This morning was a deluge of macroeconomic statistics - jobless claims, factory output, retail sales, and producer prices - all arriving in one dense wave. The signals were, in classic fashion, mixed. But one figure stood out for all the wrong reasons: core retail sales, a key input for GDP, unexpectedly slipped 0.2% in April, disappointing investors who had been bracing for modest growth.

Headline retail sales rose just 0.1% - a whisper of an increase, and a far cry from March’s unexpectedly strong 1.7% surge. However, this was slightly better than expected by economists. Consumers were selective: spending picked up at restaurants and garden centers, as if spring had coaxed a few more dollars out of their wallets. But other corners of Main Street - bookstores, hobby shops, sporting goods - felt the chill of tighter budgets and perhaps tighter minds.

Elsewhere, jobless claims nudged up to 229,000, factory activity in New York contracted deeper into negative territory, and producer prices delivered a rare surprise: a 0.5% monthly decline, even as the annual pace remained a steady 2.4%. It was a reminder that while inflation may be cooling, it isn’t quite done.

Taken together, the numbers paint a picture of an economy that’s neither overheating nor collapsing, but treading water. Growth is there, but it’s fragile. Confidence is present, but it’s cautious. 

America's equity rebound, now over a month long, is beginning to show signs of fatigue. Yet the Nasdaq 100 managed a sixth consecutive gain, fueled by a renewed flicker of FOMO (fear of missing out). Investors are returning to their favorite adrenaline-providing tech stocks - equities that reliably amplify gains during rallies, offer a whiff of invincibility, and seem insulated from the doubts hanging over more cyclical sectors. The S&P 500, for its part, has now advanced in 14 of its last 17 sessions, albeit with a mere 0.1% rise on Wednesday.

Europe was more subdued. Most indices posted mild declines, lacking the stimulus of the Gulf whirlwind tour that produced a series of headline-grabbing commercial announcements from Donald Trump. These included deals supposedly worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The figures are immense; the details, conveniently opaque. But as ever, the intoxicant matters more than the bottle.

Consider one such proclamation, which warrants dissection - not for its veracity, but for its audacity. Mr Trump took to social media - one might reasonably ask whether that phrase is tautological - to boast that Qatar Airways had placed an order for 160 Boeing aircraft, valued at $200bn. This implies a per-plane price tag of $1.25bn. For the uninitiated, Boeing's priciest model, the stretched B777, lists at around $450m. That figure, mind you, is theoretical: neither Boeing nor Airbus has published catalogue prices for years, and real-world buyers rarely pay them anyway. John Leahy, Airbus's outspoken former sales chief, once quipped that across his career, only one customer ever paid list price. Discounts - often deep ones - are the norm, especially for mega-orders.

So, to recap: either Mr Trump struck the most lopsided deal in aviation history, or Qatar somehow paid three times the sticker price, perhaps six times the negotiated one. And that's assuming the jets in question are B777s. Were they B737MAXs, which cost under $150m apiece (and come with their own aeronautical baggage), the discrepancy would be even more spectacular. There is, of course, a more prosaic explanation: the former president likes round numbers and grand declarations. The White House did issue a correction - awkwardly - claiming the actual order was for 210 planes at $96bn, including B777s and B787s. That averages out at $457m a unit. Still inflated, but at least within the realm of possibility. Apply standard volume discounts and the true cost probably lands closer to $50bn. A sizeable deal, to be sure - just not the $200bn whopper initially proclaimed.
In short, say what you like. It's unlikely to matter.

Meanwhile, the more serious developments of the day fall into three broad categories. First, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are due to take place in Turkey. Neither Vladimir Putin nor Donald Trump will attend, though Volodymyr Zelensky had entertained hopes of higher-level participation. Second, yields on U.S. government debt continue to rise, reflecting a market increasingly skeptical about imminent rate cuts. While not disastrous, this trend suggests that uncertainty has not abated - merely shifted shape. And finally, a market-moving rumor: Iran is reportedly open to scrapping its nuclear ambitions if Western sanctions are lifted. Oil prices duly sagged.

Asia-Pacific markets mirrored this indecisive mood. Tokyo fell by 1%, while indices in mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea were each down around 0.5%. Australia managed a 0.2% gain; India edged up 0.4%. Europe is mixed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.1%. Futures on Wall Street are in the red, ranging from -0.3% for the Dow to -0.5% for the Nasdaq 100.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: machine tool orders in Japan; in the United Kingdom, GDP and monthly GDP; in France, the harmonized CPI of the European Union; industrial production in the eurozone; in the United States, Empire Manufacturing, new unemployment claims, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, final demand PPI, advance retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, business inventories, and the NAHB Housing Market Index. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 100,662
  • Gold: $3,189
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $64.28 (WTI) $60.99
  • United States 10 years: 4.53%
  • BITCOIN: $102,681

In corporate news:

  • UnitedHealth Group shares fell nearly 7% due to a DOJ investigation into potential Medicare fraud, despite the company's denial of wrongdoing.
  • Boeing secured a record aircraft order from Qatar Airways during President Trump's visit, amidst ongoing 737 MAX criminal case discussions.
  • Walmart warned of potential price increases due to tariffs, impacting sales and profits, despite a 1.7% increase in Q1 EPS to $0.61 and $165.6 billion in revenue.
  • Cisco Systems raised revenue forecasts, announced higher Q3 profits and sales, and appointed new executives, with CFO Scott Herren retiring.
  • OpenAI sparked AI safety concerns with its new organizational plan.
  • Databricks enhanced AI capabilities by acquiring Neon for $1 billion.
  • Microsoft increased margins through layoffs and avoided an EU antitrust fine by modifying its Office-Teams integration.
  • Dick's Sporting Goods is finalizing the acquisition of Foot Locker for approximately $2.3 to $2.4 billion.
  • Deere & Co reduced its annual profit forecast due to softer tractor demand and tariffs, despite $1.804 billion in Q2 net income.
  • Coinbase Global Inc. anticipates up to a $400 million impact from a cyber attack, with no customer data exposed.
  • Merck achieved regulatory success with its Keynote-B96 trial and multiple FDA approvals for WELIREG.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Dutch Bros Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated upgrades to buy from dropped coverage.
  • Nvidia Corporation: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated upgrades to buy from dropped coverage.
  • On Holding Ag: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated upgrades to buy from dropped coverage.
  • Truist Financial Corporation: TD Cowen upgrades to hold from sell with a target price of USD 44.
  • Coreweave, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from 46 to USD 58.
  • Duolingo, Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 357 to USD 590.
  • Dxc Technology Company: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target reduced from 26 to USD 17.
  • Dynatrace, Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 44 to USD 55.
  • Exelixis, Inc.: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 45 to USD 56.
  • First Solar, Inc.: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 180 to USD 225.
  • New Fortress Energy Inc.: BTIG maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 15 to USD 8.
  • Newell Brands Inc.: Zacks maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 5 to USD 7.
  • Nextracker Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 62 to USD 76.
  • Nrg Energy, Inc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 132 to USD 187.
  • Olin Corporation: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from 32 to USD 24.
  • Organon & Co.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 24 to USD 18.
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.: Freedom Broker maintains its buy recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 165 to USD 110.
  • Target Corporation: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 151 to USD 112.
  • UnitedHealth Group Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 513 to USD 362.