OPENING CALL

Stock futures pointed to a lower open Monday as jitters linger about the underlying health of the U.S. economy and about AI disruption and potential over-investment.

Investors, meanwhile, prepare for a slew of economic data this week.

Chief among them are monthly nonfarm payrolls data to be released on Wednesday and January inflation data scheduled for Friday.

Wednesday's numbers will be closely watched as they ought to give investors a view on when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, Friday's inflation data will provide insight into whether inflationary pressures are slowing enough to allow for rate cuts in the coming months.

Other data expected this week include the fourth-quarter employment cost index on Tuesday, followed by Thursday's weekly jobless claims and January existing home sales data.

Apollo Global Management and Becton, Dickinson and Company financial results are expected later to start off what will be another heavy week of corportate earnings.

Economic Insight

The prospect of a stability-oriented monetary policy maker --Kevin Warsh--at the head of the Federal Reserve is expected to ease concerns about a long-term rise in U.S. inflation, according to LBBW.

Stocks to Watch

Hims & Hers shares fell 16% after it said it would stop offering copycat versions of Novo Nordisk's weight-loss pill.

Kroger gained 6.8% after news it planed to higher a former executive at top rival Walmart as its new chief executive.

STMicroelectronics rose 6.4% after it clinched a multibillion-dollar deal with Amazon.com's cloud-computing arm.

Watch For:

U.S. Employment Trends Index for January

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- The Chinese Factory That Opened in the U.S. and Clobbered Its Rivals

- Job Hunters Are So Desperate That They're Paying to Get Recruited

- Immigration Raids in South Texas Are Starting to Hit the Economy

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar fell after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's coalition victory in Sunday's election.

"The landslide victory will reinforce her responsible but expansionary fiscal spending and a more Japan-focused foreign policy. Risk-on sentiment will dominate the market for now," ING said.

The euro

rose against the dollar, which weakened after Japan's Lower House election resulted in a landslide victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling coalition.

With political uncertainty resolved in Japan after the country's lower house election, rate differentials should emerge as the dominant driver of the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen , SEB said, adding that demand for yen will likely pick up.

"Moreover, foreign investor appetite for FX-hedged Japanese government bonds will likely remain as U.S. bonds yields are capped by Federal Reserve easing."

The yen's downward trend was likely to continue amid fiscal concerns , unless the Japanese government carries out actual currency intervention, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities said. The brokerage expects the yen to reach 160 against the dollar by the end of the year.

Now that Japan's election is over, the market's focus is shifting to the U.S. economy, it said.

"We could see a scenario where selling pressure on the dollar intensifies if policy uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration or concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown mount."

Pound Weakens on Renewed Political Risks -- Market Talk

The pound weakened versus euro and was flat against the dollar after the U.K. prime minister's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, resigned over the weekend. It raised the risk of Prime Minister Keir Starmer being replaced, MUFG said, adding that increased prospects of more Bank of England interest-rate cuts than previously expected also weigh on the pound.

Bitcoin declined from intraday highs but remained above $70,000 amid risk-on sentiment following the election victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling coalition.

Bonds:

Treasury yields rose in Asian trade where markets were focused on the election victory of Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling coalition. The next potential driver for Treasurys is the delayed January job report due on Wednesday.

Energy:

Oil prices fell 1% in early trading as investors closely monitored developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Metals:

Gold prices rose back above the $5,000 mark on a softer dollar and as traders waited for the release of key U.S. data later this week.

"Investors reasserted their long-term bullish views on the precious metal," ANZ said. Silver, meanwhile, climbed 6% to $81.55 an ounce.

Gold was likely to trade within a range, Pepperstone said.

Geopolitical uncertainty, sustained central-bank buying and a temporarily weaker dollar are likely to collectively provide support, but a lack of fresh catalysts is likely to constrain the yellow metal's upside, it said. 


   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Italy's UniCredit Lifts Shareholder Returns as Profit Grows

UniCredit pledged to raise shareholder payouts in the years ahead as it bets on growing market share, investments and rising profit.

