Weekly market update: Trump's Trade Deadline

Despite new record highs on Wall Street, European markets lost ground last week, pressured by concerns over looming tariffs and the recent approval of Donald Trump's massive budget plan. With U.S. markets closed Friday for Independence Day, European equities saw sell-offs ahead of July 9, when sweeping tariffs are scheduled to take effect. At this stage, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea remain uncertain about what's coming, as no trade compromise has been reached.

Weekly variations* US 500 6,279  +1.72% FIRST SOLAR, INC. +21.62% HEWLETT PACKARD ENTE... +15.92% ORACLE CORPORATION +12.88% MOLINA HEALTHCARE, I... -19.35% FORTIVE CORPORATION -25.91% CENTENE CORPORATION -38.3% DOW JONES INDUST... 44,828.53  +2.3% NASDAQ 100 22,866.97  +1.48% FTSE 100 8,822.91  +0.27% GOLD $3,336.94  +2.24% WTI $65.86  +2.31% EURO / US DOLLAR $1.18  +0.45%

This week's gainers and losers

Up: Robinhood +13.69%: The trading platform has launched tokens that will allow its EU customers to trade more than 200 US-listed stocks and funds. This is another step forward in the tokenization of finance. Datadog +17.47%: The IT infrastructure analytics platform will join the S&P 500 on July 7, replacing Juniper Network, which was acquired by HP. The stock was chosen over Robinhood and Applovin, which were also on the shortlist. Oracle +12.88%: Shares hit a record high this week after CEO Safra Catz highlighted a strong start to fiscal 2026 driven by major cloud deals—including one potentially worth over $30 billion annually starting FY28. Moderna +12.26%: The flu vaccine candidate mRNA-1010 showed 26.6% higher efficacy than GSK’s approved shot in a Phase III trial of over 40,000 adults, meeting the study's most stringent superiority criteria. Glencore +5.63%: The commodities giant is making progress toward its shareholder remuneration targets. A $1 billion buyback has been announced. In addition, the merger between Viterra, in which Glencore holds a 50% stake, and former US competitor Bunge has been finalized. Down: Centene -38.3%: The US health insurance sector is in serious crisis. Centene has withdrawn its annual forecasts due to rising medical costs and an unfavorable risk adjustment of $1.8 billion. The stock fell 30% on the day of the announcement. Fortive -25.91%: The technology group has completed the spin-off of its precision technology business. The new entity, Ralliant, joins the S&P SmallCap 600 index. A major management reorganization has also been carried out. AeroVironment -11.45%: Shares fell after the company announced $1.35 billion in public offerings of common stock and convertible senior notes to repay debt and expand production capacity. Tesla -2.56% reported Q2 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles—a 14% year-over-year decline and its steepest ever—but despite the drop, the stock price loss was limited as investors focused on upcoming models, a China rebound, and hopes for a robotaxi-driven future.

Commodities

Energy: Oil prices are slowly recovering. Brent crude rose around 2% over the week, but this was not enough to offset the 16% drop that began in late June. Markets are focused on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend. Analysts anticipate a further increase in supply of 411,000 barrels per day in August, continuing the trend of previous months. Since April, the total increase in supply by OPEC+ has reached 1.8 million barrels per day, with a target of 2.2 million barrels by the end of the third quarter. On the geopolitical front, potential nuclear talks between the US and Iran have put downward pressure on oil prices. Metals: The price of copper (spot price) briefly exceeded USD 10,000 per tonne in London this week, before falling back at the end of the week due to concerns about upcoming US tariffs. The strengthening US dollar, supported by positive economic data, also weighed on copper prices. Gold, meanwhile, is benefiting from investor appetite for safe-haven assets ahead of crucial trade deadlines in the US. At the same time, central bank gold purchases increased, reaching a total of 20 tons in May. Banks in Kazakhstan, Poland, and Turkey were the main buyers, illustrating a continuing trend among central banks to diversify their foreign exchange reserves. Agricultural products: Global cereal production is expected to set a new record in 2025, reaching 2,925 million tons, according to a report by the FAO. This 2.3% increase over 2024 is mainly due to improved yields for corn, rice, and wheat. Wheat is expected to reach 805.3 million tons thanks to better yields in India and Pakistan. Corn production is benefiting from favorable conditions in Brazil and increased acreage in India. In terms of prices, wheat rose slightly in Chicago to 556 cents per bushel (September 2025 contract), while corn began to rebound to 420 cents.

Macroeconomics

Macro: Despite a shortened week due to the Fourth of July, investors had plenty to think about, particularly on the employment front. The disappointing statistics published by ADP at the beginning of the week were quickly forgotten with the release of better-than-expected job creation figures. While interest rates rose in the wake of this, stock indices posted new records, at least in the US. Next week, all eyes will be on tariffs, as the grace period for bilateral negotiations comes to an end. Crypto: Bitcoin briefly broke through the $110,000 mark again at the beginning of the week, before falling back to around $108,000. Bitcoin Spot ETFs, meanwhile, reached an all-time high, with total assets under management now approaching $137 billion, or 6.3% of all bitcoins in circulation. This is a clear sign that institutional appetite remains strong. But the real news of the week came from Wall Street. At EthCC 2025, Robinhood surprised everyone by announcing a major strategic shift: the large-scale tokenization of stocks, ETFs, and pre-IPO securities, accessible 24/7 in Europe. The immediate result was an 11% jump in Robinhood's share price on the stock market. The platform now combines traditional brokerage with Web3 infrastructure, while strengthening its services in the United States with staking on ETH and SOL, crypto cashbacks, and improved tax management for portfolios (tax lots). This should give new momentum to crypto investors as the blockchain ecosystem gradually establishes itself at the heart of traditional finance.

European stocks had a slight edge over U.S. markets during the first half of 2025, but the recent rally on Wall Street has all but closed that gap. So what's next for the second half of the year? We'll start getting answers soon, as corporate earnings season kicks off in the coming days. That said, trade tensions could still shake things up — Donald Trump has marked July 9 as a hard deadline for negotiations. Outside of that, it's shaping up to be a relatively quiet week on the macro front. We'll be watching inflation data out of China and Wednesday's release of the Fed's latest meeting minutes. The first major batch of Q2 earnings drops on July 15. Until then, enjoy the calm — and have a great weekend.

Things to read this week

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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.