Investor jitters over unpredictable trade policies and a mixed bag of corporate earnings are weighing on Wall Street this morning, with futures on the main Wall Street indices slightly bearish. The Trump administration's trade policy has been as clear as mud. Recent chatter about reducing tariffs on China was quickly tempered by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who assured that any tariff cuts wouldn't be a one-way street.

Meanwhile, China is nudging the U.S. to scrap all unilateral tariffs. Adding to the drama, the administration has launched an investigation into the national security risks of importing medium- and heavy-duty trucks, hinting at possible new tariffs. 

Earnings season has been a rollercoaster, with some companies pulling their financial forecasts due to trade uncertainties. Southwest Airlines saw its shares nosedive by 3% after retracting forecasts. IBM shares took a 6% hit after shelving 15 government contracts in a cost-cutting move. On the flip side, ServiceNow's stock soared 8.8% after beating first-quarter profit expectations. 

The financial markets'  foundation remains shaky, akin to a house of cards built on improvisation. This is reflected in the bond market. U.S. yields stay elevated, as inflation fears linger despite recent reassurances.

Either the White House is a master of strategy, fooling us all, or it's winging it with reckless abandon. Personally, I lean towards the chaos theory—it's less humiliating than being a pigeon. It's high time we abandon this circus and pursue something more constructive.

Yesterday, Wall Street rose on relief that Donald Trump was ready to ease its trade war with China, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.7%. European indices soared (CAC40 up 2.1%, DAX up 3.1% thanks to SAP SE's stellar results).

Today's session is a deluge of earnings reports. Here's a gripe: could companies stop releasing results simultaneously on Thursdays? It's exhausting and stressful for journalists like me, already anxious about AI taking our jobs. On April 24, a staggering 299 companies worth at least $500 million are reporting in Europe, Canada, and the U.S. That's excessive. The global top 10? Alphabet, Procter, T-Mobile US, Merck & Co, Nestlé, Roche, PepsiCo, Unilever, Gilead, and Sanofi.

In other developments, the White House is reportedly backtracking on auto tariffs after intense lobbying by U.S. manufacturers, particularly affecting Chinese spare parts. On the oil front, OPEC+ discord over production quotas has led to falling prices, with Kazakhstan prioritizing its interests over the cartel's. Meanwhile, Trump claims a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is near, despite unresolved border issues.

In Asia-Pacific, markets were mixed this morning. Japan and Australia were up around 0.5%, while others saw moderate declines. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific index is coming off four days of gains, so today's dip is a mere blip. The sell-off is linked to Bessent's cautious optimism: a China de-escalation is likely, but resolving the dispute will take time, with no unilateral proposals on the table. European indices are treading water.

I'm stepping away from this column for a brief week-long hiatus. But fear not, dear readers, as my esteemed colleague, Grégoire Legrand, will be at the helm during my absence. Rest assured, you're in capable hands.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: new car registrations in the EU27; machine tool orders in Japan; consumer confidence in France; in Germany, the IFO business climate, IFO current assessment, and IFO expectations; in the United States, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, durable goods orders, new unemployment claims, existing home sales, and existing home sales GM. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,165
  • Gold: $3,337
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $65.80 (WTI) $62.94
  • United States 10 years: 4.34%
  • BITCOIN: $92,473

In corporate news:

  • Boeing's Q1 loss narrowed to $37 million despite Chinese delivery refusals.
  • IBM reported Q1 2025 results, leading to a decline in shares.
  • Southwest Airlines reported Q1 2025 results, leading to a decline in shares.
  • Robert Half reported Q1 2025 results, leading to a decline in shares.
  • Eli Lilly is suing four drug manufacturers for copies of weight loss drugs.
  • Tesla plans a robotaxi launch in Austin amidst investor skepticism, while former DEI officials call for resistance against Musk's cutbacks.
  • PepsiCo has reduced its annual profit and growth forecasts for 2025 due to economic volatility and trade war turmoil.
  • Hasbro surpassed quarterly revenue estimates due to strong digital gaming demand and extended its Disney partnership.
  • UPS has expanded its healthcare business by acquiring Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion.
  • Texas Instruments reported a 7% increase in Q1 EPS and forecasts second-quarter revenue above estimates.
  • Chevron intends to drill a new exploration well in Namibia between 2026 and 2027.
  • Freeport-McMoRan Inc reported a decline in first-quarter profit due to lower production and sales figures.

Today's top earnings: Alphabet, Procter & Gamble, T-Mobile US, Merck & Co, PepsiCo, Union Pacific, Gilead, Comcast, Fiserv, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Intel...

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Avery Dennison Corporation: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 205 to USD 172.
  • Cadence Design Systems, Inc.: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a target price raised from USD 300 to USD 325.
  • Edwards Lifesciences Corporation: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 73 to USD 80.
  • Ge Aerospace: President Capital Management Corp upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price raised from USD 193 to USD 220.
  • Huntington Bancshares Incorporated: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold with a price target reduced from USD 19 to USD 17.50.
  • Kimberly-Clark Corporation: Argus Research Company upgrades to buy from hold.
  • M&T Bank Corporation: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold with a target price reduced from USD 225 to USD 210.
  • Servicenow, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 1000.
  • Stifel Financial Corp.: Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 108.
  • Texas Instruments Incorporated: Summit Insights Group LLC downgrades to hold from buy.
  • Weatherford International Plc: Raymond James downgrades to outperform from strong buy with a price target reduced from USD 73 to USD 69.
  • Amphenol Corporation: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from 70 to USD 88.
  • Antero Resources Corporation: Zacks maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 44 to USD 35.
  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Zacks maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 28 to USD 20.
  • At&T Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 23 to USD 28.
  • Enphase Energy, Inc.: Truist Securities maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 65 to USD 49.
  • Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.: Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 111 to USD 79.
  • Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.: Truist Securities maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 220 to USD 175.
  • Pegasystems Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 85 to USD 105.
  • Robert Half Inc.: Jefferies maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 56 to USD 35.
  • Tesla, Inc.: Phillip Securities maintains its sell recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 265 to USD 200.
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.: Raymond James maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 667 to USD 525.
  • Travel + Leisure Co.: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 54 to USD 39.
  • Vertiv Holdings Co: Huatai Research maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 146 to USD 99.