PETROBRAS. LEADER IN A JUST ENERGY TRANSITION IN BRAZIL
BRA ZIL IS OUR ENER6 Y
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
BRAZILIAN CONTEXT AND OVERVIEW 12
PETROBRAS IN THE JUST ENERGY TRANSITION 18
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION RISKS 21
Risk Management Governance 21
Risks Related to Climate Change and the Energy Transition 22
SCENARIOS & RESILIENCE 34Scenarios 34
Financial Resilience Analysis 36
OUR STRATEGY 40Our Business Strategies 41
Our ESG Positioning 42
ESG Drivers - SP 2050 and BP 2026-30 42
Our Position on Climate Change and Energy Transition 43
Ambitions and Commitments to Reduce our Carbon Footprint 44
INVESTMENTS IN ENERGY TRANSITION 47 CARBON NEUTRAL PROGRAM: LEVERAGING SOLUTIONS FOR THE NET-ZERO PATHWAY 49Integrated MAC Curve 50
Decarbonization Fund 51
DECARBONIZATION INCENTIVES IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS 53 GOVERNANCE RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION 55
Targets Linked to Variable Compensation for Employees and Senior Management 57
LOW-CARBON RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND INNOVATION 59Optimizing Current Assets and the Oil and Gas of the Future 59
New Business 61
DECARBONIZATION INITIATIVES 66Decarbonization of Exploration and Production 66
Downstream Decarbonization 75
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION OPPORTUNITIES 89Bioproducts 92
Other Products 97
Low-Carbon Energy 99
CCUS 101
Corporate Venture Capital Fund for Energy Transition 101
Nature-based Solutions and Carbon Credits 102
CARBON PERFORMANCE 108Our Emissions Inventory 108
Carbon Performance 109
ENGAGEMENT 121Transparency as a Pillar of Climate Engagement 121
Cooperation, Knowledge Sharing, and Best Practices 122
Public Policy Engagement 126
Position on Climate Policy 126
Governance Structure for Climate Advocacy 129
Participation in External Entities 129
Workforce Engagement 134
Customer Engagement 135
Supplier Engagement 136
Just Transition 138
Contents
APPENDICES 142
Appendix 1 - Note n° 5 to the 2025 Financial Statements 142
Appendix 2 - Metrics table 150
Appendix 3 - Glossary 154
Appendix 4 - Map to TCFD requirements 158
Appendix 5 - References 160
DISCLAIMER 162
Letter from the Chairman of the HSE Committee of the Board of Directors
We are pleased to present this new edition of the Climate Change and Energy Transition Supplement. This instrument fosters transparency and dialogue with our stakeholders. This year, we added energy transition to the document title. This change reflects our engagement with solutions across multiple sectors, including the expansion of our bioproducts portfolio and investments in renewable power generation, carbon capture, and nature-based solutions. We are committed to moving the company forward responsibly and transparently, aligning our strategy with society's needs and the challenges of climate change.
Science confirms global warming is real and requires immediate action. Meanwhile, energy demand rises as economies develop and social well-being improves.
Our strategic planning considers the Brazilian context, where the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is land-use change rather than the energy sector. We have the most diversified and renewable energy matrix among G20 members. However, our per capita energy consumption remains below the global average. In this context, we seek to reduce GHG emissions and decarbonize operations while ensuring a safe and affordable energy supply for society.
Investments in the energy transition will total US$ 13 billion over the 2026-2030 period, covering decarbonization of operations, profitable diversification, and research, development, and innovation (R&D&I).
Emissions management, climate risks, and opportunities are now central to our strategy and governance. Our ambition is to achieve carbon-neutral operational emissions by 2050, supporting Brazil's commitments, and we have already made significant progress.
We are committed to being part of the solution. The energy transition needs innovation, investment, and open dialogue to succeed. We move ahead, reconciling oil and gas production with diversifying into low-carbon businesses. Our purpose is to provide energy that creates prosperity and well-being for society-ethically, fairly, safely, sustainably, and competitively.
Rosangela Buzanelli Torres Chairman of the HSE Committee Member of the Board of DirectorsLetter from the President of Petrobras and Energy Transition and Sustainability Executive Officer
This new edition of the Climate Change and Energy Transition Supplement shows that, in recent years, Petrobras has advanced along its decarbonization pathway, reaffirming its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Since 2015, we have reduced methane emissions by 62%, and in 2025 we surpassed the 80 million tonnes of CO₂ reinjected into the pre-salt, consolidating our technological leadership in carbon capture (CCUS). We have maintained the lowest emissions intensity in Exploration and Production (E&P) activities in the industry, as a result of a strategy that combines operational efficiency with technological innovation.
The Brazilian context, marked by a diversified energy mix and growing energy demand, presents significant opportunities for expanding renewable energy sources. Fossil fuels will continue to play a significant role, given the projected growth in demand in the country's energy planning. Our ambition is to maintain Petrobras's share in energy supply through 2050, balancing our focus on oil and gas-which remains essential for Brazil's energy security and for the economic viability of the energy transition-with responsible expansion into low-carbon energies and bioproducts.
In 2025, we made progress on structural issues related to both emissions' mitigation and climate adaptation capacity. Key highlights include advances in developing the Carbon Neutral Program-which identifies cost-effective opportunities for decarbonizing our operations-actions to enhance transparency through a "technology roadmap," and the alternatives assessed and prioritized for medium- and long-term decarbonization.
