OPEC Crude Output Drops as Iran War Chokes Exports -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 5.1% to $100.07 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 6% to 46.25 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures rise 1% to $12,970.00 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 0.95% to $4,742.20 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

OPEC Crude Output Drops as Iran War Chokes Exports

OPEC's crude oil production plunged in March as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced key members to curb output and divert exports to alternative routes.

Production fell by 7.89 million barrels a day to 20.79 million barrels a day, while output from the broader OPEC+ alliance slumped by 7.70 million barrels a day to 35.05 million barrels a day. Iraq--heavily reliant on the critical waterway--suffered the steepest decline, followed by Saudi Arabia, though the kingdom managed to reroute flows through the Red Sea.

OTHER STORIES:

Maritime Access Restrictions Affecting Iran Have Been Enforced, U.K. Agency Says

The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center said maritime access restrictions affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas have been enforced after President Trump said a U.S. blockade would take effect at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

The measures apply to vessels engaging with Iranian ports, oil terminals and coastal facilities, including locations along the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.

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An Iran War Winner: China's Green Industrial Complex

Countries around the world are rushing to add renewable energy such as solar power after the Iran war throttled Middle East oil and gas supplies. It is a boon for Beijing, because the technology often comes from China.

Ali al-Khazali lives in Baghdad and spent $2,000 recently on Chinese-made rooftop solar panels plus a battery to store electricity after sundown. Al-Khazali said he was worried about disruptions to the power supply in the scorching summer months because Iraq, despite its oil reserves, depends partly on imported natural gas to keep power plants running.

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Kolibri Global Energy Projects Higher 2026 Output, Revenue Amid Rising Oil Prices

Kolibri Global Energy expects higher output and revenue in 2026, and said that guidance could skew higher if the price of oil continues to rise.

The Canadian energy company said on Monday that oil output is expected to rise 10% to 20% to an average of 4,400 to 4,800 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2026.

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Aluminum Prices Rise to Four-Year High on Hormuz Blockade Fears, Failed Iran Talks

Aluminum prices climbed to a four-year high after U.S.-Iran peace talks broke down and President Trump threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, stoking concerns over prolonged disruptions to global supplies.

In mid-morning European trading, three-month aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.7% to $3,571 a metric ton, their highest since March 2022.

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Oil Climbs Above $100 a Barrel Ahead of U.S. Blockade of Iranian Traffic Via Hormuz

Oil prices climbed back above $100 a barrel as the U.S. prepares to block ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to and from Iran, deepening fears of a prolonged energy shock after weekend talks broke down.

In early European trading on Monday, Brent crude gained 6.8% to $101.7 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 7.2% to $103.55 a barrel. Natural-gas prices also jumped, with the front-month Dutch TTF contract--the European benchmark--up 9% to 47.58 euros a megawatt-hour.

MARKET TALKS:

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Start Week With Moderate Gains -- Market Talk

0944 ET - U.S. natural gas futures get a bit of a lift from the rise in oil prices after U.S.-Iran talks broke down without agreement and a U.S. blockade at the Strait of Hormuz is set to take effect, while the domestic weather outlook turned a little less bearish for near-term demand. "Physical demand may recover 8 Bcf/d by next Monday, and weak spot prices and shoulder-season pipeline maintenance may limit production and discourage Canadian imports," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. An increase in speculator short positioning, meanwhile, "is an indicator for a potential relief rally after five straight weeks of Nymex natural gas losses," he adds. Natural gas is up 2.2% at $2.706/mmBtu. ([e-mail])

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Hormuz Closure by U.S. Adds Upside to Oil Futures -- Market Talk

0910 ET - The U.S. decision to block the Strait of Hormuz after weekend talks broke down is likely to bring oil price futures closer to higher physical prices, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The spread is expected to narrow "with futures likely advancing toward high physical levels rather than the spot market drifting down toward the futures," the firm adds. "Further war escalation is apt to tighten the physical market further in a futures market deserving of a larger risk premium than currently exists." WTI is up 7.4% at $103.67 a barrel and Brent rises 6.9% to $101.75. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Rises, Tracking Soybean Oil, Crude Gains -- Market Talk

1007 GMT - Palm oil prices closed higher, tracking soybean oil gains and higher crude oil prices, said David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The ongoing Middle East conflict is supporting sentiment in the palm oil market, he said. Ng sees support for prices at 4,500 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,680 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery closed 19 ringgit higher at 4,557 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Aluminum Rises to Four-Year High On Trump's Hormuz Blockade -- Market Talk

0652 GMT - Aluminum prices jump to their highest level in four years as President Trump's looming blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and failed talks with Iran threaten to further disrupt global supplies. The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global output and is heavily reliant on the waterway to export aluminum and import the ?raw materials needed to produce the metal, with key producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. In early European trading, three-month aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange rise 0.8% to $3,540 a metric ton, the highest since March 2022. ([e-mail])

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Gold Falls as Trump Hormuz Blockade Threats, Failed Iran Talks Raise Inflation Fears -- Market Talk

0634 GMT - Gold prices fall as President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of a prolonged energy supply shock, pushing oil back above $100 a barrel. "The sharp decline in the oil price last week restored confidence in the deflationary narrative and revived the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. "However, a surge in the oil price is likely to put further rate cut hopes to bed for now." Geopolitical risks typically boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, though a higher interest rate environment weighs on the non-yielding metal. In early European trading, New York gold futures are down 0.8% to $4,748.70 a troy ounce. Silver falls 2.5% to $74.57 an ounce, while platinum is down 0.7% to $2,051.60 an ounce. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-13-26 1055ET