By Eric Morath

Filings for initial unemployment claims have held at a high level since the start of the year and could for a few weeks be affected by job disruptions from severe winter storms across the country.

Economists project initial jobless claims to regular state programs, a proxy for layoffs, to hold nearly steady for the week ended Feb. 20, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. The Labor Department will publish the latest data at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, was 833,000 in the week ended Feb. 13, within the roughly 750,000 to 850,000 range that has held since last October and above the pre-pandemic peak.

The recent data is broadly consistent with a labor market that has been stuck near neutral this winter, while other readings of the economy have pointed to a pickup.

Jobless claims are closely watched by policy makers and investors about the direction of the jobs market and overall economy, but winter storms that hit Texas and elsewhere could affect layoff trends in the short term. The storms, which caused widespread power outages and disruptions, could create temporary unemployment for some workers and may have made it difficult for people to file claims and for state governments to process them.

"With severe weather events, we typically see a short-term uptick in layoffs that corrects itself within a few weeks," said Dave Gilbertson, vice president of Ultimate Kronos Group, a workplace software firm. "However, during a time when the economy is already struggling to accelerate, these temporary layoffs can delay the recovery in a devastating way."

UKG data showed the number of shifts worked by employees across the U.S. fell last week, led by a 58.5% decline in Mississippi and nearly 50% declines in Texas and Louisiana.

Employers added only a net 49,000 jobs in January after cutting 227,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said. Those monthly readings marked a significant slowdown in hiring, compared with last summer, when part of the economy reopened as state restrictions eased. Through January, the economy had recovered a little more than half of all jobs lost last spring.

There are signs this year that economic activity is poised to pick up as Covid-19 cases fall, more people become vaccinated, more government stimulus reaches households, and businesses and states lift restrictions.

The number of job openings at the end of January exceeded year-earlier levels, according to job search site Indeed.com. Aided by a fresh round of stimulus, retail spending accelerated in January. The Commerce Department on Friday is scheduled to release January household income and spending figures that show both rose during the month.

Economists project faster economic and job growth later this year, with those surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projecting employers to add 4.8 million jobs in 2021.

"We know really fast job growth is coming as soon as some of these industries -- hospitality, entertainment and travel -- can get going again," said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "But right now we're in the doldrums of this recovery."

Winter weather likely caused some temporary layoffs among construction firms and small businesses in recent weeks, Mr. Challenger said. Among the larger entities that his company tracks, job-cut announcements are well down from earlier in the pandemic but are becoming more broad-based and include airlines, food manufacturers, government agencies and media companies.

A recent extension of enhanced unemployment benefits and the temporary easing of job-search requirements could also be skewing recent claims data.

At the end of last year, Congress and then-President Donald Trump approved a $300 enhancement to unemployment benefits on top of regular state benefits, which paid an average of $319.02 a week last year, according to the Labor Department. President Biden earlier this year separately issued an executive action clarifying that workers who decline a job out of safety concerns, including possible Covid-19 exposure, can still remain on unemployment insurance.

The combination of the larger payments and more lenient enforcement of jobs-search requirements could encourage more workers to apply for benefits, in some cases instead of seeking jobs.

States also have seen a high number of fraudulent claims. Ohio this month reported a jump of more than 100,000 additional claims that the state said was likely attempted fraud.

In addition to regular state benefits, the Labor Department reports the number of people enrolled in two special pandemic programs: one for self-employed and gig workers, and another for those who exhausted other forms of the benefits. The total number of ongoing claims filed for those two programs was nearly 12 million at the end of January. That is more than double the estimated number receiving ongoing benefits through regular state programs, which covers most U.S. workers.

Margaret Grosso, 75 years old, has been out of work for more than a year and has been receiving extended unemployment benefits. She is seeking receptionist and clerical jobs, including at hospitals near her home in northern New Jersey. She has received two doses of Covid-19 vaccine and said she is eager to return to work to supplement her Social Security benefits.

"I go on interviews -- and I'm thankful I even get those -- but they keep telling me I'm overqualified," she said. Ms. Grosso worked as an office administrator, account executive and previously as a model in the fashion industry. "I sense it's an age thing -- it's just very difficult and discouraging."

Sarah Chaney Cambon contributed to this article.

Write to Eric Morath at eric.morath@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-25-21 0544ET