Who are the champions of the end-of-year rally?

Thanks to hopes of rate cuts in the first half of 2024, markets have begun their traditional end-of-year rally. An opportunity for the year's champions to confirm their momentum? Not necessarily.

At the time of writing, the Nasdaq has gained 46% since the start of the year, the S&P 500 19%, the Dow Jones 9% and the Cac 40 almost 13%.

Techs, buoyed by the AI explosion, unsurprisingly retain their position as leaders of the annual stock market dance. Gold, benefiting from the dollar's decline and Treasury bond yields, has rallied by 11% since the beginning of October. Less predictable is the sudden and brutal recovery of Bitcoin, which has gained no less than 58% since mid-October and 160% since the beginning of January, boosted by the prospect of a dedicated ETF coming to market.

Discretionary consumption also held up well, blithely ignoring the inflation affecting its sister sector, the consumption of essential goods.

On the fallers side, renewable energies (hydro, solar and wind) are suffering more from the headwinds sweeping the sector than they are benefiting from them. Rising interest rates, falling investment, component inflation, (persistent) shortages and market disenchantment... these former stock market darlings have lost their lustre.

Finally, also boosted by a potential interest-rate cut, real estate, which was in trouble in 2023, enjoyed a notable last-minute rebound, with a 15% performance since the end of October.

Drawing by Amandine Victor