Jan 12 (Reuters) - Moderna said on Monday it expects to report around $1.9  billion in sales for 2025, putting it near the upper end of its previously projected $1.6  billion to $2  billion forecast but well below revenue levels achieved during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moderna Chief Financial Officer James Mock said in an interview that U.S. vaccination rates in the retail sector fell by roughly 26% year-over-year in 2025. That decline, at the lower end of the company's projected 20% to 40% drop, ultimately led to higher sales, he said.

The vaccine maker, which is set to present on Monday at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, also cut $200 million from its 2025 operating-expense forecast, lowering the range to $5.0  billion to $5.2  billion.

Moderna said it expects to end the year with $8.1 billion in cash, up from its prior forecast of $6.5 billion to $7.0 billion. The total includes $600 million from a five-year, $1.5 billion loan secured in November from Ares Management.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based drugmaker has been struggling financially as demand for COVID vaccines collapsed in the years following its pandemic windfall, when Moderna reported revenue of $18.4  billion in 2022. Despite the plunge in sales, the company now sees signs of stabilization.

On Monday, the company reiterated its 2026 goal of achieving up to 10% revenue growth and said it anticipates regulatory approvals this year for both a standalone influenza vaccine and its COVID-flu combination shot - launches it hopes will eventually replace some of the lost COVID vaccine revenue.

"If we're at $1.9 billion for 2025, up to 10% would be $2.1 billion, although we're not guiding that officially right now," said Mock.

Moderna does not expect its flu or combination shots to be approved in time for the 2026 respiratory-disease season but sees them providing a boost in 2027.

Moderna said it also expects important trial data in 2026 for experimental oncology, rare disease and infectious disease vaccines. That includes late-stage results for its norovirus shot and mid-stage data for the cancer vaccine co-developed with Merck being tested in melanoma following surgery.

The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full 2025 results on February 13.

(Reporting by Patrick Wingrove in New York; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

By Patrick Wingrove