The new cycle of strategic investments expands the focus on bioproducts, including ethanol, biodiesel, and biomethane. We have also invested in co-processed products, such as Diesel R5, SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), and Bunker B24, which are already contributing to short-term emissions reductions. At the same time, the strategic partnership with Lightsource bp marks our entry into utility-scale solar energy, an important step in diversifying our portfolio. We remain committed to reconciling the energy transition with value creation and the energy security of our country.
Magda Chambriard President of Petrobras William FrançaEnergy Transition and Sustainability Executive Officer
Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
We address the challenges of climate change and energy transition and their implications for our business, and we seek transparency through the publication of this Climate Change and Energy Transition Supplement.
This report presents key information on our climate change and energy transition risks and opportunities, as well as our vision, actions, and commitments related to this topic, in accordance with the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), which form the basis for the development of new climate-related disclosure standards, including IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures, issued by the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB).
Brazil has achieved remarkable progress, with renewables accounting for 50% of the energy mix and
88.2% of the electricity mix by 2024-well above global averages (16% and 32%, respectively).In the transportation sector, the country stands out with 25.5% liquid biofuels, compared to 4% globally, establishing itself as the world's second-largest producer. These results reflect decades of structural public policies, including Proálcool, RenovaBio, and, more recently, the Fuel of the Future Law.
This context highlights the unique characteristics of the country's emissions profile. In 2022, Brazil recorded approximately 2 GtCO₂e in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of which 71% were associated with land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), as well as agriculture and livestock. The energy sector accounted for only 21% of these emissions-a proportion significantly lower than the nearly 70% observed globally. The oil and gas sector accounts for 12% of emissions from the national energy sector, equivalent to just 2% of Brazil's total emissions.
Globally, Brazil's total emissions correspond to 3.5% of total global emissions, and the Brazilian energy sector accounts for 1% of total emissions from the global energy sector.
Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets a target to reduce emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035 (compared to 2005 levels) and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The country's strategy includes expanding renewables, advancing biofuels, and electrifying and modernizing mobility.
The energy transition must occur in a fair and inclusive manner, balancing ambitious climate goals with the need to overcome energy poverty and implement structural measures to combat deforestation. Per capita energy consumption remains low, equivalent to one-quarter of the consumption observed in developed countries and below the global average, reinforcing the need to expand energy supply in support of socioeconomic development.
In this context, we reaffirm our vision as expressed in the Strategic Plan 2050 (SP 2050), combining continuity and competitiveness in oil and gas exploration with profitable expansion into low-carbon businesses.
We currently account for 31% of the country's energy supply, a position we intend to maintain through 2050, ensuring the supply required for sustainable economic development alongside the progressive expansion of low-carbon sources. Diversification alternatives complement each other over time, and our entry into business segments occurs in line with regulatory and market developments.
We incorporate uncertainties related to the global energy market into our three corporate scenarios, which present different paces for the energy transition. All scenarios indicate a long-term reduction in oil consumption, at varying rates. Despite this reduction, even under our fastest and most ambitious energy transition scenario, new Exploration and Production (E&P) projects remain necessary due to the natural decline of existing fields.
Petrobras stands out for its dual resilience: economic and environmental. The carbon intensity of the oil we produce is below the global average, according to the International Association of Oil and Gas
Producers (IOGP), reflecting operational efficiency, loss reduction, and continuous improvement initiatives. From an economic perspective, the Brent break-even price of US$25/bbl for our portfolio highlights the robustness of our E&P assets and projects, reinforcing our financial sustainability.
We have a proven track record in managing risks related to climate change and the energy transition, integrated into corporate governance and systematically assessed at different hierarchical levels. Risks are classified as transition risks (related to adaptation to a low-carbon economy) and physical risks (linked to the physical impacts of climate change). Their assessment follows corporate risk governance procedures, with periodic reporting to the Executive Board and the Board of Directors.
Our strategy is guided by our ESG commitments: reducing our carbon footprint; protecting the environment; caring for people; and acting with integrity.
We highlight our operational emissions reduction commitments:
30% reduction in absolute operational emissions by 2030 (compared to 2015)
Elimination of routine flaring by 2030
GHG intensity of 15 kgCO₂e/boe in E&P and 30 kgCO₂e/CWT in Refining by 2030
- Methane emissions intensity in upstream operations of 0.20 tCH₄/1,000 tHC by 2030
Additionally, we aim to achieve net zero by 2050, while maintaining annual emissions below 55 MMtCO₂ and near-zero methane emissions by 2030.
We reduced absolute emissions from our operational activities by 36%, reaching a total of 50 million tCO₂e by 2025. We also reduced direct methane emissions by 62% between 2015 and 2025, and for the third consecutive year received the Gold Standard Pathway designation from the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP), recognizing our methane emissions management implementation plan across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations.Our 2026-2030 Business Plan (BP 2026-30) allocates US$13 billion-12% of total investments-to energy transition initiatives, covering operational decarbonization, low-carbon energy, bioproducts, and R&D&I.
