(Alliance News) - The president of the Italian Banking Association, Antonio Patuelli, sounded the alarm in an interview published Wednesday by Il Sole 24 Ore: the outlook for banks is less favorable than in recent years, which had been buoyed by rising interest rates.

"Interest rates have fallen throughout 2025," and in the next quarter, the comparison will show an even sharper decline. "Commissions from savings management" have helped offset this, but "if the stock markets plummet" due to the war in Iran, "savings management will not perform the miracles it has in recent years."

Speaking at the national council of FABI, Patuelli described the conflict as "a much more serious war" than previous Middle Eastern crises: "When war breaks out, it is like falling into a black hole." The crisis, he warned, is "extremely severe" and "takes a toll on businesses, services, and banks," posing risks to economic and financial stability.

On the domestic front, the agreement with the government regarding the budget "is for three years," and "we have no signs" of new demands. Finally, the ABI is considering a possible cut to the tax rate on corporate and bank bonds: "If returns for savers increase, the State earns more in taxes."

By Michele Cirulli, Alliance News reporter

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