On the stock market, November goes all in on Friday

European markets were left to drift yesterday in the absence of their usual compass, with Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving - a holiday famed for its stuffed poultry and pumpkin pie. The lack of direction from across the Atlantic left trading floors across the Old Continent notably subdued. The final session of the month is also expected to be rather uneventful.

Will November 2025 end in the green or the red? That question remains unanswered as we head into the last trading day of the month, with performance differentials still minimal. Across Europe, the pan-regional Stoxx Europe 600 index has gained a modest 0.54% compared with its level on 31 October. It's a slim cushion, but one that offers a glimmer of hope for a fifth consecutive month of gains. Delving into specifics, France, Germany and the UK remain slightly in negative territory, while markets with heavier weightings in financials (Italy, Spain) and healthcare (Switzerland, Belgium) have moved ahead.

In the United States, the recent sharp rebound has not entirely erased the early-November air pocket. The S&P 500 (-0.4%) and the Dow Jones (-0.3%) have little ground to recover to claw their way into the black and extend a seven-month winning streak. The Nasdaq 100, however, remains down 2.4% for the month, making the task significantly harder.

Moreover, today's trading session is likely to be heavily truncated. The day following Thanksgiving is a half-day on Wall Street, with trading open from 9:30 am to 1:00 pm ( New York time). Needless to say, many market participants are away, enjoying a long weekend. Volumes are typically thin.

Looking ahead, December, which begins on Monday, is statistically one of the strongest months for equities. According to Yardeni Research, over the past 97 years, the US market has ended December higher on 70 occasions and lower on just 27. It is, by far, the month least likely to post a decline; April, the next best performer, has a gain/loss ratio of 62/36. That said, December's advances tend to be more muted than those of other months, and its declines similarly less severe. Notably, the bulk of gains are often concentrated in the week leading up to Christmas, in what is commonly known as the "Santa Claus Rally". It's as if investors are treating themselves to a small gift before year-end quiet descends.

In Europe, and over a shorter time span of 27 years, December has yielded a positive return 18 times versus nine negative showings on the Stoxx Europe 600. Again, the odds appear favourable.

Of course, there is a caveat. Had you made a seasonally-based investment last year, betting on December's historical tendency to deliver gains, you would have been disappointed. December 2024 was unkind to investors, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.5% and the S&P 500 shedding 2.5%.

Donald Trump did not remain silent over Thanksgiving. The US President addressed several topics, as is his custom. Following an attack on members of the National Guard in Washington DC, he announced a halt to immigration from the "third world". In a different vein, he suggested that his administration could reduce, or even eliminate, income tax over the next two years, funded by revenues from tariffs. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin signalled openness to peace negotiations in Ukraine, based on proposals from the White House. The highly controversial US envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected in Moscow next week.

On the macroeconomic front, several European countries, including France and Italy, are releasing preliminary inflation data for November. Unlike in the US, where rate cuts are under consideration, European investors see no such moves on the horizon. Inflation figures therefore currently carry less weight for financial markets.

In the Asia-Pacific region, markets ended the week on a mixed note, in the absence of guidance from Wall Street. Japan, India and Taiwan posted modest gains. Australia was flat. South Korea saw notable selling pressure, with the KOSPI down 1.5%, while Hong Kong slipped 0.3%. Western futures are pointing slightly higher.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: in Japan, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail orders, and retail sales; in France, consumer confidence, economic confidence, EU harmonized CPI, PPI, and private sector jobs; in Switzerland, GDP and KOF leading indicator; in Germany, unemployment change, EU harmonized CPI, and CPI. See the full calendar here.

• GBP / USD: US$1.32
• Gold: US$4,187.54
• Crude Oil (BRENT): US$63.1
• United States 10 years: 4.01%
• BITCOIN: US$91,435.4

In corporate news:

• Jaguar Land Rover (Tata Motors) faced production declines due to a cyberattack, impacting UK manufacturing output.
• Corporate Travel Management (CTM) withdrew its 2025 earnings forecast and restated £77.6 million in revenues due to accounting discrepancies.
• Delivery Hero shares rose after investor demands for a strategic review, including potential sale or divestitures.
• Leonardo launched the "Michelangelo Dome" air defense system with integrated multi-domain sensors.
• BioArctic submitted a regulatory filing for a subcutaneous formulation of Leqembi in Japan.
• Banco de Sabadell saw board member David Martinez Guzman resign after a failed merger bid with BBVA.
• Delfin cooperates with Milan prosecutors, asserting innocence in the MPS-Mediobanca takeover investigation.
• Lidds AB executed a reverse takeover of Proport Invest for approximately SEK 75 million.
• CME Group halted trading due to a cooling system failure at CyrusOne data centers, affecting futures and index products.
• Oracle is in talks with banks for a $38 billion loan to fund new OpenAI sites.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

• Diageo Plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1840 to GBX 1790.
• British American Tobacco P.l.c.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 4400 to GBX 4900.
• Serica Energy Plc: Shore Capital maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 225 to GBX 230.
• Coca-Cola Hellenic: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 4485 to GBX 4470.
• Jet2 Plc: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1800 to GBX 1640.
• Zegona Communications Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 1350 to GBX 1600.
• Entain Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1400 to GBX 1200.
• Relx Plc: ING Bank maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from EUR 56 to EUR 53.
• Johnson Matthey Plc: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 54 to USD 55.
• Astrazeneca Plc: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 88 to USD 98.