Oddo BHF maintains its Neutral rating on the stock but adjusts its price target to €2,200 (down from €2,264). The analyst notes that the stock's valuation still leaves little room for maneuver. In their view, the stock remains highly valued despite its relative underperformance in 2025 (down 8.6% year-to-date, compared to the luxury sector's +1.4%).

The analyst is making a moderate adjustment to the price target to reflect a slight downward revision to forecasts, and especially to market parameters.

"We do not see, in our discussions with the company, any factors that would lead us to change our current forecasts for organic growth in Q4 (we expect around +8%) or for the 2025 EBIT margin (we have 39.8%)," Oddo BHF points out.

"We understand that Japan, the Americas, and Europe excluding France remained dynamic in Q4, Asia-Pacific continues to show a moderate recovery, and France should see its performance slightly impacted this quarter by the decline seen in Perfumes (destocking and lack of new launches continue to weigh). The group reiterates its expectation of annual 2025 growth in Leather Goods close to the 12.6% observed over nine months," the research firm notes.

Oddo BHF also estimates that unfavorable currency movements should result in a more significant negative impact than the approximately 5 points observed in Q3, for Q4.

"Overall, our impression at this stage is that the group's performance in Q4 should remain respectable in absolute terms, but likely below the +9.6% seen in Q3, due to a tougher comparison base than average."

"Our forecast for 2026 reflects a Leather Goods division at +11% at constant currency (i.e., +7% volume and +4% price) and constant currency growth for the rest of the group at +7.8% (i.e., +3.8% volume after a -2.2% decline reflected in our 2025 forecast, and +4% price)," Oddo BHF concludes in its report.