Analysts are on high alert: with one eye, they watch bombs falling on Tehran; with the other, they track the surge in crude oil prices. In London, Brent is up 9%, moving closer to $80 a barrel. "During the 12-day war in June 2025, oil prices jumped 15% before quickly falling back to pre-conflict levels once hostilities ended," recalls Christopher Dembik. For this analyst at Pictet AM, the same pattern should be seen.

"A scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed is becoming increasingly credible, with ships already stuck, attacks and marine insurers pulling out," says Frédéric Lorec, an analyst at AlphaValue. In his view, Brent could top $100, and even rise above $130 if disruption drags on.

Against this backdrop, eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) yesterday decided to begin gradually unwinding voluntary production cuts of 1.65 mb/d announced in April 2023. They will implement a production increase of 206,000 barrels a day from April 2026, judging market fundamentals to be solid and inventories low. Measures that will have "a limited impact," Frédéric Lorec says.

In this environment, airlines (for which jet fuel typically accounts for between 25% and 30% of operating costs) are being shunned: Finnair and Air France-KLM are down 9.5%, TUI (-8.6%), Lufthansa and Wizz Air (-6.2%), IAG (-5.2%) and Ryanair (-2.4%).

In contrast, oil stocks are jumping, led by Equinor (+6%), which is combining the discovery of a 25 million to 89 million-barrel field in the North Sea with Brent's surge. TotalEnergies (+3.8%), Shell (+2.5%) and Repsol (+4.3%) are also benefiting from the geopolitical backdrop.

On the data front, in the euro zone, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.8 in February, in line with expectations, after 49.5 in January, S&P Global said.

For France, the manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in February, versus a consensus of 49.9, after 51.2 in January, S&P Global said. In Germany, the same PMI stood at 50.9 in February, versus a consensus of 50.7, after 49.1 in January, S&P Global said. At 50.9 points, the indicator is at its highest level in 44 months.

Markets will get the ISM reading in the United States at around 4 p.m. today.

This tense backdrop is naturally benefiting gold, which is fully playing its role as a safe haven: the price per ounce is up 2.1%, at around $5,400 per ounce.