To analyze and try to understand Donald Trump's strategy, there is nothing better than analyzing his posts on social media, which he uses frenetically.

This is what the Goldman Sachs team did to determine the US president's target price for a barrel of WTI crude oil. After reviewing around 900 of Donald Trump's posts on the subject, they concluded that a price of between $40 and $50 per barrel would be ideal for him.

In their note, the US bank's analysts summarize Donald Trump's position as follows: "He tends to call for lower prices (or rejoice when they fall) when WTI is above $50. Conversely, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI below $30), often with the aim of supporting US production."

Indeed, Donald Trump still has these two objectives in mind. Lower energy prices, which are a catalyst for growth and reduce inflation. Lower inflation was one of his main campaign promises. Pump prices are a symbolic element in this battle against inflation. The CPI for April shows that gasoline prices are down 11.8% y-o-y. "Promises made, promises kept," to quote one of Donald Trump's favorite phrases.

On the other hand, there is a desire to increase US production, with a target of three million additional barrels per day. In his mind, the two objectives are linked: increased domestic production must lead to lower prices.

However, as we have already pointed out in these columns, lower prices do not encourage US producers to drill more. Indeed, the Dallas Fed estimates that the price needed to launch new drilling is $65.

The decline in prices since the beginning of the year is more the result of fears of a slowdown in demand on the one hand, and stronger-than-expected production increases in OPEC countries on the other.

For Donald Trump, the current price drop is therefore undermining the goal of increasing domestic production. "We are at a tipping point for US production," warned Travis Stice, CEO of Diamondback, last week.

The drop in prices also runs counter to another objective: reducing the trade deficit. In 2024, energy and distilled products were the largest US export category, accounting for a total of $320 billion.


US exports by category in 2024. Source: Trading economics