OPEC+ Expected to Resume Output Hikes at Sunday Meeting -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 2.8% to $72.83 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 1.33% to 32.58 euros a megawatt hour.

--Gold futures are up 1.1% to $5,249.90 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are up 1.2% to $13,412.50 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

OPEC+ Expected to Resume Output Hikes at Sunday Meeting

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies meet Sunday with a familiar dilemma: add barrels to the market or continue holding back against a fragile geopolitical backdrop.

OPEC+, the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to keep output steady in the first quarter after a series of production increases last year. Analysts say the group is now expected to resume hikes, starting with a modest increase of 137,000 barrels a day.

OTHER STORIES:

Petronas' Second-Half Earnings Fell on Lower Oil and Gas Prices, Impairment Losses

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia--Petroliam Nasional's second-half net profit fell 16%, weighed by lower crude oil and gas prices and impairment losses on assets.

Malaysia's national oil-and-gas company, better known as Petronas, on Friday posted net profit of 17.14 billion ringgit, equivalent to $4.41 billion, for the six months ended December, compared with 20.46 billion ringgit a year earlier.

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Massimo Zanetti CEO Expects Stable Coffee Demand This Year

The head of Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group expects coffee demand to remain stable, despite potential supply chain issues ahead with new tariffs and potential military conflicts.

One reason for the stable outlook is that the stress that boosted U.S. coffee prices in 2025 isn't expected to occur again this year, said Pierluigi Tosato, chief executive of the Italian company that owns Chock Full o'Nuts and other international coffee and espresso brands.

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India Taps Saudi Crude as Russian Imports Slow Under U.S. Pressure

Indian crude imports hit record levels this February as refiners tap Saudi barrels to replace Russian oil sanctioned by the West, reflecting how U.S. pressure is reshaping flows.

President Trump said earlier this month that India had agreed to stop buying oil from Russia as part of a trade pact that saw the U.S. cut levies on Indian goods to 18% from 50%. Now, a Supreme Court ruling that Trump's global tariffs are illegal has cast doubt on the deal's future, even though the U.S. administration has urged countries to honor existing agreements.

MARKET TALKS:

Gold on Track for Weekly Gain of Nearly 5% on Haven Appeal -- Market Talk

1505 GMT - Gold prices extend gains in afternoon trading as tensions between the U.S. and Iran boost the asset's safe-haven appeal. New York futures rise 1% to $5,343.40 a troy ounce and are on track for a weekly gain of nearly 5%. Other precious metals are following suit: silver futures gaining 5.5% to $92.44 an ounce and platinum rising 6.1% to $2,377 an ounce. Prices are also supported by uncertainty over U.S. global tariffs and the future of existing trade deals following the Supreme Court ruling on the matter. Meanwhile, monthly wholesale inflation unexpectedly sped up in January, the latest U.S. data showed. ([e-mail])

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Cattle Lower as Market Watches for Potential Labor Strike -- Market Talk

0954 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are lower in early trading, with market observers watching for how a potential strike action at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colo. plays out. "A technical breakdown, ongoing anxieties around a potential labor strike at JBS Greeley plant, a feeder cattle index now $4+ off its highs, and significant slowdowns in slaughter rates all likely playing a role in the move," says StoneX in a note, referencing the move lower that started yesterday that appears to have moved into today. The labor union has been hosting strike registration events at the plant this week, although no formal strike has been announced. Cattle is down 0.1%, while lean hogs rise 0.1%. ([e-mail])

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain Ahead of Weekend -- Market Talk

0934 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher with a spell of cold weather expected across the northern U.S. at the weekend and into early next week likely to lift near-term heating demand. Milder weather forecasts into mid-March are keeping a lid on advances. The storage deficit shrank last week to 7 Bcf from 123 Bcf with a much smaller-than-usual withdrawal. "While a cold outbreak early next week may briefly enlarge the deficit, mid-March warmth and robust natural gas production are likely to drive substantial surpluses in the spring," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 1.8% at $2.878/mmBtu.([e-mail])

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Oil Futures Jump on Rising U.S.-Iran Conflict Risk -- Market Talk