To advance the decarbonization of our activities, we established the Carbon Neutral Program, a cross-functional tool designed to manage the mitigation of operational emissions through an integrated view of initiatives developed across multiple business areas. In addition, we maintain a climate change governance structure that ensures cross-functional integration of this topic across all segments in which we operate, with GHG emissions metrics linked to variable compensation for all employees.
We have developed technological roadmaps that guide short-, medium-, and long-term mitigation actions aligned with our commitments and ambitions. In the short term, priority is given to initiatives focused on operational efficiency and loss reduction, such as reducing natural gas and diesel consumption through equipment modernization, energy integration, and continuous monitoring of gas losses (flaring, venting, and fugitive emissions). In the medium and long term, electrification and CCUS technologies take center stage, together with disruptive innovations with significant mitigation potential.
To advance the offering of low-carbon solutions, the BP 2026-30 places greater emphasis on bioproducts, which present strong synergies with our operations. We produce and market Diesel R, we anticipated the commercialization of SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), and supply vessels with bunker fuel containing renewable content. We conduct Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of our products to meet the requirements of voluntary and regulated markets, which demand information on product carbon intensity and low-carbon solutions.
Projected growth in demand from traditional sectors, combined with new electrification needs, is expected to drive expansion in renewable power generation, particularly after 2030. We seek partnerships in solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power to capture commercial and self-generation opportunities, in addition to evaluating investments in the energy storage segment, either independently or through partnerships. A highlight is the strategic partnership with Lightsource bp to drive the development of renewable energy projects in Brazil, particularly in the solar segment.
O projeto piloto de CCS São Tomé (litoral norte do estado do Rio de Janeiro) prevê a injeção de 100 mil
tCO₂ por ano em reservatório salino.
We plan to operate in low-carbon hydrogen, focusing on developing businesses and products to meet internal and external market demand. Our first pilot plant, located at the Vale do Açu Thermal Power Plant (Rio Grande do Norte), has a capacity of 2 MW and is scheduled to begin operations in the first half of 2026.
We are also evaluating the implementation of CCUS hubs in Brazil, aimed at providing services to offset both our own emissions and those of third parties. The São Tomé CCS pilot project (on the northern coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro) plans to inject 100,000 tCO₂ per year into a saline reservoir.
Emissions offsets derived from carbon credits are considered complementary tools within our decarbonization strategy. These credits may be nature-based, leveraging the potential of forests, soils, oceans, and marine algae, or generated through technological solutions.We launched ProFloresta+, focused on acquiring carbon credits from ecological restoration projects in the Amazon, as well as a public call for proposals titled Nature-Based Solutions for Climate Adaptation and Resilience in Cities, reinforcing our efforts in climate adaptation. We participate in several voluntary socio-environmental projects which, in addition to contributing to GHG emissions reductions, generate significant social and environmental benefits.
Our commitment extends beyond internal activities, seeking to engage different sectors of society in recognition that climate change and the energy transition require coordinated action among multiple stakeholders.
We adopt transparent, proactive, and collaborative advocacy practices. We participate in forums and establish partnerships in initiatives that strengthen our commitment to a just energy transition and to science and innovation, such as Carbon Countdown - an initiative that brings together different sectors of society to develop the largest inventory of carbon stocks ever conducted in Brazil - and AmazonFACE, which studies the effects of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on the Amazon rainforest and their implications for the global climate.
Thus, SP 2050 encapsulates our trajectory as an integrated energy company committed to a just energy transition aligned with Brazil's socioeconomic development, industrial competitiveness, and energy security.
Brazilian Context and Overview
Brazilian Context and Overview
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION SUPPLEMENT - 2025 11
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Brazilian Context and Overview
Brazil occupies a prominent position in the climate agenda, both as a major emerging economy and as a country whose energy system is already largely based on renewable sources (hydropower, biomass, wind, and solar), providing a structurally distinct starting point for the energy transition.
By 2024, Brazil had increased the share of renewables in its energy mix to 50%, driven by the accelerated integration of wind, solar, and bioenergy sources, resulting in an electricity mix that was 88.2% renewable. During the same period, renewables accounted for 16% of global total energy supply and 32% of global electricity generation.
These shares are consistent with long-term projections from global energy transition scenarios1.
Source: Prepared by the author based on World Energy Transition Outlook 2024: 1.5°C Pathway (IRENA, 2024), World Energy Outlook 2025 (IEA, 2025), and Brazilian Energy Balance 2025 (EPE/MME, 2025).
In 2024, Brazil's transportation sector energy mix consisted of 25.5% liquid biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), compared to 4% globally, exceeding global projections for energy transition scenarios through 2050.2
Source: Prepared by the author based on the World Energy Outlook 2025 (IEA, 2025) and the Brazilian Energy Balance 2025 (EPE/MME, 2025).
-1 World 1.5°C 2050: The trajectory the world must achieve by 2050 to be consistent with limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels.
2 In Brazil (2024), the energy mix includes 6.1% biodiesel and 19.4% ethanol; globally (2024), liquid biofuels account for 4% of the mix; in the 1.5°C World projections (2050), the share is expected to reach 12% for liquid biofuels and 1% for biomethane.
