Gold just crossed $5,000 an ounce. Silver is at record highs. Shares of gold miners and critical metals companies are jumping. Even obscure corners of the mining world are suddenly fashionable again. Futures on Wall Street were slightly down this morning.

That nervousness has many parents. Start with politics, where unpredictability has become a policy stance. Donald Trump has recently shown he can dial things down, backing away from tariff threats against Europe over Greenland, for example. Markets welcomed the reminder that provocation doesn't always end in follow-through. But the relief fades quickly when the next headline arrives. Over the weekend, Trump warned Canada that it could face a 100% tariff if it deepens trade ties with China.

This kind of whiplash explains why investors hedge even while stocks hold up. Equity markets are down only modestly, and for the year they're still positive. That resilience reflects faith in earnings power, especially in the United States. Fourth-quarter profits are expected to rise more than 9% from a year earlier. This week alone, more than 100 S&P 500 companies report results, including four members of the so-called "Magnificent Seven": Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla.

These companies now carry an extra burden. It's no longer enough to talk about artificial intelligence; they have to prove it pays. With tech valuations already stretched, even a small disappointment - or vague guidance - could force investors to rethink a trade that has come to feel almost risk-free. Intel's recent plunge after forecasting weaker results was a reminder that faith can evaporate fast.

While stocks are still finding their balance, bonds are flashing yellow lights. U.S. Treasury markets are jittery, but Japan is where the real anxiety lives. The yen has been swinging wildly, at one point flirting with levels that raised intervention fears. A technical move by the New York Fed hinted at possible coordination with Japan - something not seen in 15 years. Japan's prime minister has openly talked about pushing back against speculation.

The worry isn't just about currency drama. It's about what happens if Japan's long-standing financial logic breaks. Rising yields, falling stocks, and a weakening yen - the so-called "Triple Yasu" - would signal deeper mistrust in policy. Japanese investors are among the largest holders of foreign bonds. If higher domestic rates pull that money home, global debt markets could feel it very quickly. The famous carry trade has many admirers, but it has even more enemies when it unwinds.

Back in the United States, domestic politics are adding friction of their own. Democrats are threatening to block funding legislation ahead of a January 30 deadline, raising the risk of a partial government shutdown. Protests over immigration enforcement in Minneapolis - following the death of a U.S. citizen - have drawn in major companies and forced a presidential response. Vice President JD Vance has called for greater cooperation with ICE, while Trump has ordered a review after what was described as a botched communication effort by federal agencies.

Nature, meanwhile, has joined the pile-on. A major winter storm has left more than a million households without power and canceled roughly 10,000 flights. Airlines are bracing for days of disruption.

Globally, the list of flashpoints keeps growing. China is continuing a high-level military purge, with its top-ranking officer reportedly under investigation. In the energy world, the U.S. is watching Iran closely, even as it pushes for lower oil prices and eyes Venezuela as a potential supply release valve. Trump wants gasoline at $50 a barrel and has urged American companies to invest heavily in Venezuelan oil after the removal of Nicolás Maduro - an ambitious plan that analysts say may still fall short.

Through all of this, central banks are trying very hard not to make things worse. The Federal Reserve begins its policy meeting this week, and markets overwhelmingly expect rates to stay put. After a series of quarter-point cuts late last year, officials are signaling patience. Fewer than two additional cuts are expected through the end of 2026. Inflation fears have cooled, but not disappeared. Adding intrigue is the open question of who Trump might nominate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is also facing a Justice Department probe. 

So why haven't markets cracked? Because investors are making a calculated bet. The positives - economic resilience, AI-driven investment, strong corporate earnings, and a belief that political threats may soften in practice - are concrete. The negatives, for now, are mostly scenarios. Dangerous scenarios, yes, but still hypothetical.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany; in the United States, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, durable goods orders, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 96,855
  • Gold: $5,080
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $65.84 (WTI) $61.01
  • United States 10 years: 4.20%
  • BITCOIN: $87,776

In corporate news:

  • A massive winter storm across the U.S. caused over 3,600 flight cancellations, with American Airlines, JetBlue, Delta Air Lines, and Republic Airways among the most affected, and over 820,000 customers losing power, especially in Tennessee.
  • Dominion Energy estimates that the cold snap affecting the U.S. is likely to have one of the most significant operational impacts ever recorded in winter.
  • Morgan Stanley is entering Japan's volatile physical power market to start spot power trading and provide energy hedging solutions, marking a strategic expansion into electricity trading. 
  • The United States is in talks with Chevron, Baker Hughes, SLB, and Halliburton to quickly restart production in Venezuela.
  • Baker Hughes reported higher Q4 earnings and revenue, beating analyst expectations with strong adjusted profit results.
  • Halliburton launched a $27.5 million innovation lab in Singapore to accelerate development of well completion technologies.
  • Marathon Petroleum has started labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers union ahead of a contract expiration, potentially affecting thousands of petrochemical workers.
  • Tyson Foods will maintain limited operations at its soon-to-close Nebraska beef plant, temporarily keeping 292 employees.
  • Morgan Stanley's broader strategic moves include expansion in Asia (e.g., secondary IPO support in Hong Kong) and growth of physical trading capabilities.
  • Amazon plans to launch a new phase of 14,000 job cuts as part of its reorganization plan — on top of the previously announced 30,000 cuts.
  • Eaton Corporation is finalizing the acquisition of Ultra PCS Limited to enhance its aerospace and defense segment.
  • Nvidia is close to approving Samsung's HBM4 chips for use in its AI accelerators, with Samsung preparing for mass production.
  • AI startup Synthesia, backed by Nvidia and Microsoft, raised $200 million at a $4 billion valuation to expand AI video training tools.
  • IonQ is acquiring chipmaker SkyWater Technology for $1.8 billion to advance quantum computing hardware.
  • Biogen and Eisai announced that the FDA accepted their application for a weekly autoinjector version of Leqembi, granting priority review for early Alzheimer's treatment.
  • Merck & Co. is no longer in talks to acquire Revolution Medicines, ending acquisition discussions due to price disagreements.
  • Visa is expanding operations in the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar by forming a new regional division with a dedicated leader.
  • PayPal partnered with NEO PAY to enable cross-border payments for UAE businesses.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Amazon.com, Inc.: Phillip Securities downgrades to accumulate from buy and raises the target price from USD 260 to USD 290.
  • Intel Corporation: CITIC Securities Co Ltd upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 38.90 to USD 60.30.
  • Meta Platforms, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 740 to USD 900.
  • National Storage Affiliates Trust: Wolfe Research upgrades to peerperform from underperform.
  • Netflix, Inc.: Phillip Securities upgrades to accumulate from sell and reduces the target price from USD 950 to USD 100.
  • Solventum Corporation: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from sector weight with a target price of USD 97.
  • United Airlines Holdings, Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of USD 123.80.
  • Albemarle Corporation: Wells Fargo maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 135 to USD 174.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: CICC maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 50.40 to USD 64.40.
  • Merck & Co., Inc.: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 95 to USD 115.
  • Sandisk Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 273 to USD 483.
  • Schlumberger Limited: Oddo BHF maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 42 to USD 60.