(corrects to Paradox from Pandox in the fourth paragraph)
Day trader and stock market personality John Skogman has placed his bets on outdoor companies ahead of the reporting season, as well as on more risky investments such as SBB's D share. This is revealed in an interview with Dagens industri.
Given that the fourth and first quarters are something of "weather quarters" in Sweden, Skogman chooses to put his faith in New Wave, Revolution Race, and Wesport, with the latter two representing his largest bets.
“The stock has gone down, expectations are low, and we are right in the middle of the winter season. That points to a good Q4 and Q1. This is my big bet,” he says.
Additionally, he reports holding a “wild card position” in the medtech company Getinge and an investment in game developer Paradox, whose stock is “beaten down and expectations are low.”
As for SBB's D share, Skogman describes it as “a high-risk case you can hardly afford to be without.” What gives him confidence to take the position is the ownership structure, where CEO Leif Synnes, among others, holds a significant number of D shares.
“For SBB to survive long-term, the D share must be resolved. And since the CEO himself is heavily invested in the D share, there is a strong case that D shareholders won't be left empty-handed – whether the solution is resumed dividends, conversion, or something else,” he says, estimating there is over 100 percent upside if the issue is resolved.
He further comments that he is still holding on to Kambi, a favorite in the betting sector, but not with as large a position as before, and that his foreign speculative investment is in Snapchat's parent company, Snap.
“I've bought Snapchat. They're changing their business model, and the stock is grotesquely undervalued. Cash flow could turn positive, and there is even acquisition potential,” he says.
When it comes to short selling, he has a large position in defense giant Saab and is “terrified of raw materials companies,” especially Lundin Gold.
“I'm shocked at how quickly mining companies move when the underlying commodity price swings. The leverage works just as well downwards as upwards. For me, Lundin Gold is played out – and I have no short position there,” Skogman says.
SAAB AB is a world leader in the design, manufacturing and marketing of defense and security systems and equipment for military, space and civil sectors. Net sales break down by family of products and services as follows:
- electronic defense systems (33.4%): radars, sensors, submarine and terrestrial airborne surveillance systems;
- armament equipment and systems (25.6%): military equipment, missile systems, weapon systems, ammunition, armed forces identification systems, camouflage systems, etc. The group also provides security and defense solutions (combat systems, training, simulation, security and communication solutions, air and sea traffic management systems, etc.);
- aeronautical systems (24%): military aircraft, combat aircraft, avionics, etc.;
- naval systems (11.8%): submarines, combat ships, underwater mine detection systems, etc.;
- support services (4.2%): provision of services in the areas of systems development, integration and security, information security, communications, technical information, logistics, etc., and technological consulting in the fields of aviation, defense, telecommunications, etc.;
- other (1.1%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Sweden (41.1%), Europe (25.8%), North America (8.9%), Asia (7.4%), Latin America (4.3%), Australia (3.8%), Africa (0.6%), and other (8.1%).
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