The economy is still growing. Jobs are still being added. Stocks are still near record highs. And yet, everywhere you look, there's a sense that the old playbook is being gently but firmly retired.

For years, strong job growth meant big monthly numbers and constant upside surprises. Now the White House's own economic advisers are saying that job gains may slow, and that this isn't a problem. Population growth is easing. Productivity is improving. Fewer workers can produce more output. In other words, a smaller number doesn't automatically mean a weaker economy.

This reframing matters because the Federal Reserve is listening. Markets largely expect interest rates to stay put for months, even as inflation data and delayed employment reports trickle in. The Fed's challenge is no longer stopping an overheating economy, it's deciding how much slowing is healthy versus harmful. That decision could soon fall to a new chair, depending on Senate confirmation. Either way, the era of emergency-level policy is clearly over. What comes next is more ambiguous.

Capital spending on AI infrastructure has ballooned. Returns, at least so far, are harder to pin down. Software stocks have taken the brunt of that skepticism, suffering sharp declines even as broader markets recovered. Major banks are dialing back their enthusiasm. Investors are no longer sure whether they're witnessing a long-term shift or just another crowded trade looking for the exit. Nvidia's upcoming results have taken on an almost symbolic weight.

One fresh data point underlines just how delicate this adjustment phase really is. December retail sales came in flat - no growth at all - missing expectations for a solid increase. Household spending has been the main engine keeping the economy moving forward, even as higher interest rates squeezed budgets. A flat month suggests consumers are becoming more selective, less impulsive, and more cautious about the months ahead.

For the broader economy, this is a yellow light, not a red one. Slower spending helps cool inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve more room to stay patient on rates. At the same time, it reinforces the idea that growth is shifting from speed to balance. The era of consumers endlessly absorbing higher prices may be fading.

Meanwhile, money is moving elsewhere. Small- and mid-sized companies are getting a second look. International markets are back in favor after years in America's shadow. The logic is simple: if U.S. dominance narrows even slightly, the rest of the world suddenly looks cheap.

The corporate picture reinforces this mixed mood. Some companies are thriving by raising prices and growing their user base. Others are stumbling, punished swiftly for missing revenue targets or offering cautious guidance. The message from markets is blunt: optimism is allowed, but only if you can prove it. Hype alone no longer clears the bar.

Outside the stock ticker, the administration is preparing to dismantle the legal foundation of federal climate regulation, a move that would reshape energy, transportation, and manufacturing for years to come. At the same time, Congress is pushing back on proposals to limit investor ownership in housing, exposing tensions between populist instincts and legislative reality. Trade relations with close allies are strained by threats and tariffs, even as global supply chains remain deeply intertwined. 

Europe continued its ascent yesterday, brushing aside the somewhat worrying background noise coming from the United States. Just one decline in seven sessions for the Stoxx Europe 600, which therefore posted a record close at 621.41 points, it had climbed a touch higher intraday last Wednesday, without being able to hold the distance. The secret of the index? Traditional sectors firing on all cylinders: double digit gains since 1 January for energy, basic materials and utilities. Only one sector is in the red, consumer cyclicals, mainly luxury and autos. In the United States, software stocks are fighting back. After being battered last week, the software sector is attempting to recover, benefiting from buying interest encouraged by the sharp falls in some names. You do not catch falling knives, except sometimes. For example, Oracle gained 4.7% on Friday and 9.6% yesterday, trimming its 2026 decline to 20%. Volatility remains high as earnings season continues, particularly in this software sector unsettled by the emerging competition from AI.

The dollar remains under close watch. Currency traders flinched yesterday when Bloomberg reported that China is advising its banks to reduce their exposure to US debt. 

Corporate news is busy, with results from stalwarts such as Coca-Cola, S&P Global, Robinhood and Datadog.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's schedule includes: the BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the United Kingdom; NAB Business Confidence in Australia; the unemployment rate in France; in the United States, employment costs, retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, and Fed speeches. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 96,912
  • Gold: $5,029
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $69.14 (WTI) $64.35
  • United States 10 years: 4.17%
  • BITCOIN: $68,497

In corporate news:

