The Paris stock exchange is edging up by around 0.2% this morning, hovering near 8,095 points, buoyed by strong performances from Stellantis (+7%, fueled by expectations of a U.S. recovery and an upgrade from "neutral" to "buy" by UBS), STMicro (+4.3%), and Airbus (+3%).
Today's session will be punctuated by the release of numerous U.S. economic statistics, following a dry spell caused by the recent government shutdown. These will also be the last key indicators before the next Federal Reserve meeting, which begins next Tuesday and will culminate with a monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, December 10.
With no official data from the Department of Labor due to the Washington shutdown, the most significant release today is likely to be the monthly ADP survey on private sector employment in the United States. The report is expected to show modest job creation for November, on the order of 5,000 positions.
Last month, the human resources consultancy highlighted a rebound in private sector job creation for October (+42,000 after -32,000 in September), but the trend has been moderating for several months.
“Companies are laying off few workers but are adjusting actual working hours,” explain economists at Oddo BHF. “They are especially cautious about new hires, and the use of AI appears to be prompting them to limit recruitment of recent graduates,” they note.
The ISM Services Index, due at 4 p.m., will also be closely watched after Monday's disappointing ISM report in the services sector, which reignited fears of “stagflation” by highlighting both a contraction in output and rising factory-gate prices.
Other indicators will be released by the end of the week, but the main focus will be on U.S. inflation as measured by the PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of price dynamics, set for release this Friday.
Investors hope these figures will reinforce the prospect of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy—their preferred scenario—and the continuation of monetary easing across the Atlantic.
Currently, markets are pricing in a more than 89% probability of another rate cut next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, making any disappointment likely to be harshly punished.
In the eurozone, the HCOB composite PMI for overall activity rose for the sixth consecutive month, from 52.5 in October to 52.8 in November, reaching its highest level since May 2023 and surpassing its historical average (52.4).
In France, the HCOB composite PMI for overall activity crossed the 50 threshold, moving into positive territory for the first time since August 2024, rising from 47.7 in October to 50.4 in November.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who is scheduled to speak before the European Parliament in Brussels at 2:30 p.m., may also provide new insights into the economic outlook and future interest rate trajectory.
In London, Brent crude is up 1.1% at $63.1. The euro is gaining 0.2% against the greenback, trading at $1.164.
In the bond market, the 2035 OAT is trading at 3.48%, while the equivalent Bund stands at 2.74%.
In French corporate news, Airbus has revised its target for commercial aircraft deliveries this year to around 790, compared to its previous goal of 820. The manufacturer is facing supplier quality issues with fuselage panels, affecting the delivery flow of its A320 family. After losing nearly 7% over the past two sessions, Airbus shares are rebounding by 3% today.
Eutelsat is down more than 7% in Paris after Softbank announced yesterday it was selling 36 million of its subscription rights in the European satellite operator. The offering of 36 million rights equates to about 26 million Eutelsat shares, nearly half of Softbank Group Capital's current stake. Eutelsat shares have now hit their lowest level since mid-June.
Finally, Clariane has announced the sale of a portfolio comprising the walls of nine nursing and care homes developed between 2010 and 2025 and operated by Korian Belgium, to Belgian real estate company Care Property Invest.