The Italian bank on Monday said it is starting 2026 with strong momentum and sizeable buffers as it kicked off a new three-year strategy under which it plans to expand its market share while improving operational efficiency by investing into technology and artificial intelligence.

NatWest Agrees to Buy Wealth Manager Evelyn Partners for $3.7 Billion

U.K. lender NatWest is set to buy wealth manager Evelyn Partners for 2.7 billion pounds ($3.67 billion) to boost its savings and investment offerings.

The bank reached an agreement with funds advised by private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus to take over Evelyn Partners and combine with its existing private banking and wealth management business once the deal closes this summer.

Advent, FedEx-Led Consortium to Buy Parcel-Delivery Provider InPost for $9.2 Billion

A consortium comprising U.S. private-equity firm Advent International, logistics group FedEx, and investment companies A&R and PPF agreed to buy Polish parcel-delivery provider InPost for $9.22 billion.

InPost offers automated parcel pickup services for business-to-consumer shipments. The consortium said that with a network of 61,000 automated parcel lockers, combined with pick-up and drop-off locations and doorstep delivery options, there is a clear path to significantly grow InPost's network and extend its reach to consumers across Europe.

Innovent Biologics Strikes Partnership Deal With Eli Lilly

Chinese drugmaker Innovent Biologics struck a partnership with Eli Lilly to develop new treatments that could generate up to $8.5 billion in milestone payments.

Innovent said Sunday that it and its subsidiaries signed a deal with U.S. pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly to develop new medicines targeting cancer and immune system diseases globally, marking the seventh collaboration between the two companies.

Stocks' Sharp Rebound Is Only Making Investors More Nervous

The snowballing retreat in software stocks that gathered up big tech, private credit, and even the corporate bond market this past week ended in a remarkable rebound, leaving investors bracing for more turbulence ahead.

Days of declines stemmed from investors' worries that the disruption from artificial intelligence might be more widespread than thought, and fears that the companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars on the AI build-out might fall short of delivering on the expected sky-high profits.

Japan's Takaichi Scores Landslide Win in Election Gamble

TOKYO-Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi led her party to a thumping victory in parliamentary elections, handing her a powerful mandate to deepen ties with the U.S. and rev up Japan's economy.

The landslide win is a vindication for the 64-year-old conservative, who called the risky snap vote during a snowy Japanese winter only three months after taking office.

Taiwan Exports Start 2026 Strong in Bright Sign for Economy

Taiwan's exports showed no signs of slowing at the start of 2026, rising at the fastest pace in 16 years for the first month of the year as AI demand continues unabated.

Exports rose 69.9% in January from a year earlier, official data showed Monday, topping the 52.2% increase expected in a Wall Street Journal poll of economists and logging the fastest pace of growth since early 2010.

The labor market was bad last year. Will investors get stung by a poor January jobs report, too?

Investors are on edge about the January jobs report after an anxious week on Wall Street - but the survey is likely to tell them more about the past than the future of a fragile U.S. labor market.

Stocks were hit hard last week before staging a dramatic recovery on Friday that catapulted the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA above the 50,000-point threshold for the first time ever. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasurys BX:TMUBMUSD10Y finally saw safe-haven demand as silver SI00, gold GC00, bitcoin BTCUSD and other hot areas of the market convulsed.

Iran Threatens Missile Attacks, Hoping Trump Sees Strength Not Weakness

Iran's missile program was born of weakness in the early years of the Islamic Republic. Now the question is whether it is formidable enough to head off a military confrontation with President Trump.

Tehran unleashed a barrage of around 500 missiles that struck civilian and military locations in Israel last June but did little strategic damage. Though Israel pounded Iran's missile launchers and storage sites during a 12-day war in June, the regime emerged from the bruising conflict with much of its remaining arsenal intact.

Trump Calls U.S. Skier a 'Loser' as Politics Ripples Through Olympic Games

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

02-09-26 0621ET