0901 ET - Oil futures are extending gains on rising expectations of U.S. military action against Iran after talks ended Thursday without a deal, with the two sides still seen far from any agreement. The U.S. Embassy in Israel said the State Department authorized non-emergency staff and their families to leave the country, citing safety risks. "The market is telling us that risks are still very high for a U.S. attack," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. China's foreign ministry is reported to tell its citizens to avoid travel to Iran. WTI is up 3.5% at $67.48 a barrel and most active Brent rises 3.5% to $73.30.([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Higher on Likely Bargain-Hunting -- Market Talk

1026 GMT - Palm oil ended higher on likely bargain hunting after a recent decline. Soybean oil's higher prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade also supported the vegetable oil's prices, Kenanga Futures said. However, there are ongoing concerns over softer export demand and a strengthening ringgit that could weigh on foreign buying interest, it says. The brokerage sets the support and resistance for the May futures contract at 3,955 ringgit and 4,095 ringgit, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery ended 35 ringgit higher at 4,040 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Iran Races to Move Oil as Ships Mask Identities With 'Zombie Vessel' Trick, Kpler Says -- Market Talk

0949 GMT - Iranian oil exports have surged after the U.S. carried out its largest military buildup in the Middle East since 2003, with operators increasingly using a trick that lets ships disguise themselves as other, inactive vessels. "Fearful of strikes or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran rushes to clear stocks, leading to a spike in desperate deception tactics," says Nhway Khin Soe from Kpler. "Central to this is 'zombie vessel' spoofing, where active tankers broadcast the AIS [automatic identification system] data of scrapped or inactive ships to create a digital mask." These tactics complicate maritime tracking and safety, as digital signals no longer reliably reflect the physical location or status of ships, according to the data provider. ([e-mail])

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Gold Poised for Weekly Gain of Nearly 4% on Haven Demand -- Market Talk

0834 GMT - Gold prices are broadly steady in early trading, but are headed for a weekly gain of nearly 4% on news that the U.S. and Iran will continue discussions next week. Futures in New York are flat at $5,193.60 a troy ounce. "Gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical and policy shocks is once again in focus," says Ewa Manthey from ING. At record prices, buyers are becoming more price sensitive, so short-term pullbacks or consolidation are to be expected. However, the main drivers of the rally--central bank diversification, geopolitical tensions, possible policy easing, and renewed ETF demand--remain strong, according to market watchers. ([e-mail])

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Oil Rises With Focus on U.S.-Iran Talks, OPEC+ Meeting -- Market Talk

0825 GMT - Oil prices rise as investors digest news that the U.S. and Iran will resume discussions next week after the latest round of talks wrapped up on Thursday without a deal. Brent crude rises 0.9% to $71.45 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.7% to $65.32 a barrel. Discussions "on a technical level" will take place next week in Vienna, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi said in a post on X. However, markets remain on edge as any potential escalation of tensions could disrupt energy flows. Traders are also awaiting OPEC+'s meeting on Sunday for signals on future production policy. ([e-mail])

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Press Metal Aluminium Looks Set for Another Record-Breaking Year -- Market Talk

0254 GMT - Press Metal Aluminium looks set for another record-breaking year, thanks to higher aluminum prices, RHB IB analyst Iftaar Hakim Rusli writes in a report. A weaker dollar, strong copper prices and tightening aluminum supply keep RHB bullish on the company. However, although aluminum prices have been supported by stable alumina costs, the analyst notes that it could be partially held back by recent geopolitical uncertainties, which could weigh on demand. RHB maintains its buy rating on the stock and target price of MYR8.50. Shares are last 2.8% lower at MYR7.39. ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Rises Amid Supportive Macro Policies, Recovering Demand -- Market Talk

0228 GMT - Iron ore rises in early Asian trading amid a modest recovery in market sentiment on supportive macro policies, Nanhua analysts say in a commentary. Prices have declined significantly lately, as traders have largely priced in earlier negative factors. While the durability of marginal supply-side improvements remains uncertain, steel mills in China have resumed production and begun restocking after the Lunar New Year holiday, with hot metal output expected to continue recovering. "If macro expectations and steel demand improve, downside support for prices will strengthen," Nanhua adds. The most-traded contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 0.2% at CNY750.00 a ton. ([e-mail])

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Copper Falls Amid Softer Chinese Demand -- Market Talk

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02-27-26 1031ET