The Paris stock exchange opened the week with a slight uptick, gaining 0.1% and just edging above the 8200-point mark, buoyed by Eurofins Scientific (+6.7%), Thales (+3.9%), and Schneider Electric (+1.3%).

Investors appear largely unfazed by the surprise intervention led by the United States in Venezuela and the deportation of the South American president to New York. By carrying out this bold operation, Washington has signaled to the world its intent to maintain its status as a superpower, notably through control of global energy resources.

More pragmatically, the decision reflects the American desire to bring its major oil companies back to a country where infrastructure is considered degraded and oil reserves remain largely underexploited. For now, the reaction in oil prices has been extremely muted, with WTI slipping 0.1% (USD 57.2 per barrel) and Brent retreating 0.2% (USD 60.6).

"Venezuelan oil exports remain modest and there is currently no indication that the situation will cause disruptions in production or sales," analysts at Danske Bank noted this morning.

The reaction from Asian markets may be more telling. In Tokyo, the Nikkei was up nearly 3% by the end of Monday's session, and the MSCI index covering Asia-Pacific stocks gained over 1.2%. Investors seem eager to kick off 2026 by clinging to the well-known adage that the first month of the year is often positive for stock indices, a phenomenon known as the "January effect."

Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight acceleration in eurozone growth for 2026, driven by German fiscal stimulus and resilient consumption, despite increased Chinese competition and interest rates remaining at their current levels.

The eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026, supported by three major cyclical drivers: Germany's fiscal expansion, easing global trade tensions, and robust real income growth for households, the bank said.

However, this dynamism will be limited by structural headwinds, notably the surge in Chinese exports weighing on the industrial competitiveness of Italy and Germany, as well as high energy costs.

On the data front, the real litmus test will come Friday with the release of December employment figures, a favorite market statistic and all the more closely watched since the Fed has explicitly made the labor market a key determinant of its monetary policy direction.

But robust data could raise fears that the central bank acted too soon in cutting rates three times in 2025 and could dampen Wall Street, especially since the S&P 500's more than 16% surge in 2025, following already strong years in 2023 and 2024, now seems to call for a slight correction.

After the jobs report, the "earnings season" will kick off next week, with the first quarterly results from major banks, including JP Morgan.

Strategists warn that profit growth for listed companies will need to materialize to justify the high valuations of US stocks, but the prospect of both earnings growth and confirmation of US economic resilience would certainly pave the way for further strong performances in 2026.

In the bond market, the 10-year Bund yield stands at 2.90%, with the French OAT of the same maturity at 3.60%.

In French corporate news, BNP Paribas announced Monday that it had reached a "major milestone" in integrating its asset management operations following the acquisition of AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM), which was made official over six months ago.

Sanofi reported that the US FDA has accepted for priority review the supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) for its Tzield (teplizumab-mzwv) for young children with stage 2 type 1 diabetes.

Alstom has won three orders totaling EUR 2.5 billion. Specifically, the smart and sustainable mobility specialist has been selected to supply rolling stock to a client in the Americas region for approximately EUR 1.4 billion.

Saint-Gobain has formed a joint venture with a subsidiary of Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (an Indonesian cement maker 53% owned by Heidelberg Materials), with the French group holding 60% and its local partner 40%. The goal of this joint venture is to acquire Indocement's mortar activities in Indonesia.

Finally, Oddo BHF reiterated its "outperform" rating and price target of EUR 236 on Airbus Group, "a stock set to benefit from the gradual improvement of the supply chain and ongoing work to enhance the agility of its industrial operations."