Yesterday, I said in my column that things are looking good for Wall Street, based on how the market behaved in previous years, when there were similar conditions as today. But after a sluggish start, we're already seeing comments on social networks that the good times have ended, the rate cuts won’t coming so early this year - if any - and that a disastrous year is on the way. As I have no personal talent for panic, and have absolutely no idea what the indices will be like at the end of the day, let alone at the end of the month, I'll stay within the bounds of yesterday’s session.

The U.S. stock market started 2024 in the red. Big tech dragged down the S&P500 (-0.6%) and the Nasdaq 100 (-1.7%). The Dow Jones took advantage of the situation and gained 0.07% to set a new record. It was supported by the highly defensive healthcare sector, thanks to Amgen, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth. Meanwhile, Apple fell by 3.6% and the rest of tech followed in the red. When America's seven biggest market capitalizations fall together, it's more complicated.

Apple's misfortune is due to a change in recommendation by Barclays, which now advises its clients to underweight the stock, valued at USD 161 (versus USD 192.53 before the previous day's session). The research firm believes that the company’s growth will remain modest, and that its juicy services division should be less flamboyant due to regulatory pressure mounting everywhere. I would add that among the many predictions for 2024 that have been circulating lately, we often find Apple's lackluster performance, and the fact that, unlike its noisy, mega-capitalized brethren, it has been rather quiet on the artificial intelligence front in recent months. This leads some to believe that Microsoft could steal the scepter of the world's leading capitalization in the near future. As of last night, Apple was worth $2,900 billion and Microsoft $2,760 billion, a gap reduced to 5%. The group founded by Bill Gates is still surfing on its pioneering AI offensive with ChatGPT, without, for the moment, having to suffer any economic-ethical-regulatory backlash.

In Europe, the Paris and London stock exchanges started the year down by less than 0.2%, while Brussels and Frankfurt clawed back a few points. The only real lag was on the Amsterdam AEX, which was weighed down by a 2.5% drop in ASML and ASM International. The two stars of the semiconductor production machinery sector were hit hard by confirmation of the US diplomatic offensive to restrict exports of cutting-edge equipment to China.

Investors are awaiting the publication of the minutes of the Fed's last meeting, the one that reinforced the market's feeling that key rate cuts were fast approaching in the United States. Will investors find any new lessons there? Answer at 2.00 pm. Elsewhere in the news, oil's early-week rebound has suddenly deflated. Black gold is fluctuating with tensions in the Red Sea, but the strength of US shale oil production has reduced its sensitivity to events in the Middle East. In China, investors continue to interpret micro-signals in the absence of macro-growth. For example, the video game sector, which was struggling a few weeks ago due to increasing restrictions, regained some ground after the dismissal of the a senior official in charge of regulating the sector.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, the Japanese stock markets are still closed and will not reopen until tomorrow. South Korea is being battered by its large technology sector, in the wake of the Nasdaq. Taiwan and Australia are also down sharply. India is holding up a little better, but is still down. European leading indicators are firmly in the red and so are futures on Wall Street indices.

Today's economic highlights:

The day begins with the Swiss Manufacturing PMI, German Unemployment, US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS job offers are on the agenda, before the minutes of the latest Fed meeting. The full agenda is here. 

The dollar is stable at EUR 0.9152 and GBP 0.7913. The ounce of gold hovers around USD 2050. Oil fell sharply but is slowing recovering, with Brent North Sea crude at USD 76.68 a barrel and WTI US light crude at USD 71.15. The yield on 10-year US debt climbed back to 3.93%. Bitcoin is trading at USD 45,400.

In corporate news:

Pfizer gains 1.2% in pre-market trading and Moderna advanced 2.9% after having already gained 13.1% the previous day, following the upgrade of Oppenheimer's recommendation to "outperform" on the stock and the laboratory's confirmation of its sales growth target for 2025.

Alphabet and Meta Platforms are likely to have paid the fines imposed by Russian courts, suggests the Russian state bailiffs' debtor database consulted by Reuters on Wednesday.

