Inflation data for November will also be watched on Tuesday after headline inflation hit a 45-month low in October. A continued downward trend would further the firm expectations for more rate cuts ahead after the Bank of Korea delivered a surprise back-to-back cut at its November meeting to mitigate downside risks to the economy.
ING economists see consumer price inflation ticking up to 1.9% on the year in November from 1.3% in October, but mostly due to the fuel subsidy program and its base effects. "We expect inflation to stay below 2% throughout 2025," they said.
South Korea also reports revised third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday, which come after the first print showed the economy narrowly avoided a technical recession.
Economists will weigh the overall picture painted by the releases as they assess how well-placed the Korean economy is to weather a period of heightened global trade uncertainty and potential supply-chain shocks.
REGIONAL ASIAN PMIs
Monday sees a flood of manufacturing PMI prints due for Asia, including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand. The data will provide insights on the region's manufacturing performance as the year draws to a close.
Front of mind will be the forward-looking indicators of the survey data, which will give a glimpse into how manufacturers are feeling as U.S. trade policy generates uncertainty for the global trade environment.
Many of Asia's export-reliant economies stand to get hit either directly by ramped-up U.S. tariffs or get caught in the crossfire of an intensified trade battle between Beijing and Washington.
The prior round of Asian PMIs already sent a warning about weakening manufacturing conditions across much of Asia, and another batch of soft surveys could signal dimmer economic growth prospects for the year ahead.
ASIA CPI DATA
November inflation prints are due from Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand, which are broadly expected to show moderating price pressures.
Indonesia's CPI on Monday is expected to show a further cooling of price pressures, to near the lower end of Bank Indonesia's target range of 1.5%-3.5%, ING economists said. This, however, may not be enough to convince the central bank to ease rates in December given the rupiah's weakness, they said.
Inflation data from the Philippines and Taiwan are due Thursday.
The Philippines' November inflation print will likely remain unchanged from October, ANZ economists estimate. Rice prices have fallen compared to a year ago, which should keep food inflation subdued, they said. The data is unlikely to keep the central bank from cutting rates in December, they add.
Citi research analysts think Taiwan's inflation likely showed a slight uptick to 2.0%, around the central bank's target, driven by typhoon disruptions. ANZ, on the other hand, says that headline CPI likely stayed below target, with price pressures likely to remain mild in the coming months and keep the Taiwanese central bank on the sidelines.
Most CPI items are likely to be little changed in Thailand's inflation print due Friday, Dec. 6, except slightly higher retail oil prices, Citi said. Inflation is expected to move towards the central bank's target of 1% to 3% due to a low base effect, with the Bank of Thailand likely to stand pat in December, Citi said.
SINGAPORE
On Monday, the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management will release the city-state's purchasing managers index data for October.
The data will be closely watched for signs of continuing economic momentum. Final figures for Singapore's third-quarter GDP showed that growth was primarily supported by sectors including manufacturing.
Focus is also on Singapore's October retail sales data, due Thursday, which will offer further insights into domestic consumer demand during that month.
Any references to days are in local times.
--Additional reporting by James Glynn, Megumi Fujikawa, Kwanwoo Jun, Kimberley Kao, Xiao Xiao, Amanda Lee, Ronnie Harui, Emese Bartha, Miriam Mukuru and Paul Vieira
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-29-24 1133ET
