SB1 Markets has reiterated its Buy recommendation for SSAB with a price target of SEK 100. The call follows a preliminary EU agreement to restrict steel imports and impose 50 percent tariffs on volumes exceeding fixed quotas.

The research house views the announcement as a positive catalyst for the European steel industry and for SSAB specifically. Much of the prevailing political uncertainty is being removed, while the structure of the measures is expected to have a significant impact on both production and pricing across Europe.

The agreement limits duty-free imports to just over 18 million tonnes per year, representing a marked reduction from current levels. This should curb imports and provide support for both prices and volumes in a market currently characterized by low capacity utilization, the analysts noted.

For SSAB Europe, which accounts for approximately half of the group's volumes, analysts forecast an improvement in EBIT per tonne of around EUR 50 between 2025 and 2026, with volumes remaining largely stable. At the same time, there is further upside should the market strengthen. A 5 percent increase in volume would translate to approximately SEK 600 million higher EBITDA compared to the base case scenario.

SB1's EBITDA forecast stands at SEK 14.5 billion, well above the consensus of SEK 13 billion. Higher capacity utilization in European steel mills, rising from the current 60-65 percent toward approximately 70 percent, could also contribute to firmer pricing.