Shell Keeps $3.5 Billion Buyback Despite Slide in Earnings -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 1.1% to $68.68 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 4.2% to 34.91 euros a megawatt hour.

--Gold futures are down 0.9% to $4,908.1 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.4% to $12,988.50 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Shell Keeps $3.5 Billion Buyback Despite Slide in Earnings

Shell maintained its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback despite lower oil prices hitting earnings.

Energy companies are positioning themselves for a period of weaker prices amid stunted growth in oil demand and high supply. That has put pressure on returns, but Shell's stronger balance sheet relative to peers means its shareholder returns have been more resilient.

This quarter's buyback is the British energy major's 17th consecutive quarter buying back at least $3 billion in shares. European peers BP, TotalEnergies slowed the pace of their buybacks last year, while Equinor cut its 2026 buyback Wednesday.

OTHER STORIES:

Silver Plunges After Brief Rebound as Volatility Remains High

Silver prices tumbled after a brief two-day rebound, as volatility remains elevated and the market struggles to find footing following last week's historic selloff.

In midmorning European trade on Thursday, New York futures traded 7.6% lower to $78.01 a troy ounce, while spot silver slid 11.1% to $78.56 an ounce. The white metal surged above $120 last month during a breaking-record rally, before plunging more than 30% last Friday.

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The $100 Billion Bet on Venezuelan Oil Relies on a Broken State Company

During President Trump's first term, his administration asserted that executives at Venezuela's state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, embezzled billions of dollars and used company aircraft to traffic in cocaine. Now it wants U.S. companies to go into business with the Venezuelan giant.

The Trump administration is counting on foreign entities working with the Venezuelan state oil company to fuel what the American president hopes will be a $100 billion investment boom in the South American country's energy industry. That is setting up a legal minefield for investors that have to go through PdVSA (pronounced peh-deh-VEH-sah) to tap Venezuela's vast oil wealth.

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Sasol Expects Earnings Decline as Crude, Chemicals Prices Fall

Sasol said it expects a drop in earnings for the first half of fiscal 2026 mainly due to prices for Brent crude and chemicals.

The South African chemicals-and-energy group said its results for the six months ended Dec. 31 were hit by a 17% decline in the average price of South African rands per barrel of Brent crude oil, and a 3% fall in the dollar-per-ton chemicals basket price.

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Barrick Aims for IPO of North American Gold Assets This Year

Barrick Mining is pushing ahead with plans to separate its North American gold operations into a separately listed company in which it plans to retain a controlling stake.

The Toronto-based miner said Thursday that after financial and operational analysis by management, its board concluded an initial public offering represents the best path to maximizing value for shareholders.

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Pandora Turns to Platinum Jewelry to Offset Silver Volatility

Pandora said it would start selling platinum-based jewelry as part of a shift away from silver, as newly installed Chief Executive Berta de Pablos-Barbier seeks to protect profitability from big swings in precious-metal prices.

The move by the Danish jeweler illustrates how historic rallies in the prices of gold, silver and other metals are prompting companies across sectors to rethink their material sourcing and, in some cases, look for substitutes.

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Anglo American Cuts 2027 Copper Guidance as Production Declines

Anglo American lowered its 2027 copper guidance as production fell in the fourth quarter.

The London-listed miner on Thursday cut its 2027 copper production guidance to between 750,000 and 810,000 tons from 760,000 and 820,000 tons.

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Steelmaker ArcelorMittal Eyes Boost From Europe's Protections

ArcelorMittal said European measures to protect domestic steel production could boost its market share on the continent, as the company looks to arrest the decline in earnings booked last year.

The steelmaker said Thursday that it is confident of netting greater market share in Europe over the coming year due to European Union measures designed to protect an industry that has struggled in a sea of high global steel capacity, especially among Chinese competitors.

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Pandora's New CEO Plans to Introduce Platinum-Plated Jewelry to Counter Silver Prices

Pandora said it aims to expand the range of precious metals used in its jewelry portfolio as part of the strategy of its newly installed Chief Executive Berta de Pablos-Barbier to reduce dependence on silver.

The Danish jeweler is navigating the uncertainty around changes in precious-metal prices as well as other headwinds such as foreign exchange rates, and tariffs in the U.S.

