As they occur so regularly it is difficult to keep track of changes in tariffs. Fortunately for us, we can rely on the Yale University research laboratory, which monitors them in detail.

From 2.4% to 17.8%

According to estimates published on their website, which take into account the latest changes—the reduction in tariffs on Chinese products from 145% to 30%—the effective tariff rate in the US would rise from 2.4% to 17.8%, which would be a record high since 1934.

Estimated effective tariff rate in the United States. Source: Yale Budget Lab

In other words, despite the relaxing seen over the past month – suspension of reciprocal tariffs, exemptions on smartphones and computers, agreement with the United Kingdom and pause with China – tariffs are still historically high and the sharp rise will have significant impacts. According to Yale University's estimates, inflation would rise by 1.7% in the short term (without any rate adjustments by the Fed). This estimate is also based on the assumption that each country's share of US imports remains unchanged.

A decoupling that continues

However, tariffs will obviously lead to a change in each country's share of US imports, and in particular a decline in China's share. This trend already began during Donald Trump's first term. The tariffs imposed on China have led to a reorganization of value chains, with some production capacity shifting from China to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, while Chinese products are transiting through third countries such as Mexico.

As a result, the share of Chinese products in US imports has already been halved, falling from 22% at the start of Donald Trump's first term to 11% in the first quarter of 2025.

And there is every reason to believe that this trend will continue. To date, Chinese products are the most heavily taxed (at 30%). Furthermore, the US and China are engaged in a competition for the position of world's leading power. In this race, each is trying to reduce its dependence on the other.

China is therefore trying to diversify its purchases of agricultural raw materials and energy. It was with this aim in mind that Beijing welcomed representatives from 33 Latin American countries this week.

Meanwhile, the United States is launching several initiatives aimed at diversifying its supplies of critical metals and rare earths: an agreement with Ukraine, the relaunch of certain projects in the United States, and authorization for seabed mining. However, given the time needed to develop these projects, it will be very difficult for the US to do without China, which controls most of this value chain (extraction + refining).

US companies are also beginning to reorganize. Apple, for example, plans to assemble all iPhones destined for the US market in India by the end of 2026.

It remains to be seen how the current negotiations between the US and China will turn out. As a reminder, in early 2020, the "first trade war" ended with a so-called phase 1 agreement between the US and China. This agreement has not really been respected and has not prevented the downward trend in China's share of US imports.