Day trader and stock market personality John Skogman has placed bets on outdoor companies ahead of earnings season, as well as on riskier investments like SBB's D share. This is revealed in an interview with Dagens industri.
Given that the fourth and first quarters are somewhat "weather quarters" in Sweden, Skogman is putting his faith primarily in New Wave, Revolution Race, and Wesport, with the latter two representing his largest stakes.
“The stock has dropped, expectations are low, and we're right in the middle of the winter season. That points to a good Q4 and Q1. That's my big bet,” he says.
He also mentions holding a “wild card position” in medical technology company Getinge and a stake in game developer Pandox, whose stock is “battered and expectations are low.”
Regarding SBB's D share, Skogman describes it as “a high-risk case you can hardly afford to be without.” What gives him the courage to hold the stock is the shareholder structure, with CEO Leif Synnes among those holding a significant number of D shares.
“If SBB is to survive long-term, the D share must be resolved. And since the CEO himself is heavily invested in the D share, there's a strong case that D shareholders won't be left empty-handed – whether the solution is a resumed dividend, conversion, or something else,” he says, estimating there is over 100 percent upside if the issue is resolved.
He further comments that he is still holding Kambi, a favorite in the betting sector, though not as large a position as before, and that his foreign speculative investment is in Snapchat's parent company, Snap.
“I've bought Snapchat. They're changing their business model and the stock is grotesquely undervalued. Cash flow may turn positive and there's even acquisition potential,” he says.
When it comes to short positions, he has a significant bet against defense giant Saab, and says he is “terrified of raw materials companies,” especially Lundin Gold.
“I'm shocked at how quickly mining companies move when the underlying commodity price swings. Leverage works just as well downward as upward. For me, Lundin Gold is played out – and I have no short position there,” Skogman says.
SAAB AB is a world leader in the design, manufacturing and marketing of defense and security systems and equipment for military, space and civil sectors. Net sales break down by family of products and services as follows:
- electronic defense systems (33.4%): radars, sensors, submarine and terrestrial airborne surveillance systems;
- armament equipment and systems (25.6%): military equipment, missile systems, weapon systems, ammunition, armed forces identification systems, camouflage systems, etc. The group also provides security and defense solutions (combat systems, training, simulation, security and communication solutions, air and sea traffic management systems, etc.);
- aeronautical systems (24%): military aircraft, combat aircraft, avionics, etc.;
- naval systems (11.8%): submarines, combat ships, underwater mine detection systems, etc.;
- support services (4.2%): provision of services in the areas of systems development, integration and security, information security, communications, technical information, logistics, etc., and technological consulting in the fields of aviation, defense, telecommunications, etc.;
- other (1.1%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Sweden (41.1%), Europe (25.8%), North America (8.9%), Asia (7.4%), Latin America (4.3%), Australia (3.8%), Africa (0.6%), and other (8.1%).
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