By Kirk Maltais


The global climate has officially shifted into an El Niño system, a potential boon for U.S. row crops but also a threat to crops in southeast Asia and South America.

"El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter," the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said in a notice Thursday.

El Niño - which is when average surface temperatures for water in the Pacific Ocean rise by half a degree Celsius or more - could bring drought relief for fields in the southern Plains while more-northern states see conditions that are warmer and drier.

Entering the summer growing season, weather in the Corn Belt has been largely supportive for crops. "The U.S. weather is nearly ideal," said Gary Sandlund, president of Chicago-based brokerage Futures International, in a note published Thursday.

Drought that has gripped states like Nebraska and Texas is already starting to let up, with those regions seeing the increased rainfall and cooler-than-usual temperatures El Niño is known for. More eastern Corn Belt states may see warmer and drier conditions, but soil moisture is strong heading into the summer, thanks to a wet spring.

Ideal growing conditions this year would follow what was a record 2025 for crop production - with U.S. farmers producing over 17 billion bushels of corn, smashing the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels. Even with farmers planting less acres this year, the USDA still pegs corn production at nearly 16 billion bushels.

Where El Niño is more likely to cause adverse effects to crops is in Southeastern Asia and in South America. In South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, where warmer and drier conditions would impact corn, soybeans, and wheat that competes with U.S. crops on the global export market.

Soybean planting in Brazil largely begins in November, which is the same time that the NOAA projects a 63% chance of El Niño turning into what some are calling a "Super El Niño" - a climate system that lifts the average sea surface temperature by over two degrees. Such a system creates stronger environmental effects.

Corn in Brazil is planted in two segments, called "first" and "second" crops. Planting of the first crop typically begins in September, while the second starts the following January.

The average temperature in the Pacific is now up by 0.7 degree Celsius, officially shifting the climate out of the neutral zone it's been in this spring, NOAA said in its release.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-11-26 1449ET