Oil Trims Gains After Iran Says It Ended Attacks on Israel -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 1.6% at $94.57 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 0.3% at 49.98 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.8% at $13,621 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 0.1% at $4,361.30 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Oil Trims Gains After Iran Says It Ended Attacks on Israel

Oil prices pared gains after Iran said it ended military operations against Israel, easing fears that the latest exchange of fire could derail regional efforts to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In afternoon European trading, Brent crude rose 1.8% to $94.74 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was up 1.5% to $91.85 a barrel following a rise of more than 4.5% earlier in the session. Both benchmarks have gained more than 60% this year but remain well below March levels, when Brent was around $120 a barrel.

Israel and Iran targeted each other in a series of strikes and counterstrikes over the weekend and into Monday for the first time since a ceasefire brokered by the U.S. went into force in April. Later on Truth Social, President Trump said both sides must immediately stop "shooting" and indicated they were seeking to agree to an immediate ceasefire.

OTHER STORIES:

Saudi Arabia Cuts July Crude Prices for Asia As Demand Slows

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia sharply cut the price of its main oil grade for Asia as demand slows, even as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke off supplies out of the Persian Gulf and tighten global markets.

State oil producer Saudi Aramco on Monday set the official selling price for July loadings of its Arab Light crude to Asia-the largest destination for Middle Eastern crude-at $9.50 above the Oman/Dubai regional benchmarks, down from a premium of $15.50 a barrel in June.

MARKET TALKS:

Traders Attempt to Halt 'Death Spiral' in Corn -- Market Talk

1055 ET - Corn futures are down more than 8% over the past two weeks, according to data from FactSet. Part of the pressure is what Austin Schroeder of Price Futures Group calls "death spiral liquidation." In a note, Schroeder says "the longs that had been piling in on the previous crude strength, excellent exports, prospects of China buying, etc., all wanted out at the same time." Most-active corn futures are up 0.1%, but how long they stay in positive territory is unclear. Weather in early June is looking wet for U.S. crops, but that can quickly change. Soybeans are virtually flat, and wheat rises 0.8%. ([e-mail])

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Canada to Offer Airlines Relief on Jet Fuel -- Market Talk

1045 ET - Canada says it will make financing available to the country's air carriers to deal with higher airline fuel stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne says under a new loan program, Canadian airlines facing "significant financial pressures" from higher fuel prices could access up to C$150 million in financing to alleviate the balance-sheet squeeze. This is the latest effort by Canada to soften the blow from higher energy costs. In April, Canada waived vehicle-fuel taxes on a temporary basis, until Labor Day. ([e-mail]; @paulvieira)

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Fund Selling May Slow in Grains -- Market Talk

1032 ET - CBOT grain futures are slowly turning higher after a slow start, which is seen as a technical reaction to sizable long liquidation evidenced in Friday's Commitments of Traders report. Funds remain net long in corn and soybeans, but by a margin that is far less than what was seen weeks ago. "With the markets now oversold, fund liquidation probably slows," says Joe Davis of Futures International. "There is no bullish weather story… it remains bearish." Most-active CBOT corn is down 0.3%, while soybeans fall 0.1% and wheat is up 0.5%. ([e-mail])

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Cattle Inches Up as More Screwworm Cases are Reported -- Market Talk

1024 ET - New cases of New World Screwworm being reported in Texas are giving live cattle futures some support, with the most-active contract up 0.1%. Ag traders are debating whether or not the arrival of the parasite in the U.S. has already been priced into futures, says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. Canada is also barring imports of cattle from Texas due to screwworm issues. Lean hogs are up 1.1% in early trading. ([e-mail])

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Wet Weekend Pressures Grains in Early Trading -- Market Talk

1005 ET - Rain in crop-growing areas over the weekend weighs on CBOT corn and soybean futures. "The heaviest totals centered in northern Missouri/southern Iowa, but wide stretches of the Corn Belt seeing another inch or more," says Mike Castle of StoneX in a note. "These rains came with some welcomed heat units as well, making much of the region feel like a greenhouse and providing a serious boost to developing corn and soybean crops." The USDA will issue its next Crop Progress report this afternoon at 4 p.m. eastern time. CBOT corn falls 0.7%, soybeans shed 0.7%, while wheat rises 0.2%. ([e-mail])

