Oddo BHF maintains its Outperform rating on the stock with a price target of €26 after the release of the 2025 results and guidance.

Edenred's revenue for 2025 reached €2,961 million (+4% on a reported basis) with organic growth of 6.2%, in line with expectations of 6.3%.

EBITDA amounted to €1,360 million, with organic growth of 11.2%, putting it 1% above consensus.

Net income, group share, at €521 million, exceeded the consensus of €508 million by 3%.

Oddo BHF highlights in its report that the group is maintaining its guidance for the 2026 fiscal year, which takes into account the impact of Italian and Brazilian regulations (with Brazil's coming mid-February), specifically an 8 to 12% decline in organic EBITDA in 2026 (consensus -10%).

The group has also maintained its guidance for 2027-2028, namely organic EBITDA growth of 8 to 12% and a free cash flow conversion rate of at least 65%.

Given the maintained guidance for the 2026 fiscal year, Oddo BHF does not expect significant adjustments to the consensus on EBITDA, but rather downward adjustments to free cash flow.

Oddo BHF believes Edenred's growth potential remains solid in the long term, supported by the under-penetration of its markets. However, regulatory risk remains the main threat to its business.

"Our fundamentally positive stance is based on: 1) strong growth prospects; 2) significant potential for further margin improvement; and 3) robust free cash flow generation," Oddo BHF concludes.