Financial markets rallied sharply this week, buoyed by data on US inflation, the ceasefire in Gaza, and the first results from US banks and European luxury goods players. The inauguration of Donald Trump on Monday, and the intensification of the quarterly earnings season, could be a source of volatility in the days ahead, even though the latest data is encouraging.
Weekly variations*
DOW JONES INDUST...
43,487.83  +3.69%
Chart DOW JONES INDUST...
NASDAQ 100
21,441.15  +2.85%
Chart NASDAQ 100
FTSE 100
8,505.22  +3.11%
Chart FTSE 100
GOLD
$2,701.83  +0.41%
Chart GOLD
WTI
$77.48  +0.25%
Chart WTI
EURO / US DOLLAR
$1.03  +0.26%
Chart EURO / US DOLLAR
This week's gainers and losers
Gainers:

Intra-Cellular Therapies +33.02%: The biopharmaceutical company said it had reached an agreement with Sandoz to resolve patent litigation over its central nervous system disorder drug. The deal allows Sandoz to sell generic versions of the drug from July 2040. 

IonQ +20.29%: The pure player in quantum computing is back in the spotlight after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's comments, which caused billions in the capitalization of companies in the sector to evaporate. This is thanks to Microsoft's blog, which believes that 2025 is the year to be “ready for quantum computing”.

Beigene +18.88%: The US-listed Hong Kong biotech forecasts positive operating income for 2025, a first for the $21 billion-plus company.

Vistry Group
+16.83%: The British homebuilder reported adjusted sales growth of 10%, giving the share a reprieve after losing almost 40% of its share price in 2024.

Barclays +12.13%: The British bank has secured access to over 16% of Commerzbank shares, so coveted in recent months by Unicredit, which holds 28%. The bank stressed that it was not pursuing any strategic objectives with Commerzbank. Good results from US banks are also supporting this upward movement. 

Citigroup +12.03% / Wells Fargo +10.18%: The US banks, traditionally the first to publish, seduced the markets even as the sector posted 40% growth in 2024. Banks are benefiting from a favorable environment characterized by high interest rates, a euphoric stock market and an economy showing no signs of slowing down.

Losers:

FTAI Aviation -35.42%: The share price of the aeronautical maintenance and aerospace products company is the subject of heavy accusations in a report by the fund Muddy Waters Research. Muddy Waters' analysis concludes that current EBITDA margins are due to accounting manipulation.

Moderna -19.38%: The company lowered its guidance for 2025, penalized by a slow launch of its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and lower demand for COVID-19 vaccines. The guidance issued is below analysts' consensus.

Abercrombie -19%: Although the clothing retailer enjoyed a period of strong activity at the end of the year, with sales revised upwards, its shares suffered a severe correction. Investors were disappointed by the company's forecasts.

JD Sports Fashion -12%: The athletic footwear and sports fashion retailer cut its forecasts for fiscal 2025 after disappointing performances in the UK and US. The British group is suffering, as is the sector as a whole.

Eli Lilly -9.27%: Earnings disappointed investors, with sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound below expectations.

Chart Commodities
Commodities

Energy : Oil prices continued to climb this week, reaching levels not seen for several months despite the easing of geopolitical risks with the ceasefire in Gaza. Brent crude exceeded $82 a barrel, while WTI temporarily broke the $80 barrier. This rise can be explained by several factors. Firstly, the upward revision of demand forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) boosted the market. The IEA increased its demand growth forecasts for 2024 and highlighted potential supply disruption scenarios due to sanctions against Russia. OPEC, meanwhile, is forecasting solid demand growth through to 2026, with forecasts almost unchanged from last month. On the other hand, the new sanctions imposed by the United States against the Russian energy sector continue to weigh on the market.

Metals : Copper continues to advance in London, supported by speculation about the Trump administration's trade policies, suggesting that new US tariffs could rise gradually. Since the beginning of the year, copper has risen by over 5% and is trading around 9170 USD (spot price). In addition, Antofagasta, a major Chilean producer, has announced a slight increase in copper production for 2024, albeit below initial expectations. As for gold, its price climbed back above the 2,700 USD mark, boosted by a lull in US inflation, synonymous with lower rates.

Agricultural products: The price of corn remains buoyant, following downward revisions to US production forecasts. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its corn production estimate to 377.6 million tonnes (versus 384 for the December projection). This adjustment is supporting prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange, where corn is trading at 477 cents a bushel (contract expiry March 2025).

Chart Commodities
Macroeconomics

Atmosphere : A sigh of relief. The highlight of the week was undoubtedly the publication of the US consumer price index. The indicator came in slightly below expectations in its version stripped of so-called volatile items. This was excellent news for investors, enabling US indices to regain momentum against a backdrop of easing bond yields. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 set a new multi-year record. Investors are frantically awaiting Donald Trump's inauguration, scheduled for next Monday. But he won't have much time to relax, given the country's huge debt financing needs. The first maturities are due in the first quarter. We'll be keeping a close eye not only on corporate earnings, but also on upcoming auctions and their associated yields. After all, any further rise in interest rates will be detrimental to the performance of equities.

Crypto : Following in the footsteps of the stock market indices, bitcoin is back in the spotlight this week. BTC is up by almost 9%, and is now flirting with the $103,000 mark. Bitcoin Spot ETFs have recorded nearly $1.4 billion in net inflows over the past two days. Meanwhile, the XRP cryptocurrency is up +40%, taking its valuation to over $187 billion and propelling it into the third most valuable asset on the cryptocurrency market. This surge can be explained by the prospect of a Trump administration favorable to the development of the cryptosphere, especially as the company issuing the XRP crypto is quite simply the largest donor of funds to the US president's inauguration, according to the Democratic think-tank Public Citizen. Another spectacular performer was Dogecoin (DOGE), which jumped 23% to $0.41. The memecoin owes its performance mainly to Elon Musk's growing power in the American political-economic sphere, as he is a regular DOGE promoter on social networks. Investors are eager to see whether Trump's crypto promises will become reality in 2025.

Historical Chart
The stock market countdown begins ahead of Trump's inauguration
The week was off to a bad start, but the positive surprise on the US inflation front, solid results from Wall Street banks and investors' pacing ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration reversed the trend.
Next week's quarterly earnings releases pick up a little with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, GE Aerospace, Procter & Gamble and Abbott in the US, while Investor AB, Givaudan and Ericsson are expected in Europe. On the macroeconomic front, the week will be punctuated by the Davos Forum and the Bank of Japan's rate decision on Friday. Not forgetting, of course, the inauguration of the new US President on Monday, with some fiery announcements possible in the early hours of his term.
A fine weekend to our readers.
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday.
The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.