The share of biofuels in the energy mix has increased steadily in recent years.3 Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of biofuels in Latin America and the world's second-largest producer of liquid biofuels.4 The country has mandatory blending requirements for ethanol in gasoline sold to end consumers, as well as for biodiesel in diesel fuel, and vehicles can also operate exclusively on hydrated ethanol. These measures aim to reduce the transport sector's dependence on fuel imports, which represents the country's largest share of final energy consumption5 -as well as to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The high share of renewables in the energy mix is the result of public policies and investments in renewable energy implemented in Brazil since the 1940s, initially through the development of hydroelectric generation and, beginning in the 1970s, through the promotion of biofuels, notably the National Alcohol Program (Proálcool).More recently, the National Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio) and the Fuel of the Future Law have played an important role. These public policies, implemented effectively and in an integrated manner over time, have been key instruments in promoting energy security, expanding infrastructure, and diversifying the energy mix.
Reinforcing its leadership position, Brazil has the most renewable energy mix among G20 countries.
Source: Prepared by the author based on the Statistical Review of World Energy 2025 (Energy Institute, 2025) and the Brazilian Energy Balance 2025 (EPE/MME, 2025).
-3 The share in 2023 was 22.5%. According to the Brazilian Energy Balance 2025, the increase in bioenergy consumption in 2024 compared to 2023 was driven by substantial growth in transport sector consumption of biodiesel (19.2%, or 1,128 ktep) and ethanol (15.6%, or 2,517 ktep).
4 WEO, 2025.
5 According to the Brazilian Energy Balance 2025, final energy consumption in Brazil's transport sector reached 95,832 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent (ktep) in 2024, representing 35% of the final energy consumption mix, followed by the industrial sector with 91,417 ktep, accounting for 33% of the final energy consumption mix.
In 2022, Brazil's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were approximately 2 GtCO₂e, with 71% originating from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) - including deforestation - as well as agriculture and livestock. The energy sector accounted for a smaller share, representing only 21% of total emissions - a figure well below the global average of nearly 70% (base year 2024) -highlighting the distinctive characteristics of Brazil's energy mix compared to the global context.
Source:
Global: Prepared by the author based on the Emissions Gap Report 2025 (UNEP, 2025)
Brazil: Prepared by the author based on the National Inventory 2024, base year 2022 / GWP AR5 (MCTI/SIRENE, 2025), and the Brazilian Energy Balance 2023, base year 2022 (EPE/MME, 2023)
The oil and gas sector accounted for 12% of energy-sector GHG emissions and approximately 2% of Brazil's total emissions.6 In turn, Brazil's total GHG emissions account for 3.5% of global emissions, while Brazil's energy sector represents 1% of total GHG emissions from the
global energy sector.7
-6 2023 data extracted from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG).
7 Emission Gap Report (UNEP, 2023), GWP AR5 (MCTI/SIRENE, 2025) e Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 2023 Report (JRC/IEA, 2023).
Energy consumption per capita in Brazil is approximately one-quarter of the per capita consumption observed in certain developed countries and remains below the global average.
*Total Energy Supply - primary energy supply
Source: Statistical Review of World Energy 2025 (Energy Institute, 2025).
Brazil is already experiencing growing energy demand, driven by population growth, urbanization, and the need to expand access to essential services for the entire population. As quality of life and access to goods and services improve, energy demand is increasing across the transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Consequently, per capita energy consumption in Brazil will need to rise to meet expanding socioeconomic needs.
In parallel with economic growth, Brazil is advancing its decarbonization agenda. The country has adopted consistent and ambitious targets for reducing emissions, aligned with the Paris Agreement and the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, while achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Brazil's updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to reducing emissions by 59-67% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels.8
Achieving these targets requires measures to control deforestation and modify agricultural practices, while the energy sector's contribution must focus on improving energy efficiency, electrification, and expanding the supply of sustainable fuels. The implementation of measures that enhance energy service efficiency, together with the gradual and increasing integration of sustainable fuels into the energy mix, can facilitate a fair, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
Emissions from the transportation sector are the largest within Brazil's energy mix, accounting for 50% of anthropogenic emissions in 2024 due to high energy consumption.9 This underscores the importance of integrated planning focused on infrastructure modernization, supported by investments and public policies that promote innovation and efficiency in logistics, environmental sustainability, and safety, thereby fostering mobility, economic competitiveness, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
-8 For more information on Brazil's NDC, see: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/Brazil_Second%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20%28NDC%29_November2024.pdf.
9 According to the Brazilian Energy Balance 2025 (EPE, 2025), total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions associated with Brazil's energy matrix reached 431.3 million
tCO₂e, with emissions from the transportation sector accounting for 214.3 million tCO₂e.
With the aim of aligning with international commitments and ensuring energy security, Brazil's current agenda incorporates policies designed to support established energy sources, featuring a range of priority and cross-cutting initiatives to establish a legal and institutional framework that fosters a just and inclusive energy transition, addresses energy poverty, and ensures access to more sustainable energy sources.
Source: Business Plan 2026-30 (Petrobras, 2025).
The integration of the National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation of the National Policy on Climate Change, particularly through the Climate Plan, has been implemented as part of sectoral dynamics and energy planning, aiming to identify the most cost-effective alternatives for emissions reduction and the achievement of the intended objectives.
