LVMH outperforms on the CAC 40 despite UBS caution
LVMH is posting one of the strongest gains on the CAC 40 index this Monday, despite a price target cut by UBS analysts. However, the Swiss bank noted several encouraging signals for the world's leading luxury goods group, as well as for the sector as a whole.
Around 2:30 p.m., the stock was up nearly 0.9% at 459.6 euros, compared with a 0.4% rise for the CAC 40 index.
In a research note released this morning, UBS analysts indicated they had lowered their target price on the stock from 706 to 640 euros, while maintaining their "Buy" rating.
The Swiss bank explained that it had revised its organic growth forecast for the first quarter down from 3% to 1%, citing negative currency effects, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, and an unfavorable basis of comparison linked to the Louis Vuitton x Murakami collaboration, which had boosted sales a year ago.
A sluggish restart, but signs of recovery
Despite this relative caution, UBS expects an improving trend in the group's performance and reiterated its buy recommendation on the stock. From its perspective, the shares are now trading at a much more attractive valuation level, making it one of its preferred picks within the sector.
More broadly, the Swiss institution expects that any potential positive surprises, even modest ones, will be well received by investors during the earnings season, given the recent de-rating of the sector.
"In a particularly gloomy market climate and with valuation levels under pressure, we believe that even slight outperformances in the first quarter could trigger a very favorable market reaction," UBS warned.
"On a fundamental level, we continue to anticipate quarter-on-quarter progress for the majority of companies, although rigorous stock picking remains essential," it added.
In addition to LVMH, Richemont is its other preferred stock within the sector.
LVMH has not yet announced the release date for its first-quarter revenue, but it is expected around April 13.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is the world leader in luxury products. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- fashion and leather items (46.7%): brands such as Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Celine, Loewe, Kenzo, Givenchy, Fendi, Emilio Pucci, Marc Jacobs, Berluti, Loro Piana, etc.;
- watches and jewels (13%): Bulgari, TAG Heuer, Zenith, Hublot, Chaumet, Fred brands, Tiffany, etc.;
- perfumes and cosmetics products (10.1%): perfumes (Christian Dior, Guerlain, Loewe, Kenzo, Givenchy brands, etc.), makeup products (Make Up For Ever, Guerlain, Acqua di Parma, etc.), etc.;
- wines and spirits (6.6%): champagnes (Moët & Chandon, Dom Pérignon, Veuve Clicquot, Krug, Ruinart, Mercier, Château d'Yquem, Domaine du Clos des Lambrays, Château Cheval Blanc, Colgin Cellars, Hennessy, Glenmorangie, Ardbeg, Belvedere, Woodinville, Volcán de mi Tierra, Chandon, Cloudy Bay, Terrazas de los Andes brands, etc.; No. 1 worldwide), wines (Cape Mentelle, Château D'Yquem, etc.), cognacs (mainly Hennessy; No. 1 worldwide), whisky (mainly Glenmorangie), etc.;
The remaining net sales (23.6%) are from selective distribution through the Sephora, DFS, Miami Cruiseline chains and Le Bon Marché and La Samaritaine department stores.
At the end of 2025, products are marketed via a network of 6,283 outlets located throughout the world.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (8.3%), Europe (18%), Japan (7.9%), Asia (26.5%), the United States (25.6%) and other (13.7%).
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