MARKET TALKS:

Anglo American's 2027-28 Copper-Production Forecast Disappoints -- Market Talk

1113 GMT - Anglo American's fourth-quarter production was mixed and included copper-production guidance cuts for 2027 and 2028, J.P. Morgan analysts write in a research note. Those downgrades were less anticipated than the company's dimmed forecast for 2026 copper production and are broadly below consensus estimates by JPM and Bloomberg, the analysts say. The 2027-28 copper forecast leads JPM to expect low-to-mid-single-digit downgrades to Ebitda estimates for those years. Shares in the London-listed miner fall 1% to 35.25 pounds. ([e-mail])

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India's Deal With U.S. to Avoid Russian Oil Unlikely to Hurt Economy, Says BofA -- Market Talk

1031 GMT - India's deal with the U.S. to stop buying Russian oil is unlikely to hurt India's economy, says Rahul Bajoria, India and Asean economist at Bank of America. As oil prices have fallen to around $60-$70/bbl, the discounts that India gets on Russian crude have been minimal and not a big driver of savings, Bajoria says. He estimates savings of around $1 billion-$3 billion, or around 2% of India's import bill each year. Given that around 30%-35% of India's monthly crude supplies were coming from Russia, it will take time for that to be replaced, though there has already been some meaningful reduction in forward contracts, Bajoria adds. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Prices Fall Amid Concerns Over Rising Output -- Market Talk

1011 GMT - Palm oil prices ended lower on concerns over rising output in the coming months, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Recent ringgit strength also weighs on market sentiment. The trader sees prices supported above MYR4,150 a ton and resistance at MYR4,300. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery closed 17 ringgit higher at 4,208 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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European Gas Prices Rise on Late-Season Cold Worries -- Market Talk

0912 GMT - European natural-gas prices rise in early trading, with the benchmark TTF contract up 3.4% to 34.65 euros a megawatt hour. "Traders remain concerned that the risk of a late season cold spell could boost demand," analysts at ANZ Research say. "Inventories are only 40% full and another cold blast could accelerate withdrawals at a critical time." By contrast, China and Japan are expected to see milder-than-usual temperatures in the coming weeks. With China's nationwide averages at or above seasonal norms, demand for LNG for heating and power is likely to ease, reducing competition for Europe. ([e-mail])

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Copper Back Below $13,000 on Weaker Demand Signals, Rising Supply -- Market Talk

0848 GMT - Copper prices fall back below $13,000 on signs of softer demand, with futures on the London Metals Exchange down 0.5% to $12,973 a metric ton. Inventories have begun to rise in LME warehouses in Asia, signaling softer consumption, while additional supplies are expected after traders redirected spot cargoes from Africa into China to exploit a brief arbitrage opportunity between Shanghai and London prices, according to ANZ Research. Sentiment was further weighed down by a forecast from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association that refined copper output will rise about 5% this year, following a 10% increase in 2025, analysts at ANZ say. ([e-mail])

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Gold Below $5,000 as Firmer Dollar Weighs -- Market Talk

0839 GMT - Gold prices edge lower in early trading, holding below the $5,000 mark in the absence of fresh catalyst and amid a stronger dollar. Futures in New York fall 0.1% to $4,944 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index --which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies--is up 0.1% at 97.71. "A stronger USD weighed on investor appetite," ANZ analysts say. "This offset any gains coming from rising haven buying as geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East." Any sustained upside is likely to depend on continued buying from China, where physical demand has been strong ahead of the Lunar New Year, according to the analysts. Meanwhile, silver slides 5% to $80.17 an ounce. ([e-mail])

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Oil Falls After U.S.-Iran Agree to Hold Talks

0837 GMT - Oil prices fall after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday. Brent crude is down 1.6% to $68.35 a barrel, while WTI slides 1.7% to $62.90 a barrel after settling more than 3% higher in the previous session, when the talks seemed in danger of collapsing. Uncertainty surrounding the negotiations is expected to keep a risk premium priced into the market, driven by fears of possible U.S. strikes on Tehran and a wider confrontation in the oil-rich region, analysts say. Separately, the latest EIA data showed crude stockpiles fell by 3.5 million barrels last week as a decline in production due to winter storm Fern partially offset a rise in imports. ([e-mail])

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Pandora's New Plan Seems Positive Amid Silver Volatility -- Market Talk

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02-05-26 0654ET