It is one of the controversies that marked the first week of the conflict in the Middle East. Were the United States dragged into a war by Israel? That is what Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested on March 2 on Capitol Hill. Speaking to reporters, he described a preventive war launched by the United States. "We knew there would be Israeli action, we knew it would trigger an [Iranian] attack against American forces, and we knew that if we did not strike them preemptively before the onset of those attacks, we would suffer more losses." The next day, Donald Trump tried to brush aside those accusations. "I may have twisted Israel's arm," he said in the Oval Office, alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
What is certain is that Benjamin Netanyahu had, for months, been pushing Donald Trump to carry out new strikes against Iran. Both leaders have met several times in recent months. And according to Axios, it was a phone call on February 23 that may have precipitated the launch of the operation. It was on that occasion, the Israelis are said to have informed the Americans about the famous February 28 meeting, around the Supreme Leader, at his residence in Tehran.
At this stage, Trump and Netanyahu are presenting a united front against Iran, with the stated goal of toppling the regime. The question now is how long that unity can hold. Because neither shares the same history nor the same political equation.
Opportunity and culmination
For the Israeli prime minister, the fall of the Iranian regime would be the culmination of his political career. In his first speech to the US Congress, in 1996, he was already talking about the Iranian nuclear threat. He has spent over 18 years in all at the head of the Israeli government, and has survived everything. Even October 7 (2023), which was the greatest security failure in Israel's history.
And how did he get through it? By expanding the war to all of Israel's enemies in the region, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen. And all those Iranian proxies have already been badly weakened by Israeli army attacks. A winning strategy for Benjamin Netanyahu. He is now well positioned to be returned to his post, as parliamentary elections are due to be held this year.
For Donald Trump, the stakes are different. Preoccupied as he is with his legacy, he has the opportunity to take down an enemy of the United States, a regime that, for 47 years, has attacked American interests and destabilized the Middle East. But he will have to manage an American public that is feeling the consequences of this war (rising energy prices, higher interest rates…). Above all, the conflict with Iran is existential for Israelis, where the vast majority of Americans see little point in it. A huge 82% of Israelis back the offensive against Iran (a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute), while only 29% of Americans approve of the war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday.
The United States has changed
Donald Trump is arguably the most pro-Israel US president in history. During his first term, he moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. A step none of his predecessors had dared to take. At the time of his re-election, Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the "greatest comeback in history," while his defense minister, Israel Katz, spoke of an opportunity to "defeat the axis of evil led by Iran".
The paradox is that American society is becoming less and less pro-Israel. And that is a consequence of the war waged by Israel in Gaza and the tens of thousands of deaths caused by the bombing. For the first time, more Americans express sympathy for Palestinians (41%) than for Israelis (36%). Support for Israel has notably eroded in part of Donald Trump's base, against a backdrop of antisemitic rhetoric.
Finally, during his campaign Donald Trump promised not to get the US involved in another conflict. Until now, he had allowed the use of force, but for limited operations and with a precise objective (Venezuela, Iranian nuclear sites). In other words, excursions that do not affect Americans' lives. However, with the price of crude oil now having surged, the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East are already visible in daily life. And this weekend, images of the ceremony paying tribute to the first six American soldiers killed since the start of the operation ran on a loop on US channels.
Behind-the-scenes tensions
The political situations are therefore very different in Israel and the United States. And while both leaders readily display their closeness, the tensions that can exist behind the scenes should not be minimized. Last autumn, Donald Trump had to twist Benjamin Netanyahu's arm to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. Before the Knesset, Trump limited himself to saying that Netanyahu "is not someone who is easy to live with." But Axios reported a much more tense exchange, in late September, at the White House: "I don't know why you're always so fucking negative. This is a victory. Take it," the American president is said to have snapped.
It should also be remembered that the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, last June, was stopped by Donald Trump. We remember his anger, as the clashes continued in the hours following his announcement of a ceasefire. A scenario in which the US president blows the final whistle, believing he has won, cannot therefore be ruled out. In any case, we know he always claims victory. But we do not really know what his objectives are. At a press conference held yesterday at his Doral club (Florida), the occupant of the White House said the war with Iran could end "very soon".