  • Coupang was blamed by South Korean authorities for a massive data breach affecting about 33.7 million users, citing management failures and weak authentication controls rather than a sophisticated cyberattack.
  • BlackRock reduced its long position in Flat Glass Group H-shares to 6.40% from 7.19%, according to an HKEX disclosure.
  • Meta Platforms unit WhatsApp won a ruling from the EU's top court allowing its challenge to a €225 million GDPR fine to be reconsidered by a lower tribunal.
  • Pix, Brazil's instant payment system, is projected by Ebanx to account for about 50% of the country's e-commerce transactions by 2028, surpassing credit cards.
  • Salesforce cut fewer than 1,000 jobs across several departments, including marketing and AI-related units, as part of ongoing restructuring.
  • Carlyle agreed to invest $232 million for a majority stake in Edelweiss Financial's housing finance arm Nido Home Finance in India.
  • Uber Technologies agreed to acquire Getir's delivery portfolio in Turkey from Mubadala, starting with full ownership of its food delivery business.
  • Shanghai Shiling Pharmaceutical aims to complete global trials by 2028 for a semaglutide-based nasal spray competing with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy.
  • Brookfield Asset Management is in exclusive talks to buy Spanish residential landlord Fidere from Blackstone for about $1.2 billion.
  • Cisco Systems launched a new Silicon One G300 AI networking chip to compete with Broadcom and Nvidia in high-speed data center infrastructure.
  • Oracle announced new AI agents within its Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications to help businesses improve efficiency and resilience.
  • Smurfit WestRock will permanently close a paper machine and an extrusion facility in Quebec, cutting 90 jobs amid cost pressures.
  • Citigroup appointed Ankur Khurana as head of Citi Commercial Bank in India as part of its Asia expansion strategy.
  • Apollo Global Management named Diego De Giorgi as its incoming head of the EMEA region.
  • Norse Atlantic delivered the final Boeing aircraft under its leasing and services agreement with IndiGo.
  • Roblox was called to meet Australian officials over concerns about child grooming and harmful content, with regulators testing its safety commitments.
  • Amazon is planning an AI content marketplace that would allow publishers to sell content to artificial intelligence companies, according to media reports.
  • Nio is recalling more than 246,000 vehicles due to a software issue that can cause temporary screen blackouts, to be fixed via updates.
  • Blackstone and TPG received Chinese regulatory approval to acquire medical diagnostics firm Hologic in an $18.3 billion take-private deal.
  • Newmont said it is taking steps to address performance issues at its Nevada Gold Mines joint venture with Barrick Mining following IPO-related concerns.
  • Alphabet attracted many investors in a USD 20 billion bond offering and plans to issue a 100-year bond in sterling, as well as a transaction in Swiss francs.
  • Meta and YouTube (Alphabet) are on trial in California for organising the addiction of young users.
  • Salesforce has quietly laid off employees as part of a new wave of job cuts, according to Business Insider.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Estee Lauder: HSBC downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 105 to USD 106.
  • Linde Plc: DZ Bank AG Research downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of USD 460.
  • Monday.com Ltd.: Baird downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 175 to USD 90. 
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: Daiwa Securities upgrades to buy from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 200 to USD 180.
  • Qualcomm, Inc.: Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an underweight rating and a target price of USD 132.
  • Sirius Xm Holdings Inc.: JP Morgan upgrades to neutral from underweight and raises the target price from USD 20 to USD 24.
  • Snap Inc.: Arete Research upgrades to buy from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 8.60 to USD 7.30.
  • Stellantis N.v.: Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg upgrades to buy from hold with a price target reduced from EUR 9.60 to EUR 7.70.
  • Transocean Ltd.: Fearnley Securities downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 3.90 to USD 5.30.
  • Vistra Corp.: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 191 to USD 203.
  • Apple Inc.: Guotai Haitong Securities maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 256 to USD 321.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 38 to USD 46.
  • Coinbase Global, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 399 to USD 290.
  • Coty Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from EUR 3.50 to EUR 2.10.
  • Devon Energy Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 35 to USD 46.
  • Doximity, Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 45 to USD 34.
  • Dynatrace, Inc.: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 65 to USD 50.
  • Hims & Hers Health, Inc.: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 68 to USD 30.
  • Intuit Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 810 to USD 624.
  • Kkr & Co. Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 167 to USD 132.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 500.
  • Molina Healthcare, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 165 to USD 109.
  • Newmont Corporation: Stifel Canada maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 120 to USD 175.
  • On Semiconductor Corporation: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 56 to USD 70.
  • Paypal Holdings, Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 61 to USD 42.
  • Tapestry, Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 108 to USD 148.
  • The Hershey Company: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 137 to USD 166.
  • The Timken Company: Loop Capital Markets maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 83 to USD 105.
  • Workday Inc.: UBS maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 240 to USD 170.
  • Zoominfo Technologies Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 13 to USD 9.