The definition of Brazil's national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2035 included a detailed sectoral assessment of mitigation measures, reflecting the specific dynamics of each economic sector. Among the key actions to achieve these targets, initiatives addressing land-use change stand out, both in public and collective territories, as well as in private rural areas, which account for the largest share of national emissions.
In the energy sector, the main measures include the growth of renewable electricity generation, the sustainable expansion of biofuel production and use, and the decarbonization of urban mobility and transportation sectors. The plan also foresees the development of emerging carbon removal technologies associated with bioenergy production (BECCS), as well as the decoupling of economic growth from rising emissions, promoting a development trajectory compatible with long-term climate neutrality.
A just energy transition in Brazil represents a challenge that involves increasing per capita energy consumption to ensure access to basic needs for a significant portion of the population-still affected by energy poverty, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors-and expanding competitive energy sources to support industrial development. At the same time, this process must align with Brazil's national GHG emission reduction targets, as established in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and with international cooperation, thereby enabling an orderly energy transition that balances renewable and fossil fuel production while taking regional capacities and needs into account.
Petrobras in the Just Energy Transition
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Petrobras in the Just Energy Transition
In line with Brazil's commitments, our 2050 Strategic Plan sets out our trajectory as a Brazilian integrated energy company, a leader in the just energy transition, contributing to social well-being, industrial competitiveness, and energy security in Brazil.
We are mobilizing our assets, logistics, financial, technological, and human resources, as well as our innovation ecosystem and partnerships, to drive change and develop solutions that enable us to pursue this path.
We account for 31% of Brazil's energy supply and aim to maintain this level of relevance through 2050, ensuring the provision of energy required for the country's sustainable growth.
Source: Business Plan 2026-30 (Petrobras, 2025).
We understand that reconciling the responsible exploration of oil and gas with low-carbon businesses is the path to advancing a Just Energy Transition. Demand for oil will remain significant across various energy transition scenarios, both in Brazil and globally. A significant portion of consumption is concentrated in hard-to-abate sectors, such as road freight transport, maritime transport, aviation, and the petrochemical industry, sectors particularly important for economic development. In Brazil, oil and gas demand is expected to remain resilient in the coming decades.
Oil and natural gas play a critical role in Brazil's energy resilience, not only as reliable energy sources but also as economic stabilizers. Furthermore, natural gas has established itself as a strategic fuel for industrial use and electricity generation, serving as a key component of the energy transition by providing the flexibility needed to complement the variability of renewable sources such as solar and wind, thereby ensuring a reliable electricity supply during periods of lower availability.
In this context, exploring new frontiers with excellence is essential to replenish reserves and maintain oil and gas production, while expanding our portfolio into new energy sources. These measures are fundamental to ensuring the security of Brazil's energy system and promoting a socially just transition.
Petrobras' oil is cost- and carbon-competitive, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per barrel produced below the global average10, reflecting production efficiency, reduced losses, and process improvements. These attributes provide dual resilience to our production.
1Breakeven Brent: the Brent price required to achieve a net present value of zero, considering only E&P projects and excluding the cost of previously made capital investments.
Source: Business Plan 2026-30 (Petrobras, 2025).
These factors provide a solid foundation for addressing future uncertainties and challenges related to climate change risks and opportunities, as well as the energy transition, as identified in different global energy transition scenarios.
-10 Environmental performance indicator 2024 (IOGP, 2024).
Energy Transition Risks
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Climate Change and
Climate Change and Energy Transition Risks
We have a long-standing track record in analyzing and managing risks related to climate change and energy transition. Risk management is integrated into our corporate methodology, allowing for a comprehensive, systemic view of risk monitoring across all areas and hierarchical levels of the company.
Risk Management GovernanceThe corporate Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) area coordinates our risk management process, establishing an integrated and systemic methodology that standardizes analyses and manages responsibilities related to risks.
The identification, assessment, and treatment of risks are carried out by the organizational units in coordination with the corporate ERM area. The Climate Change and Decarbonization department is one such unit involved in the corporate process. This process, which seeks to understand exposure to business risks, engages employees from various disciplines, enabling them to identify, assess, propose treatments for, and report potential risks across the organization, covering risks of any nature, including social, environmental, and economic.
Under our risk management governance framework, each business risk is assigned to a designated responsable. Considering the dynamic nature of risks, we conduct reassessments of the business risk matrix at least twice annually.
In addition to updates requested by the corporate ERM area, employees acting as risk owners are responsible for maintaining and promoting the management of the risks under their scope, defining, monitoring, and controlling responses to these risks.
We employ systematic tools to support the identification of risks, regardless of their type. This process allows us to map the business risk, its associated controls, the probability of occurrence, and assess its impact and severity (probability versus impact).
Impact assessments consider five dimensions: financial, image/reputation, legal/compliance, environmental/life, and social. Risk analysis enables prioritization and allocation of efforts related to action plans necessary to minimize events with potential adverse effects and maximize those that may deliver benefits.
Risk management governance is structured to involve not only Senior Management but all hierarchical levels of the company, fostering collective engagement on this topic. Risk and opportunity identification is conducted with a focus on business sustainability and value creation, ensuring that decisions remain aligned with the company's strategic objectives.
Monitoring the management and mitigation of the most significant sustainability-related risks (threats and opportunities), including those associated with climate change and the energy transition, is the responsibility of the Safety, Environment, and Health Committee (CSMS). This committee also proposes preventive and corrective actions, when necessary, and reports its analyses to the Board of Directors (BD).
