According to futures contracts on the indices, Paris's CAC 40 is expected to post a modest 0.1% gain at the open, hinting at a timid rebound after seven consecutive sessions in the red, while Frankfurt's DAX is set to remain unchanged and London's FTSE would rise by 0.1%.
While investors' concerns remain focused on trade issues, a semblance of calm—or at least an absence of negative developments—appears to have returned to the markets after the heavy turbulence at the start of the week.
This fragile uptick in optimism seems to be driven in particular by comments deemed rather reassuring from Donald Trump, who said last night before flying to Davos that he was confident in the ability to reach an agreement on Greenland, one that would satisfy both the United States and its NATO partners.
During her address at the Swiss winter resort, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, also sought to ease tensions by reminding that Arctic security could only be ensured "together."
"That is why the proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies," she emphasized, recalling that Brussels and Washington reached a trade agreement last July.
"And in politics, as in business, a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something," von der Leyen added, while refraining from mentioning any potential retaliatory measures against the United States.
"As is often the case, Trump barks a lot, but doesn't bite," notes Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush. "Tariff threats serve as a negotiating weapon, before an inevitable easing with the EU," he predicts.
While the trend should benefit from the apparent lull in the trade dispute, it could prove relatively short-lived, as the American president is set to deliver a highly anticipated speech today at 2:30 p.m. at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
In addition to possible details on customs policies, the American billionaire mainly plans to outline his geopolitical vision for the Middle East and detail his "Peace Council" initiative, which is intended to restore calm to the region.
"Barring a surprise decision, it seems unlikely that volatility will quickly subside in equity markets," cautions Alexandre Baradez, head of market analysis at IG France.
"This episode of heightened geopolitical tensions between allied countries is deeply concerning and comes at a bad time for bond markets, as tensions persist over rates in Japan," he notes.
In Asia, the trend in equity markets remains downward, despite the easing that is beginning in Japanese bond yields. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index lost just over 0.4% by the end of the session.
American stock markets also remain highly volatile. After losses of more than 2% last night on Wall Street, futures on New York indices point to a slightly higher open, but the trend could be heavily influenced by Trump's statements in Davos.
Risk appetite was not fueled by Netflix results, which outperformed expectations in the fourth quarter but offered cautious forecasts for 2026, amid its planned merger with Warner.
Investors will also be watching the latest inflation figures from the United Kingdom, which is expected to have continued to slow in December, as well as U.S. construction spending data, with particular attention to data center spending, which has recently shown some signs of slowing.
Return to a Fragile Calm Ahead of Trump's Speech in Davos
European stock markets are expected to see only minor movements on Wednesday morning, as the temporary truce in trade tensions between the United States and Europe has not been enough to spark a marked return to risk assets.
Published on 01/21/2026 at 02:39 am EST
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