Shortly before 10:30 a.m., the CAC 40 is up approximately 2% at 8,074 points, while the pan-European Stoxx Europe 50 index is advancing by 2.7%. London's FTSE 100 is climbing 1.8% and Frankfurt's DAX is gaining 2.5%.

As a reminder, across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 rose 0.83% on Monday to 6,795.9 points, the Dow Jones gained 0.5% to 47,740.8 points, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.32% to close at 24,967.2 points.

Donald Trump's latest comments reassure

Major U.S. indices were supported by a late-session rebound and falling oil prices after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran could be nearing its end.

According to Joachim Klement, this shift is due to Washington's realization that there is no truly viable solution to counter Iranian drone strikes that could impact maritime oil traffic in the Persian Gulf, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.

"It is a fact: whether the US Navy escorts convoys or Washington opts for a ground invasion, trade routes would remain paralyzed for months," explains the analyst at Panmure Liberum. "Under these conditions, the United States has no choice but to play the de-escalation card."

"If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East begin to ease and G7 interventions help stabilize energy markets, oil prices could fall further," says Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. "Such a development would likely improve risk sentiment and provide support for equities."

"Conversely, if the conflict worsens or oil supply disruptions intensify, energy prices could climb again. This would not only increase inflationary pressures but could also force the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer, adding further headwinds for stocks," he warns.

Oil slump weighs on TotalEnergies, but benefits ArcelorMittal

For now, the decline in oil prices from yesterday's peaks, bringing WTI crude back toward 88 USD and Brent toward 92 USD, is weighing on TotalEnergies (-2.6%), making it the CAC 40's biggest laggard.

In contrast, steelmaker ArcelorMittal (whose operations are particularly energy-intensive) is taking full advantage of the lull in crude prices, jumping 6.1%, ahead of banks Société Générale (+5.6%) and BNP Paribas (+4.1%).

STMicro (+4.3%) is also among the top performers on the CAC 40, following favorable comments from Deutsche Bank, which reaffirmed its "buy" recommendation and raised its price target from 28 EUR to 32 EUR. The bank believes the Franco-Italian group is preparing to make AI data centers one of its primary growth drivers.

Also in corporate news, Renault is up 2.5% after the automaker presented its new strategic plan dubbed "futuREady," which includes the launch of 36 new models by 2030.

German and French trade balances improve in January

On the statistical front, Germany recorded a trade surplus of 21.2 billion EUR in January 2026, according to Destatis, compared to a surplus of 17.4 billion EUR in December 2025.

This month-on-month improvement reflects a 5.9% drop in goods imports to 109.2 billion EUR, which more than offset a 2.3% contraction in exports to 130.5 billion EUR observed over the same period.

Meanwhile, France's trade deficit narrowed to 1.84 billion EUR in January 2026, compared to 4.30 billion EUR in December 2025. This improvement reflects a very slight 0.7% increase in exports to 53.43 billion EUR, but primarily a 3.6% decrease in imports to 55.27 billion EUR.

Later this afternoon, traders will await existing home sales data for February in the United States, to be released by the National Association of Realtors.