The set of threats related to climate change and the energy transition is considered strategic for achieving the company's objectives. Therefore, their evolution and management are reported to the Executive Risk Committee, the Executive Board (EB), the Statutory Audit Committee (CAE), and the Board of Directors (BD).
Risks Related to Climate Change and the Energy TransitionAccording to the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), risks associated with climate change are classified into two main categories: (1) transition risks, related to adaptation to a low-carbon economy; and (2) physical risks, which concern the physical impacts of climate change.
Transition Risks
Transition risks are associated with political, legal, technological, and market changes resulting from efforts to limit global warming and promote the transition to a low-carbon economy. The company currently monitors four types of risks:
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Regulatory and Legal Risk
Monitoring is conducted through the continuous tracking of applicable climate regulations, which may result in additional costs or operational restrictions. This process ensures the early identification and interpretation of relevant changes. It also includes active participation in technical discussions with regulatory bodies and industry associations, enabling the organization not only to monitor regulatory developments but also to contribute to discussions and gain greater predictability regarding future requirements.
We maintain continuous vigilance regarding new climate requirements, such as emissions limits, technical standards, and compliance obligations, seeking to ensure full adherence to constantly evolving legislation and to prevent risks of penalties, disputes, or delays in implementing strategic initiatives.
Regarding Regulatory and Legal Risk, it is also important to highlight analyses aimed at anticipating potential impacts associated with carbon pricing, including regulated and voluntary mechanisms, by assessing effects on costs, competitiveness, and reporting obligations. We estimated the impact of this pricing scenario through portfolio value simulations, considering the costs arising from implementing a national "cap and trade" system as a mechanism to curb operational emissions, as established by Law 15.042/2024. This study considered the gradual implementation of the instrument and different carbon price ranges, varying over time from US$ 10/tCO2 to US$ 146/tCO2 in internal company scenarios and from US$ 37/tCO2 to US$ 200/tCO2 in International Energy Agency scenarios applicable to Brazil.
It is important to note that the carbon price impact has not been incorporated into the company's accounting estimates. Currently, due to uncertainties regarding the implementation and dynamics of the carbon market in Brazil, the Company considers it necessary to await the regulation of Law No. 15,042 in 2024, which establishes the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE). This regulation will provide the necessary and sufficient details to reliably and reasonably assess the impact on the cash flows of Petrobras's assets and its CGUs. In October 2025, the Extraordinary Secretariat for the Carbon Market was established to organize the SBCE, which will issue the necessary additional regulation to implement Law No. 15,042 of 2024.
Regulated Carbon Market
On December 11, 2024, Law No. 15,042/2024 was enacted, establishing the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE). The measure lays the foundation for the creation of a regulated carbon market in Brazil.
Within this market, the government sets emissions limits for companies, allocates "emission allowances" equivalent to these limits, and permits the trading of such allowances among regulated operators through a "cap and trade" system.
The law established the general rules applicable to the system, without specifying covered sectors or emissions limits. The text broadly defines the system's principles and characteristics; its governance structure; the types of assets and their respective legal and tax nature; the attributes of the supporting technological infrastructure; certain obligations applicable to regulated entities; infractions and penalties; the principles of the National Allocation Plan, which will guide the distribution of allowances among regulated entities; and the guidelines for integration with the voluntary market.
A phased implementation schedule for the SBCE has been established, including a period of up to 12 months, extendable for an additional 12 months, for its regulation.
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Market Risk
Market risk is monitored through structured analyses that assess the evolution of demand, prices, and competitiveness in the context of energy transition, as well as their impact on the company's revenue. To this end, we develop corporate scenarios that incorporate global trends, the pace of decarbonization, technological changes, and economic volatility, enabling us to project potential future impacts on our business. Additionally, portfolio resilience studies are conducted to evaluate how each product or segment responds to different combinations of prices, regulations, and transformations in the energy market.
Competitiveness in relation to low-carbon fuels is monitored considering the advancement of solutions such as biofuels, hydrogen, and electrification, assessing substitution risks and business opportunities. In addition, price dynamics and demand elasticity are analyzed to identify vulnerabilities related to changes in consumer behavior, preferences for sustainable alternatives, and emerging competitive pressures.
In this context, particular note should be made of the approval of the National Climate Change Plan (Climate Plan) in 2025, which establishes the contributions of each sector to national efforts to reduce emissions and implement Brazil's NDC through 2035, considering the specific characteristics of different stakeholders. Furthermore, the sectoral targets defined by Climate Plan will serve as references for the allocation of emission allowances within the scope of the SBCE.
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Technological and Implementation Risk
Technological and Implementation Risk encompasses uncertainties related to the research, development, and deployment of new technologies, as well as the company's ability to implement identified decarbonization initiatives. This risk is monitored through the continuous tracking of advances in decarbonization technologies, both internally and through participation in external forums, consortia, and innovation hubs.
Investments are made in Research, Development, and Innovation (R&D&I) to test and validate new solutions, enabling the early identification of those with the greatest application potential. At the same time, technological maturity is continuously assessed by analyzing readiness levels, operational limitations, integration challenges with existing infrastructure, and technical requirements for scalability. Cost-effectiveness analyses are also conducted, covering investment estimates, operating costs, energy efficiency, performance impacts, and economic viability projections.
