Futures suggest a cautious start to the new quarter. Investors are in a holding pattern, eyeing a slew of macroeconomic data, with U.S. employment figures on Friday being the main event. Today, they will digest several key statistics, including the PMI and ISM services activity surveys and the JOLTS job vacancy survey. The JOLTS survey, an official measure from the U.S. Department of Labor, provides data for August, offering a slightly outdated but still valuable snapshot of the labor market. Nike is also releasing its results later today.

After a rocky Monday, the S&P 500 rebounded to close at a record 5,762 points, marking its 40th record close this year. U.S. investors remained unperturbed by the Chinese stock market's frenzy and the European session's lackluster performance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments in Nashville, which tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts while reassuring about the U.S. economy's trajectory, seemed to strike the right balance. Investors appear to prefer a steady economic outlook with gradual rate cuts over drastic measures in response to economic distress. The debate between proponents of a 50 basis point rate cut and advocates for a 25 basis point easing in November could reignite with Friday's employment data release.

Meanwhile, the European automotive sector took a hit, with Stellantis plummeting 15% and Renault also suffering. Stellantis, once celebrated for its turnaround and impressive margins, is now grappling with internal upheaval and a shifting global car market. In contrast, China has entered a holiday period after a bullish spree.

September was a positive month for markets, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 each gaining over 2%. European indices like the German DAX and Belgian Bel20 also saw similar gains. However, the Copenhagen OMX fell 10.5%, weighed down by Novo Nordisk's decline.

Looking at 2024, China's MSCI index leads with a 26.1% gain, thanks to recent stimulus measures. The S&P 500 follows with a 20.8% rise, and the Nasdaq 100 is up 19.2%. Several European indices have posted gains between 15-20%, but the French CAC40 lags with a modest 1.23% increase, or 5.6% including dividends, hampered by a downturn in luxury stocks.

In geopolitical news, Israeli ground units have entered Lebanon for "targeted" actions against Hezbollah, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.

In Asia-Pacific markets, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo climbed 2.0%, the Shanghai Composite surged 8.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 2.4%. Sydney's S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.8%. European indices are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 inching up 0.1%. Wall Street futures are hovering just below zero. Wall Street's current demeanor suggests a market that is cautiously optimistic, navigating global uncertainties with a steady hand.

Economic highlights:

The US manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing index and JOLTS job offers are on the agenda today. In Europe, the final manufacturing PMI indices for September are being published for the major economies, as well as the first estimate of inflation in the EU in September at 11:00. The full calendar is here.

The dollar jumped to EUR 0.9030 and GBP 0.7505. The ounce of gold is up to USD 2,654. Oil is down, with North Sea Brent at USD 70.87 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 67.17. The yield on 10-year US debt is at 3.74%. Bitcoin is worth USD 63,500.

In corporate news:

  • CVS Health is reportedly considering various options, including a possible demerger, according to Reuters.
  • PepsiCo is in talks to buy tortilla maker Siete Foods for more than $1 billion, according to the WSJ.
  • Kimberly-Clark is considering selling its international tissue business, according to Bloomberg.
  • Amgen faces a lawsuit for hiding a $10.7 billion tax bill.
  • Amazon wins partial dismissal of FTC antitrust complaint.
  • Barrick Gold and the Malian government work to find a solution for the Loulo and Gounkoto gold mines.
  • eBay wins dismissal of U.S. lawsuit alleging sale of harmful products.
  • Eversource Energy completes the sale of its offshore wind energy business.
  • Cerebras, a company specializing in AI chips, files for an initial public offering in the United States.
    Today's main earnings reports: Nike, Paychex, McCormick...

Analyst recommendations:

  • Antero Resources Corporation: Wells Fargo downgrades to underweight from overweight with a price target reduced from USD 34 to USD 25.
  • Aptiv Plc: Fox Advisors LLC downgrades to equalweight from outperform.
  • Atlassian Corporation: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 200.
  • Cdw Corporation: Citi downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price reduced from USD 250 to USD 245.
  • Coterra Energy Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to buy from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 32.20 to USD 30.70.
  • Ford Motor Company: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 12 to USD 13.
  • Hp Inc.: Citi downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 37.
  • Newmont Corporation: Veritas Investment Research upgrades to buy from reduce with a price target raised from CAD 72 to CAD 88.
  • Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a target price of USD 100.
  • Stellantis N.v.: AlphaValue/Baader Europe downgrades to reduce from buy with a price target reduced from 20.50 to EUR 13.
  • Synovus Financial Corp.: Wells Fargo downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 48 to USD 46.
  • The Interpublic Group Of Companies, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 36 to USD 33.
  • Walt Disney Company (The): Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
  • Estee Lauder: Consumer Edge Research maintains its equalweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 122 to USD 93.
  • Hca Healthcare, Inc.: Baptista Research maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 344 to USD 424.
  • Kellanova: Consumer Edge Research maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 64 to USD 83.50.
  • Philip Morris International, Inc.: Consumer Edge Research maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 114 to USD 137.
  • Super Micro Computer, Inc.: Wedbush maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 620 to USD 62.
  • The Clorox Company: Consumer Edge Research maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 151 to USD 184.
  • Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc: Oddo BHF downgrades to underperform from neutral with a price target reduced from GBP 1.55 to GBP 1.
  • Greggs Plc: Panmure Liberum downgrades to hold from buy with a target price raised from GBX 3100 to GBX 3300.
  • Renishaw Plc: Investec upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from GBX 3100 to GBX 4180.