KKR - BrightSpring Health Services, a healthcare services platform backed by the US investment fund, filed for an initial public offering in New York on Tuesday evening, reviving its IPO project more than a year after it was put on hold due to economic uncertainties.

Walt Disney announced on Wednesday that investment firm ValueAct Capital will advise on its strategy in the battle with activist investor Nelson Peltz at the 2024 annual meeting.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Agilent Technologies : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Ameriprise Financial : Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 355 to USD 452.
  • Aptiv : Baird downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 105 to USD 96.
  • Amazon.com : D.A. Davidson maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 157 to USD 195.
  • American Express Company : Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and raises the target price from USD 155 to USD 200.
  • Atlassian Corporation : Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 195 to USD 240.
  • Astrazeneca : Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from GBX 12500 to GBX 11000.
  • Avantor : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Bio-Rad Laboratories : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Blackstone : Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy with a price target raised from USD 115 to USD 128.
  • Broadcom : Baptista Research maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from USD 957.80 to USD 1198.
  • Burberry Group : Stifel downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from GBX 1950 to GBX 1550.
  • Capital One Financial Corporation : Evercore ISI maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 119 to USD 152.
  • Citigroup : Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 58.
  • Citizens Financial Group : Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and raises the target price from USD 25 to USD 35.
  • Cme Group : Goldman Sachs downgrades to sell from neutral with a price target reduced from USD 217 to USD 195.
  • Danaher Corporation : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Dexcom : Wolfe Research maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 115 to USD 145.
  • Discover Financial Services : Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 104 to USD 129.
  • Expedia Group : Wolfe Research maintains its underperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 90 to USD 120.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp : Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and raises the target price from USD 26 to USD 38.
  • First Quantum Minerals : BNP Paribas Exane maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 18 to CAD 11.60.
  • Gsk : Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from GBX 1550 to GBX 1900. Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 38.50 to USD 48.
  • Hologic : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Huntington Bancshares : Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line with a price target raised from USD 10.50 to USD 15.
  • Howden Joinery Group : Investec downgrades to hold from buy with a target price raised from GBX 800 to GBX 845.
  • Icon : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Intercontinental Hotels Group : Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from 5766 to GBX 6900.
  • Iqvia Holdings : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Keurig Dr Pepper : Morgan Stanley downgrades to equal weight from overweight with a target price of USD 37.
  • Laboratory Corporation Of America Holdings : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Magna International : Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of CAD 77. Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 73 to USD 58.
  • Mettler-Toledo International : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • M&T Bank Corporation : Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and raises the target price from USD 121 to USD 146.
  • Northern Trust Corporation : Wolfe Research downgrades to underperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 85.
  • Pnc Financial Services Group : Evercore ISI maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 134 to USD 180.
  • Prudential Financial : JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 119 to USD 118.
  • Quest Diagnostics : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Raymond James Financial : Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy with a price target reduced from USD 125 to USD 116.
  • Regions Financial Corporation : Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform with a price target raised from USD 16.50 to USD 21.
  • Rocket Companies : Wells Fargo downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a price target raised from USD 13 to USD 14. Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to underperform from market perform with a target price of USD 10.75.
  • Charles Schwab : Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy with a price target raised from USD 70 to USD 71.
  • Servicenow : Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 625 to USD 755.
  • The Sherwin-Williams Company : Baird downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target raised from USD 270 to USD 300.
  • State Street Corporation : Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 69 to USD 92.
  • Symbotic : Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 40 to USD 51.
  • Synchrony Financial : Evercore ISI maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 33 to USD 44.
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Us Bancorp : Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and raises the target price from USD 34 to USD 46.
  • Verizon Communications : KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from sector weight with a target price of USD 45.
  • Waters Corporation : Wells Fargo drops coverage on the stock.
  • Wells Fargo & Company : Evercore ISI maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 47 to USD 58.
  • Yum! Brands : Barclays upgrades to overweight from equalweight with a price target raised from USD 126 to USD 146.