Nervousness Likely to Persist as Middle East Conflict Intensifies
Major European stock markets are expected to open lower on Tuesday morning, extending the sharp declines seen the previous day, as oil prices continue to climb amid escalating fighting in the Middle East—currently the main source of investor anxiety. At this stage in the morning, index futures suggest a 1.4% drop for the DAX in Frankfurt, 0.3% for the FTSE 100 in London, and 1.5% for the Euro STOXX 50. As for Paris's CAC 40, it could fall by around 1.3% according to initial available indications.
Published on 03/03/2026 at 02:40 am EST
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The latest remarks from Donald Trump have done nothing to ease concerns: the American president stated that the United States would do "whatever it takes" to achieve its military objectives in Iran.
Against this backdrop, European markets began March yesterday with sharp losses, with the CAC 40 index dropping nearly 2.2%, bringing its year-to-date gains down to around 3%.
Investors are swimming in a pool of uncertainties and struggling to price in geopolitical news, whether it concerns the potential for military escalation, surging oil prices, fears of a resurgence in inflation, or the impact of the conflict on global growth.
Buck ing this trend of risk aversion, the New York Stock Exchange managed to close roughly flat yesterday. Investors took advantage of the initial dip to bargain-hunt recently battered tech stocks, such as Nvidia (+2.9%) and Microsoft (+1.5%).
At the closing bell, the Dow Jones slipped 0.1% and the S&P 500 ended flat, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%.
This resilience stands in contrast to the trend in Asia, where uncertainties continued to weigh heavily on the Nikkei index, which fell 3.1% on Tuesday.
A Dilemma for the Fed: Soaring Oil and Persistent Inflation
Amid surging oil prices and the prospect of renewed inflationary pressures, the market increasingly expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to forgo another rate cut in June, even as investors still hope for further monetary easing down the line.
The U.S. jobs report, due Friday, will be closely watched for signals that could help anticipate the Fed's policy stance.
For now, New York futures point to a lower open on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones down 0.8% and the Nasdaq off 1%.
Overall, traders continue to seek safe haven assets, even as U.S. yields climb on Tuesday: markets are repositioning for persistent inflation and a prolonged period of rates remaining at current levels.
The yield on ten-year Treasuries is up more than eight basis points, approaching 4.05%, after dropping below the 4% threshold yesterday.
European bond markets are also retreating, with the Bund yield up six points to 2.71% and French OATs rising five points to around 2.39%.
The euro continues to slide, dipping below 1.1670 dollars—its lowest in a month against the greenback—ahead of the release of preliminary February inflation data for the eurozone.
Finally, oil prices continue their ascent: Brent is up 3.2% to over 80.2 dollars a barrel, while U.S. light crude (WTI) rises 2.5% to above 73 dollars.
Gold at a Record High
The gold market remains in favor: the yellow metal has broken through the historic barrier of 5,300 dollars an ounce, establishing itself as a hedge against systemic instability. In the short term, holding above this support could signal a bullish bias toward targets between 5,450 and 5,475 dollars.

