Implementation challenges are also evaluated, including the availability of specialized suppliers, workforce training needs, risks of operational disruptions, and logistical constraints associated with the introduction of emerging technologies. In addition, factors such as competition for resources, prioritization across business segments, and financial considerations are considered.
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Litigation and Reputational Risk
Litigation and Reputational Risk are monitored comprehensively, considering both institutional integrity and the perceptions of key stakeholders. We adopt transparency practices aligned with TCFD recommendations, disclosing information on climate risks, transition strategies, and GHG emissions performance, which helps strengthen the trust of investors and society.
Structured engagement with investors, civil society organizations, and the media supports the development of relationships grounded in accountability and consistency. Participation in sustainability indices and external assessments reinforces our credibility and enables continuous benchmarking against global standards. In addition, we monitor potential climate-related litigation, ensuring awareness of trends in legal actions and supporting the adoption of preventive measures.
This dimension also includes monitoring integrity requirements associated with carbon credit, ensuring that the credits used are of high quality and aligned with international best practices.
This set of actions aims to preserve our reputation and mitigate exposure to risks arising from operational failures, inconsistencies in communications related to climate change and the energy transition, as well as regulatory and legal challenges.
Physical Risks
Physical risks are classified into:
- acute risks, which refer to isolated events such as storms, heavy precipitation, or temperature extremes; and
- chronic risks, which refer to long-term trends such as rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and sea level rise.
Our facilities are exposed to various physical risks related to climate change, including changes in wind patterns, waves, and ocean currents in offshore areas; freshwater availability constraints in onshore operations; as well as landslides, floods, droughts, wildfires, and heat waves.
Based on recent extreme weather events in Brazil and the company's in-depth assessments, in 2024 we expanded our analysis of climate-related physical risks by incorporating new factors prioritized based on materiality. These factors were maintained in 2025 and include:
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Meteo-oceanographic Changes
To assess climate-related physical risks in oceanic regions, we conducted studies and developed climate regionalization models in partnership with Brazilian and international institutions. These collaborations generate high-quality data that supports the adaptation of operations.
Studies were carried out in partnership with the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics, and Atmospheric Sciences of the University of São Paulo (IAG/USP) to simulate future atmospheric conditions, assessing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 through 2060. The analyses used global CMIP5 models (MPI and HadGEM2-ES) and high-resolution CMIP6 models (HighResMIP: HadGEM3-GC31-HM, MRI-AGCM3-2-S, MPI-ESM1.2-XR, and ECMWF-IFS-HR). A dynamic downscaling technique was applied to provide a more accurate representation of climate phenomena in the Santos, Campos, and Espírito Santo basins. Based on the results, offshore structures in these basins are adequately designed to withstand the climate changes projected for the region.
Within the scope of offshore facilities, a system of physical risk indicators is being developed to support the integrated assessment of climate change impacts, including the reliability of design parameters and operational indicators, such as the risk of interruptions to offloading operations.
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Water Scarcity and Extreme Drought
The company monitors, manages, and mitigates risks related to freshwater availability in its operations, which may arise from factors such as population growth, increasing consumption patterns, inadequate infrastructure, pollution, inefficient resource management, deforestation, wildfires, biodiversity loss, and climate change. Therefore, risk management encompasses both climate-related and non-climate-related drivers.
According to our assessment, the potential impact specifically resulting from climate change on freshwater availability for our facilities are not significant when compared with the other factors mentioned.
Risk monitoring is conducted in an integrated manner using several tools, including:
WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas, for water risk mapping;
Water Scarcity Risk Index, developed by the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), to prioritize facilities for further analysis;
Studies on current and future water availability, including alternative supply sources;
The Decision Support System developed by the University of São Paulo (USP), which uses CMIP5 climate models (HadGEM2-ES, BESM, MIROC5, and CanESM2) to assess risks and vulnerabilities related to water availability in our operations.
The physical risk associated with extreme drought primarily affects operations in northern Brazil due to reduced river levels, which impact navigability and river transport of cargo and products. To mitigate this risk and ensure operational continuity, tanker capacity was expanded through the addition of transshipment vessels, along with the evaluation of alternative fuel transportation methods.
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Floods and Landslides
The assessment of flood and landslide risks was conducted using the AdaptaBrasil platform11, developed by the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MCTI) in partnership with the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) framework, which combines three main dimensions: climate hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.
For climate hazard assessment, meteorological indicators are considered, such as maximum precipitation accumulated in one day (Rx1day) and over five consecutive days (Rx5day), derived from global and regional climate models (CORDEX/CMIP5). These models are calibrated to generate projections for the 2030s and 2050s under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high-emissions (RCP8.5)
-11 for more information, see <https://adaptabrasil.mcti.gov.br/>.
scenarios, enabling the identification of areas more prone to intense rainfall events that may trigger floods and landslides.
The use of climate hazard data supports the prioritization of the most vulnerable assets and regions. By combining hazard data with asset-specific information on vulnerability and adaptive capacity, it is possible to identify which assets should be prioritized for the implementation of adaptation measures.
