In the high-stakes game of economic forecasting, all eyes are fixed on tomorrow’s release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The smart money, according to the Wall Street Journal’s consensus, is on a robust addition of 214,000 jobs in November, a figure that would signify a notable rebound from the paltry 12,000 jobs added in October—a month plagued by industrial action at Boeing and inclement weather in the U.S. Southeast.

In the latest dispatch from the labor front, this week’s jobless claims have ticked up to 224,000, surpassing the 215,000 economists had penciled in. It’s a minor blip on the radar, but a blip nonetheless.

Wall Street continues to defy gravity, drawing in global savings at a rate that would make a black hole envious, all while the American economy hums along nicely. This is happening despite interest rates that have been more stick than carrot. Jerome Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, yesterday lent his voice to the choir of optimism, remarking on the economy’s sterling condition. He downplayed job market concerns and hinted that the Fed might not be as quick on the draw with rate cuts as some might expect. In another era, such talk might have sent the markets into a tailspin, but these are not those times. Instead, the market shrugged off Powell's comments, perhaps too entranced by the allure of President Trump's economic vision.

The risk appetite of investors is further evidenced by Bitcoin’s surge past the $100,000 mark, likely spurred by Trump’s intention to appoint Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly figure, to the helm of the SEC.

In France, the political drama has reached a crescendo with the collapse of the Barnier government, following a vote of no confidence. The ensuing questions echo those of last summer: Who will lead? How long will the interregnum last? Can France navigate its current political squalls? Michel Barnier is set to resign as Prime Minister, triggering the need for a provisional budget that will likely mirror that of 2024. Despite internal divisions, the National Assembly is expected to pass the necessary legislation to keep the fiscal ship steady. Yet, the promises of deficit reduction from the outgoing government will remain unfulfilled, with the working class bracing for tax increases and pensioners finding themselves slightly better off.

The French political turmoil has not, however, dampened the spirits of the Paris stock market, which has strung together five consecutive days of gains. The bond market has also shown resilience, with the spread between French and German 10-year yields narrowing—an indicator of investor confidence in French debt.

In Asia, South Korea grapples with political upheaval, while its stock market lags, having shed 7% since the start of the year. This contrasts sharply with the performance of the U.S. S&P500, which has soared by 27.6% over the same period, hitting record highs with aplomb.

China’s markets have taken a hit this morning, despite state media advocating for balanced growth over breakneck expansion—a sentiment that seems prudent yet falls on deaf ears among investors hungry for stimulus measures. In other Asian-Pacific markets, we see modest upticks across Japan, Taiwan, and Australia, with India enjoying a near 1% rise. European indices are also on the rise, albeit with the Stoxx Europe 600 making only a slight gain of 0.1%. Futures markets are holding steady, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing little change from their recent highs.

Today's economic highlights:

Eurozone retail sales, US Challenger layoffs, new jobless claims and the trade balance are on the calendar today. 

  • Dollar: EUR 0.9483 and GBP 0.7853
  • Ounce of gold: USD 2,647
  • Brent crude: USD 72.22
  • 10-year US bond: 4.21
  • Bitcoin: USD 103,000

In corporate news:

  • MicroStrategy and Robinhood Markets are soaring, buoyed by Bitcoin's historic surge past $100,000.
  • Cybersecurity firm SentinelOne has tumbled 15% after reporting a larger-than-expected loss for Q3 due to rising operating expenses.
  • PVH Corp., the parent of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, is down 8.3% after disappointing Q3 results and a lowered full-year profit forecast.
  • American Eagle Outfitters has dropped 15% following underwhelming Q3 sales and a bleak outlook for the current quarter.
  • Retailer Five Below has jumped 14% after raising its annual sales forecast, citing strong Black Friday weekend results.
  • Southwest Airlines is up after boosting its Q4 outlook, thanks to robust customer demand and efficiency measures.
  • Walt Disney announced a 33% increase in its annual dividend to $1 per share, offering a yield of nearly 0.9%.
  • Meta Platforms is expanding its green energy initiatives through contracts with Invenergy for solar projects and investing $10 billion in a Louisiana data center, while also resolving a data-sharing investigation in Turkey and experiencing insider share sales, including by Mark Zuckerberg, amidst a broader rise in tech stocks.
  • Synopsys shares dropped significantly after the company reported strong fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed estimates, but provided a disappointing revenue outlook for fiscal 2025 and the first quarter, leading to a decline in its stock price.
  • UnitedHealth Group's CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot in a possible targeted attack outside an investor conference in Manhattan, New York.
  • EQB reported a Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.51 and adjusted net income of $101.4 million, despite negative impacts from credit provisions in its equipment financing portfolio, and announced a dividend increase.
  • Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug Zepbound outperformrf Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in a clinical trial and UK's NICE recommending Eli Lilly's obesity drug Mounjaro for state health system coverage.
  • Microsoft and its backed company OpenAI are collaborating with Anduril Industries to enhance AI for US national security, while Microsoft also faces a Federal Trade Commission investigation for possible antitrust violations and seeks a probe into the FTC's disclosure practices.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Applovin Corporation: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 250 to USD 435.
  • Atlassian Corporation: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 260 to USD 315.
  • Chewy, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 33 to USD 40.
  • Five Below, Inc.: Truist Securities maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 88 to USD 118. L
  • Netflix, Inc.: Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 725 to USD 920.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 27 to USD 50.
  • Salesforce.com, Inc.: Cmb International Capital Corp Ltd maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 336.50 to USD 410. 
  • Samsara Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 46 to USD 63.
  • Abbvie Inc.: Daiwa Securities downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 210 to USD 180.
  • Formula One Group: Seaport Global downgrades to neutral from buy.
  • Bellway P.l.c.: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a target price of GBP 32.90.
  • Crest Nicholson Holdings Plc: JP Morgan upgrades to neutral from underweight with a target price raised from GBP 1.80 to GBP 1.90.
  • Deliveroo Plc: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from GBP 1.70 to GBP 1.92.
  • Diageo Plc: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with a target price raised from GBX 2300 to GBX 2800. 
  • Taylor Wimpey PL: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from GBP 1.70 to GBP 1.50.
  • Dollarama Inc.: National Bank Financial downgrades to sector perform from outperform with a target price of CAD 149.