mwb research believes the European aircraft manufacturer is heading into its earnings release with solid operational performance, but sees limited upside potential, as deliveries remain the main driver of results and the 2026 guidance is expected to be more cautious than anticipated.
The research firm forecasts a delivery target of around 870 aircraft in 2026, below market expectations of close to 900, following several years of targets deemed overly ambitious.
The note also points out that competitive risks are rising, with COMAC viewed as a credible challenger from 2030 onwards, while optimism surrounding the FCAS program is "fading" due to governance disputes and declining political support, weighing on the stock's revaluation.
As a reminder, FCAS is a next-generation European defense program, led mainly by France, Germany, and Spain, aiming to develop a comprehensive air combat system by 2040.
Airbus shares are trading flat in Paris at mid-session and have fallen by around 2.5% since the start of the year.
Airbus SE is No. 1 in Europe and No. 2 worldwide in the aeronautics, aerospace, and defense industries. Net sales break down by family of products and services as follows:
- commercial aircraft (70.1%). The group is No. 1 worldwide for aircrafts with more than 100 seats;
- defense and aerospace systems (18.2%): military aircrafts (primarily transport aircrafts, marine surveillance aircrafts, anti-submarines fighter planes and flight refueling aircrafts), spatial equipment (orbital launchers, observation and communication satellite, turboprop aircraft, etc.), defense and security systems (missile systems, electronic and telecommunications systems, etc.). Airbus SE also provides training and aircrafts maintenance services;
- civil and military helicopters (11.7%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe (40.8%), Asia-Pacific (28.0%), North America (17.7%), Middle East (9.0%), Latin America (2.7%), and Other (1.8%).
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