The Danish drugmaker posted 2025 sales up 6% in local currency, or 10% at constant exchange rates, for a total of DKK 309.1bn (€41.39bn). All Invest Securities said full-year sales beat consensus expectations of around DKK 307.385bn.

In Q4 alone, sales came to DKK 79.144bn, down 8% on a reported basis, but 3% above expectations (around DKK 76.6bn).

In detail, Oddo BHF was positively surprised by the diabetes franchise, driven by Tresiba, while the obesity franchise was broadly in line overall, with unfavorable price effects.

In the US, sales fell 7% over October-to-December at constant exchange rates, notably due to a 6% drop in diabetes GLP-1 sales, linked to lower Rybelsus volumes amid a reprioritisation of promotional efforts, lower prices and market-share losses for Ozempic, Oddo BHF noted.

A spectacular plunge

2026 targets punished

For the current fiscal year, Novo Nordisk expects results to be positively impacted by a reversal of provisions for rebates of $4.2bn, linked to the drug-pricing programme in the United States.

As for targets, Oddo BHF describes them as "particularly cautious", while Jefferies says they are disappointing. For 2026, the group is guiding for sales, at constant exchange rates and excluding exceptional items, to fall by between 5% and 13%, with EBIT expected to decline by a similar magnitude.

All Invest Securities estimates the consensus had been looking for sales to fall by around 2.8%, and for EBIT to decline by 6.5%.

For Jefferies, the sales decline implies revenue of between DKK 259bn and DKK 282bn, versus DKK 299bn expected. For EBIT, it is now forecast at between DKK 103bn and DKK 113bn, versus consensus expectations of DKK 121bn.

Oddo BHF notes these forecasts factor in the expected price decline, notably in the United States, the loss of exclusivity for semaglutide in certain international markets, and the non-recurrence of the positive gross-to-net effects seen in 2025 (the difference between gross and net revenue).

The analysts conclude: "We are clearly entering a transition year for Novo Nordisk. The 2026 guidance, while consistent with trends seen in H2, highlights a lack of visibility in the US market, amid regulatory pressure, price normalisation and still-high investment. The evolution of the obesity market, notably with the launch of the oral form of semaglutide, will be a key part of management's messaging in order to assess the group's ability to re-accelerate volume growth in a more competitive environment." They have a Neutral rating on the stock, with a target of 350 Danish kroner.

For Jefferies, these forecasts, along with management changes, notably the departure of the head of US operations, will disappoint investors. The US investment bank's recommendation is Underperform, with a target of 270 DKK.

Since the start of the year, Novo Nordisk shares have risen 13.08%, not including the day's drop. By contrast, over the whole of 2025, which was marked by profit warnings, the stock had collapsed by 47.89%.