Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból (2021.05.06-05.12.)

NEMZETKÖZI SZEMELVÉNYEK

Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból

2021. május 6. - május 12.

	TARTALOMJEGYZÉK
1.	MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ ...................................................................................................	3
2.	PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK ....................................................................................	4
3.	MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS...................................................................	6
4.	FINTECH, KRIPTOVALUTÁK, MESTERSÉGES INTELLIGENCIA..........................................................	7
5.	ZÖLD PÉNZÜGYEK, FENNTARTHATÓ FEJLŐDÉS .............................................................................	8
6.	MAKROGAZDASÁG .........................................................................................................................	9
7.	ÁLTALÁNOS GAZDASÁGPOLITIKA ................................................................................................	10
8.	KÖLTSÉGVETÉSI POLITIKA, ADÓZÁS .............................................................................................	12
9.	SZANÁLÁS......................................................................................................................................	14
10.	STATISZTIKA ..................................................................................................................................	14

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1. MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ

Review of Monetary Policy Frameworks	IMF
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/News/Speech/2021/sp031621-tobias-adrian.ashx	Speech
Remarks by Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets
Department of the IMF, during Central Banking Magazine's Reserve Management Americas Workshop
on 16 March 2021.
The economic outlook and implications for monetary policy	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r210507a.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech (via webcast) by Ms Michelle W Bowman, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal	Speech
Reserve System, at The Colorado Forum, Denver, Colorado, 5 May 2021.
ECB updates treatment of leverage ratio in the Eurosystem monetary policy counterparty framework,	ECB
07/05/2021	Press Release
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210507~ff62148da1.en.html
Related annex:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.2021_23_f_sign.en.pdf?b9c275c0846c3f8efca3d53f3
60d2db7
Banks and negative interest rates, 12/05/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2549~bc0dc3b89f.en.pdf?b011ec33f20a6a5fb53	Publication
b587ddee22bff
In this paper, we survey the nascent literature on the transmission of negative policy rates. We discuss
the theory of how the transmission depends on bank balance sheets, and how this changes once policy
rates become negative. We review the growing evidence that negative policy rates are special because
the pass-through to banks' retail deposit rates is hindered by a zero lower bound. We summarize
existing work on the impact of negative rates on banks' lending and securities portfolios, and the
consequences for the real economy. Finally, we discuss the role of different "initial" conditions when
the policy rate becomes negative, and potential interactions between negative policy rates and other
unconventional monetary policies.
Keywords: deposits, negative interest rates, zero lower bound, bank lending, bank risk taking, euro-area
heterogeneity
Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations? 10/05/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2547~c0217ac1e0.en.pdf?c2e0d4474731abeb96	Publication
1cbe5b2ceb68e0
This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations
through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google
Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors' attention to its communication. We conduct
several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the
information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows
that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation
expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between
market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings
add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel.
Keywords: website attention, high-frequency identification, forward guidance, information demand,
information and news channel

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Reserves system puts independence at risk, 11/05/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/05/reserves-system-puts-independence-at-	Commentary
risk/?utm_source=omfifupdate
Many advanced-economy central banks have resigned themselves to a probable elevated level of
reserves for the foreseeable future. This brings central banks into the fiscal equation in a more direct
way and exposes them to political repercussions that could endanger their independence. To avoid this,
central banks may need to shrink their balance sheets and level of reserves. Straightforward in theory,
awkward in practice.
Commentary: ECB's Lane downplays prospect of durable inflation, 06/05/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/05/ecbs-lane-downplays-the-prospect-of-durable-	Commentary
inflation/?utm_source=omfifupdate
Prolonged weakness in the labour market will offset inflationary pressures in the euro area, Philip Lane,
the European Central Bank's chief economist, told an OMFIF briefing yesterday. As a result, the ECB is
ready to maintain large-scale asset purchases if warranted by economic and financial conditions. Lane
also hinted that the ECB may adapt its stance on 'market neutrality' as part of its strategy review due in
September.

2. PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK

Interview with Reuters	ECB/SSM
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/interviews/date/2021/html/ssm.in210506~ec5fa1b	Interview
cac.en.html
Interview with Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco
Canepa, Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt, 6 May 2021.
Rebuilding resilience - the financial system after the Covid crisis	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r210512b.htm	Central Bankers'
Keynote address by Mr Klaas Knot, President of the Netherlands Bank, before the International	Speech
Symposium of the National Association for Business Economics, 11 May 2021.
The global financial cycle, capital flows, and policy responses	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r210512d.htm	Central Bankers'
Welcome address by Mr Luigi Federico Signorini, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the	Speech
G20 RBWC Workshop "Towards a more resilient international financial architecture", Online event,
10 May 2021.
The Commission launches a public consultation on a retail investment strategy for Europe,	EU
11/05/2021	Consultation
https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12755-Retail-Investment-
Strategy/public-consultation_en
How Stock Markets Respond to Social Unrest, 10/05/2021	IMF
https://blogs.imf.org/2021/05/10/how-stock-markets-respond-to-social-unrest/	Blog Post
Blog post by Philip Barrett (Economist in the Research Department of the IMF) and Sophia Chen
(Economist in the Research Department of the IMF)
Economies in the Financial Spotlight in 2021, 06/05/2021	IMF
https://blogs.imf.org/2021/05/06/economies-in-the-financial-spotlight-in-2021/	Blog Post

4

Investing in crises, 12/05/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2548~a737fee838.en.pdf	Publication
We investigate asset returns around banking crises in 44 advanced and emerging economies from 1960
to 2018. In contrast to the view that buying assets during banking crises is a profitable long-run strategy,
we find returns of equity and other asset classes generally underperform after banking crises. While
prices are depressed during crises and partially recover after acute stress ends, consistent with theories
of fire sales and intermediary-based asset pricing, we argue that investors do not fully anticipate the
consequences of debt overhang, which result in lower long-run dividends. Our results on bank stock
underperformance suggest that government-funded bank recapitalizations can often lead to substantial
taxpayer losses.
Keywords: investments, financial crises, returns, fire sales
Market failures in market-based finance, 07/05/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2545~8556624017.en.pdf?f8c30622ae72776fe5	Publication
1dbd4c92bbc703
We build a three-period model to investigate market failures in the market-based financial system.
Institutional investors (IIs), such as insurance companies and pension funds, have liabilities offering
guaranteed returns and operate under a risk-sensitive solvency constraint. They seek to allocate funds
to asset managers (AMs) that provide diversification when investing in risky assets. At the interim date,
AMs that run investment funds face investor redemptions and liquidate risky assets and/or deplete cash
holdings, if available. Dealer banks can purchase risky assets, thus providing market liquidity. The latter
ultimately determines equilibrium allocations. In the competitive equilibrium, AMs suffer from a
pecuniary externality and hold inefficiently low amounts of cash.
Keywords: market-based finance; regulation; investment funds; insurance companies and pension
funds; market liquidity
The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE, 10/05/2021	ESRB
https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrb.wp118~3638ff0233.en.pdf?17b343127668d25c5e110	Publication
4f030c6c0cc
In line with the recent policy discussion on the use of macroprudential measures to respond to
crossborder risks arising from capital flows, this paper tries to quantify to what extent macroprudential
policies (MPPs) have been able to stabilize capital flows in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
(CESEE) - a region that experienced a substantial boom-bust cycle in capital flows amid the global
financial crisis and where policymakers had been quite active in adopting MPPs already before that
crisis. To study the dynamic responses of capital flows to MPP shocks, we propose a novel
regimeswitching factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model. It allows to capture potential
structural breaks in the policy regime and to control - besides domestic macroeconomic quantities -
for the impact of global factors such as the global financial cycle.
Keywords: capital flows, macroprudential policy, global factors, regimeswitching FAVAR, CESEE
Investment funds, monetary policy, and the global financial cycle, 10/05/2021	ESRB
https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrb.wp119~798045b176.en.pdf?334f78d4d7d2d4e8c1688	Publication
4162fbf8cda
This paper studies the role of international investment funds in the transmission of global financial
conditions to the euro area using structural Bayesian vector auto regressions. While cross-border
banking sector capital flows receded significantly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, portfolio
flows of investors actively searching for yield on financial markets world-wide gained importance during
the post-crisis "second phase of global liquidity" (Shin, 2013). The analysis presented in this paper shows
that a loosening of US monetary policy leads to higher investment fund inflows to equities and debt
globally. Focussing on the euro area, these inflows do not only imply elevated asset prices, but also

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