Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term, the term "tariffs" has become one of the most commonly used in the media. After an initial wave of shock, the focus shifted to the real-world consequences of the policy. The result was a global uproar—supporters, critics, civil society, politicians, and economists all weighed in, each in their own language, like a modern-day Tower of Babel. For once, everyone was affected.

Once the rhetoric gave way to real impact, the financial markets were the first to react. The panic signals from equities and bonds forced the Trump administration to roll back several of the measures already in place. Now, as Trump marks 100 days in office, we enter a new phase—one in which macroeconomic data will begin to reflect the tangible effects of the trade war. No longer just a threat, it’s becoming a real economic drag.

Yesterday, all six U.S. economic indicators released came in below expectations. Job creation and consumer confidence were especially disappointing, even against already modest forecasts. In China, PMI data released last night showed a slowdown in April, following a brief March rebound driven by tariff concerns. And in Japan, new figures this morning revealed a sharper-than-expected decline in industrial production in March.

While not all upcoming statistics will be negative, the overall picture is one of mounting pressure on the global economy.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a key moment, with a flood of economic data. Some figures will look back—such as Q1 GDP in the U.S. and Europe, and U.S. household income and spending for March. Others offer a more current or forward-looking view: U.S. mortgage volume, the Chicago PMI, and the PCE inflation index, a closely watched measure by the Federal Reserve. Despite being slightly delayed (March figures were already available on April 10), the PCE index more accurately reflects the actual prices paid by consumers. It’s one of the Fed’s preferred inflation measures and is highly influential with investors.

That said, interpreting this data can be tricky—especially in the U.S. Weak economic numbers don’t always drag markets down. Why? Because investors may see bad data as a reason for the Fed to cut interest rates. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, boost market liquidity, and encourage risk-taking. This brings us back to the old paradox: “bad news is good news”—where poor economic data actually fuels stock market optimism due to expectations of Fed support.

The trade war is also affecting corporate earnings. As companies release their Q1 results, many executives are cautious in their guidance—particularly in sectors vulnerable to tariffs. This was evident yesterday and this morning with General Motors and Mercedes, despite the Trump administration’s decision to ease some of the automotive tariffs. Another sign of shifting sentiment is in the AI sector: Super Micro Computer, once a market darling, delivered sharply lower-than-expected forecasts and dropped 15% in after-hours trading. U.S. tech will be back in the spotlight tonight with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the close.

April 30 is also packed with earnings in Europe, especially ahead of the May 1 public holiday in many countries.

Meanwhile, global markets are in recovery mode. The S&P 500 has posted six straight days of gains, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have declined for seven consecutive sessions. Since its April 7 low (4,835 points), the S&P has risen 15% and is now down just 5.5% year-to-date. Still, Trump’s second term has had the worst market start since Gerald Ford in 1974. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 has also rallied for six sessions, gaining 13% since April 7 and up 3.4% for the year—outperforming the U.S. index by roughly 9 percentage points.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan and Australia resumed their uptrend (+0.3%), while India, China, and Taiwan traded sideways. South Korea dropped more than 1%, weighed down by several major tech names after mixed earnings reports. Western futures are slightly lower this morning as caution returns to the U.S. tech sector. Still, with so many earnings releases today, individual European stocks may diverge based on company-specific news.

Today's economic highlights:

There is a heavy schedule of statistics today, with the first reading of US GDP for Q1 2025, the ADP employment report, PCE inflation and existing home sales figures. In Europe, there is no shortage in data either with Q1 2025 GDP figures and inflation data. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar: 0.8787 EUR and 0.7485 GBP
  • Bund/OAT spread: 72 points (+0.7%)
  • VIX: 24.17 (-1%)
  • Gold: $3,289
  • Brent: $62.59
  • 10-year US: 4.164%
  • Bitcoin: $94,458

In corporate news:

