Investors are welcoming the improvement in business activity seen at the end of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. During these three months, organic growth reached 3.8%, compared to a consensus of +3.5%, according to Oddo BHF. Jefferies echoed this view, noting that the growth was driven by a sequential acceleration in North America (despite a tougher comparison base), still fueled by data centers, while Europe remains mixed.

Over the full year, the global specialist in multichannel distribution of products and services for the energy sector saw its revenues grow by 0.7% to 19.414 billion euros on a reported basis. Current EBITA rose by 2.1% to 1.163 billion euros, while operating profit jumped 25.5% to 1.061 billion euros. Net profit, for its part, posted significant growth of 73.4% to 591.4 million euros.

2026 Targets

For the current fiscal year, Rexel anticipates mixed trends across different geographies, with a particular acceleration in North America and improving trends in Western Europe, especially in the second half. Additionally, the company expects an increase in sales prices and cost inflation.

As a result, like-for-like sales growth is expected to be between 3 and 5%, while the adjusted current EBITA margin is forecast at around 6.2%. In the medium term, sales growth is expected between 5 and 8%, including 2 to 3% from targeted acquisitions, and an adjusted EBITA margin above 7%.

According to Oddo BHF, the 2026 targets are based on an assumed copper price of $11,000 per ton, compared to $13,000 currently. This gap could increase the impact of cable prices by more than 1% for the fiscal year.

On this subject, UBS explains that, generally, a $500 increase in copper prices implies a 0.4% rise in revenue growth, but it is necessary to account for a time lag, currency effects, and different dynamics when prices rise sharply, as has recently been the case.

Analysts remain cautious, as reflected by UBS, which maintains a neutral rating with a price target of 35 euros, and Oddo BHF, also neutral, with an upwardly revised target from 32.50 to 36.20 euros. Jefferies is less ambitious, setting a price target of 32 euros and a hold recommendation.