In a research note published in collaboration with Agency Partners, Panmure Liberum highlights a significant revision to its forecasts, driven by improved visibility on Rafale deliveries, which underpins the medium-term valuation. The production ramp-up is expected to serve as a key catalyst through the early 2030s.

The note cautions, however, that this momentum is partially offset by lower expected profitability for Falcon jets, due to high learning-curve costs on the 6X and 10X models, as well as a structural increase in French corporate taxation.

According to the brokerage, EBIT forecasts have been trimmed by an average of approximately 12% per year, while EPS estimates are revised down by roughly 9% annually, despite partial support from equity income related to the stake in Thales.

Finally, the broker notes that news flow surrounding the Rafale (India, UAE, future standards) could trigger volatility, while maintaining long-term upside potential.