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U.A.E., Qatar Stocks Slip After Iran, Israel Trade Fire, Red Sea Risks Rise -- Market Talk

1334 GMT - - U.A.E. and Qatar stocks close lower after the first exchange of fire between Iran and Israel since an April ceasefire and as Yemen's Houthi rebels threaten to block Israeli shipping in the Red Sea. The renewed escalation and disruption to regional trade flows are weighing on investor sentiment, says Chiro Ghosh of Bahrain-based SICO Bank. Qatar's QE index falls 2%, Abu Dhabi's benchmark index drops 1.4% and Dubai's DFM General Index declines 0.6%, while Saudi Arabia's main index ends up 0.4%. ([e-mail])

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Natural U.S. Gas Futures Decline on Weather Outlook -- Market Talk

0921 ET - U.S. natural gas futures lose ground on lower temperature forecasts for the second half of June and higher production. The July contract "ran into a bearish weekend trifecta of milder weather forecasts, weak LNG and rising supply," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Speculators pared back short positions in the week ended June 2, while adding to long positions, he notes. "While a short-term top may be in near $3.39/mmBtu, unexpected bullish catalysts could trigger a run higher and threaten a wider short-covering event." Nymex natural gas is down 2.8% at $3.139/mmBtu.([e-mail])

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Crude Gains Ease As Israel, Iran Urged to Halt Fighting -- Market Talk

0855 ET - Oil futures pull back from highs after President Trump urges Israel and Iran to stop their strikes and Iran says it has ended its retaliatory attacks on Israel. The renewed outbreak of fighting between Iran and Israel sent prices soaring overnight on concerns that it could derail efforts to bring the Middle East conflict to an end. Trump posted that peace negotiations are proceeding, and said the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain in effect until a "Final Deal" is reached. WTI is up 1.4% at $91.78 a barrel and Brent is 1.8% higher at $94.73. ([e-mail])

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BP Needs to Define Ideal Capital Structure -- Market Talk

1030 GMT - BP's management team need to set out their ideal capital structure and identify growth drivers, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes. New CEO Meg O'Neill also needs to announce the leaders of the new upstream and downstream divisions, she writes. As part of this process, O'Neill will need to define the future of the low carbon business which has been a source of suboptimal investments and still needs careful management, Rainforth adds. Shares rise 1.2% to 552.30 pence. ([e-mail])

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BP Shares Have Significant Upside Potential Despite Boardroom Turmoil -- Market Talk

1018 GMT - BP shares have significant upside potential if management can execute its simplification strategy, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes. The sudden departure of Chairman Albert Manifold shouldn't distract from the success management has had so far, she adds. The leadership team recognizes change is needed and want to accelerate the strategy, Rainforth says. New CEO Meg O'Neill has made an impressive start to her tenure by opting to reset the company into upstream and downstream divisions, she adds. Shares rise 1.2% to 552.30 pence. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Higher Amid Higher Crude Prices -- Market Talk

1014 GMT - Palm oil ended higher as crude oil prices rose amid escalating Iran-Israel tensions fueling concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Despite the rise in the session, Nomura expects palm oil prices to fall slightly this week due to worries of higher palm oil supply going forward, anticipating prices to fall to 4,500 ringgit a ton by June 11. However, if the Middle East conflict escalates, CPO prices could rise to 4,600 ringgit a ton, the analysts note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery ended 19 ringgit higher at 4,573 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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OPEC+ Could Unwind 2022 Output Cuts Eventually, But Market Dynamics Might Complicate Path -- Market Talk

0830 GMT - OPEC+ could begin unwinding the 2 million barrels per day of official cuts agreed to in October 2022 once voluntary reductions are fully reversed, though market dynamics might complicate that path, Rystad Energy says. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and flows normalize, the market is expected to see the return of OPEC+ supply, stronger U.S. shale production, and weaker demand after a prolonged period of elevated prices, says Rystad's Jorge Leon. In the near term, that excess supply could be absorbed through rebuilding strategic and commercial inventories. But once restocking is complete, a structural surplus may re-emerge, potentially forcing OPEC+ back into coordinated production cuts. The key challenge will be maintaining cohesion: discipline is easier in tight markets than when rising supply forces members to decide who shoulders the burden of restraint, says Leon. ([e-mail])

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Gold Likely to Benefit From Continued Central-Bank Buying -- Market Talk

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06-08-26 1203ET