Wheat prices fell again on the European market on Monday, weighed on by persistent pressure from abundant global supply and intensifying export competition. On Euronext, the most-traded contract for March delivery slipped 0.6% to €187.75 per tonne, while in Chicago, futures were down 0.8% at the start of the session. The downward trend that began last week is being confirmed, amid limited international demand and markets largely unresponsive to geopolitical tensions.
Traders highlight the significant impact of the Argentine harvest, abundant and offered at highly competitive prices. The recent reduction in export taxes in Argentina further adds to this pressure, boosting the appeal of Argentine wheat among Asian and African buyers, despite quality issues linked to weather conditions. China, via the state-owned COFCO International, has launched the first bulk shipment of Argentine wheat bound for the country, confirming the dynamism of this origin on the global market.
Despite ongoing tensions in the Black Sea, notably Russian attacks on ships in Ukrainian ports, markets remain largely insensitive to the situation. Prospects for a potential cease-fire in Ukraine are deemed too uncertain to influence prices, although a resumption of broader Ukrainian exports could, in theory, add to the pressure on prices. As it stands, the market remains driven by supply fundamentals and competitive pricing on the international stage.