  • Blackstone: Blackstone is considering selling Sphera, a provider of sustainability software and consulting services, for $3 billion, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
  • Booking Holdings: The online travel agency reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter, as sustained demand for international travel helped offset weak activity in the U.S.
  • Bxp: The real estate investment firm said on Tuesday it expects a mixed second quarter after reporting lower-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, as stable leasing activity was weighed down by higher expenses.
  • Caterpillar: Considered a reliable barometer of the U.S. economy, Caterpillar reported quarterly earnings below expectations on Wednesday due to weak demand for construction equipment. It presented two scenarios for annual sales guidance, one of which includes the potential impact of major tariffs. The stock is volatile in pre-market trading.
  • Freshworks: Freshworks raised its annual revenue and profit guidance above analysts' expectations on Tuesday, following quarterly results supported by growing demand for its AI-based software services.
  • Ge Healthcare Technologies: Ge Healthcare Technologies cut its full-year profit forecast on Wednesday, as the medical device manufacturer faces increasing pressure from the escalating trade war.
  • General Motors, Ford: President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday granting automakers that manufacture vehicles in the U.S. partial relief from the new 25% sector-wide tariffs, giving them time to relocate supply chains for parts.
  • Grab Holdings: Grab reported quarterly revenue above expectations on Tuesday evening, benefiting from strong spending on its ride-hailing and food delivery platforms despite economic uncertainty.
  • Humana: Humana jumps 6.8% in pre-market trading after the health insurer beat Wall Street expectations for first-quarter earnings, helped in part by lower costs.
  • Intel: Intel reported on Tuesday that several clients have expressed interest in testing chip production using a new manufacturing process under development.
  • Jetblue Airways, United Airlines: Jetblue and United are negotiating an alliance, according to three industry sources cited by Reuters. Jetblue has been seeking partnerships since a federal judge blocked its alliance with American Airlines in 2023.
  • Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm: These three companies are set to release their quarterly earnings after Wall Street closes.
  • Mondelez: Mondelez beat estimates for first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, notably due to price increases.
  • Snap: Snap falls 13.3% in pre-market trading after announcing on Tuesday that it would not issue financial guidance for the second quarter due to economic uncertainty, as U.S. tariffs threaten to disrupt the global economy and advertising budgets.
  • Starbucks: Starbucks is facing challenges in reviving its business, CEO Brian Niccol said on Tuesday, after the U.S. coffee giant reported disappointing comparable sales and earnings. Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven up costs and slowed demand in the U.S. The stock drops 7% in pre-market trading.
  • Super Micro Computer: The AI server manufacturer cut its revenue and profit forecasts for the third quarter on Tuesday due to delays in client spending, fueling concerns of declining investment in the sector. In pre-market trading, Super Micro drops 15%, while Nvidia falls 1.7% and AMD 0.7%.
  • Visa: Visa reported quarterly earnings above expectations on Tuesday, driven by strong growth in card payment volumes. The company also announced a $30 billion share buyback program. The stock is up 1.6% in after-hours trading.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • American Tower: Citigroup maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $235 to $260.
  • Armstrong World Industries: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $165 to $178.
  • Booking Holdings: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and raises the price target from $5,000 to $5,700.
  • Brown & Brown: Jefferies maintains its hold rating and lowers the price target from $109 to $106.
  • First Solar: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from $200 to $187.
  • Globant: Guggenheim maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $220 to $150.
  • Mondelez International: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the price target from $69 to $71.
  • NetApp: Barclays upgrades to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $115.
  • Nucor: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight rating and lowers the price target from $140 to $134.
  • NXP Semiconductors: Fubon Securities maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $235 to $212.
  • Paccar: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and lowers the price target from $105 to $90.
  • Qorvo: Barclays maintains its equal weight rating and raises the price target from $60 to $70.
  • Snap: B. Riley Securities maintains a neutral rating and lowers the price target from $12 to $10.
  • Sofi Technologies: Barclays maintains its equal weight rating and raises the price target from $11 to $12.
  • Spotify Technology: Barclays maintains its overweight rating and lowers the price target from $710 to $650.
  • Sysco: Guggenheim maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $85 to $82.
  • Tesla: Founder Securities maintains its buy rating.
  • The Coca-Cola Company: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the price target from $73 to $76.
  • Twilio: Baird maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from $160 to $130.
  • United Parcel Service: Bernstein maintains its outperform rating and raises the price target from $132 to $133.