Following a pre-close conference call with the Head of Investor Relations, analysts at the U.S. investment bank expect, unsurprisingly, that the French group's first-quarter revenue will be relatively soft.

However, inventory trends, robust order intake for Dacia and Renault (Clio 6), electric powertrains (Twingo), and light commercial vehicles (Master) are laying the groundwork for a stronger second quarter.

Furthermore, the automaker's IR director eased concerns regarding Dacia's sluggish start to the year, noting that the brand had faced logistics and production disruptions in North Africa. He also clarified that the Bigster model is expected to attract new customers rather than cannibalize Duster sales.

Jefferies also noted that March registrations offset some of the weakness seen in the first two months of the year, though inventories are trending toward the upper end of the 500,000 to 550,000 unit range, suggesting that wholesale sales will receive no contribution from restocking.

The analysts are maintaining their full-year estimates but have nudged their first-quarter revenue target up by 1% to 11.08 billion euros, which nonetheless represents a 5% decline compared to the first three months of fiscal 2025. They added that this slight upward revision is primarily driven by double-digit growth at the financial subsidiary (Finco).

The rating on Renault shares remains a Hold, with a price target of 31 euros.