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Wildfires
The Probable Futures12 platform was used to map risks related to wildfires, extreme droughts, and heat waves at high spatial resolution. The maps consider six global warming scenarios (ranging from 0.5 °C to 3 °C above the pre-industrial average for 1850-1900), presenting minimum (5th percentile), central tendency (median or mean), and maximum (95th percentile) values for each location, supporting the analysis of future risks.
The Wildfire Danger Days parameter probabilistically estimates the increase in climatological wildfire risk, excluding human ignition factors. This indicator projects the number of days conducive to wildfires under future warming scenarios (+1.5 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C) compared with the historical baseline.
- Heat waves
To assess heat wave risks, the Days above 38 °C parameter from the Probable Futures platform was used, which indicates the annual number of days with temperatures exceeding 38 °C in each region. Based on this analysis, Petrobras' Health department coordinated a working group to develop regional heat protection protocols, focusing on worker health and considering the specific characteristics of each region in Brazil.
-12 for more information, see <https://probablefutures.org/>.
Integrated Adaptation Plan
Building on the findings of the 2025 Climate Change Supplement, we highlight the progress achieved by the Adaptation Working Group, established in 2024 in response to extreme weather events in Brazil.
In 2025, the company strengthened existing immediate measures aimed at ensuring business continuity and operational safety, such as expanding tanker capacity to enhance resilience to extreme drought events, as well as training healthcare professionals to respond to climate-related emergencies. In the medium term, hydrological studies are being updated, and guidelines are being developed to protect workers during extreme heat waves. Over the long term, structural adaptation measures and the expansion of green spaces are being evaluated to progressively prepare the company for future climate-related events.
Based on these deliverables, objectives and key performance indicators were defined to support the implementation of the Climate Adaptation Plan, including climate risk management for assets, strengthening territorial and supply chain resilience, and enhancing adaptation governance integrated with ESG indicators.
The adaptation agenda has fostered multidisciplinary initiatives, such as the launch of the Public Call for Socio-environmental Projects on Nature-Based Solutions - Climate Adaptation and Urban Resilience, led by the Social Responsibility department in partnership with the Climate Change and Decarbonization department and the Ministry of the Environment. This initiative aims to support adaptation in vulnerable urban areas in the states of São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul, promoting climate justice and urban resilience.
In addition, the company's Environment and Health division incorporated climate resilience analysis to prioritize actions defined in the Biodiversity Action Plans (PAB) for its assets. Furthermore, a multidisciplinary working group was established to develop protocols for protecting workers exposed to heat, reinforcing the company's commitment to health, safety, and adaptation to emerging risks.
The table below provides a summary of the main transition and physical risks related to climate change, including their categories, descriptions, time horizons, and the corresponding controls and actions planned by the Company. This structure is intended to present a clear and objective overview of the initiatives adopted to mitigate potential operational impacts, aligning risk management with the Company's commitments to sustainability and corporate resilience.
RISKS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENERGY TRANSITION
RISK CATEGORY | RISK | DESCRIPTION | TIME HORIZON13 | KEY CONTROLS AND PLANNED ACTIONS |
Transition | Market |
| Medium |
|
Risks | low-carbon energy and | and Long | restrictions on the sale of fossil products | |
products, together with | Term | and/or incentives for commercialization | ||
preference for fossil | of renewable alternatives in our corporate | |||
products with lower GHG | scenarios. | |||
intensity in production |
| |||
processes, may reduce | resilience analysis compared with | |||
demand for oil and | accelerated transition scenarios. | |||
consequently lower fossil |
| |||
product prices. In Brazil, | portfolio and identified that 99% of our | |||
demand for fossil products | investment projects present positive NPV | |||
may be affected, for | underprice assumptions from the IEA APS | |||
example, by regulatory | scenario (2024), aligned with the Paris | |||
incentives such as the | Agreement. | |||
Future Fuel Law and |
| |||
sectoral developments | carbon and established the ambition to | |||
arising from the National | achieve operational emissions neutrality | |||
Policy on Climate Change | by 2050. | |||
and the National Energy |
| |||
Transition Policy, aiming to | commercialization of low-carbon fuels | |||
meet Brazil's emission | and products, increasing our presence in | |||
reduction targets. | ethanol, biodiesel and biomethane value | |||
chains, aiming to meet market demand | ||||
and ensure adequate access to | ||||
feedstock. | ||||
| ||||
low-carbon businesses, such as renewable | ||||
generation (wind and solar), low-emission | ||||
hydrogen and carbon capture (CCUS). |
13 Criterion adopted for the time horizon: short term (1 year), medium term (1 to 5 years), and long term (over 5 years).
RISK CATEGORY | RISK | DESCRIPTION | TIME HORIZON13 | KEY CONTROLS AND PLANNED ACTIONS |
Transition Risks | Technological and Implementation |
| Medium and Long Term |
|
Transition Risks | Regulatory and Legal |
| Medium and Long Term |
|
RISK CATEGORY | RISK | DESCRIPTION | TIME HORIZON13 | KEY CONTROLS AND PLANNED ACTIONS |
Transition Risks | Litigation and Reputational |
| Medium and Long Term |
|
Physical Risks | Water Scarcity |
| Medium and Long Term |
|
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PETROBRAS - Petróleo Brasileiro SA published this content on May 14, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on May 14, 2026 at 12:21 UTC.
