By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for March delivery fell 1.4%, to $10.47 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with traders expecting a relaxed supply-demand outlook in 2026 to damp prices.

--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.8%, to $5.06 1/2 a bushel.

--Corn for March delivery rose 0.1%, to $4.41 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Rocky Outlook: Traders are looking for soybean prices to face a number of hurdles heading into the new year after a positive 2025. Even with China buying more U.S. soybean exports, South American production is expected to be strong with little in the way of hostile weather to derail those crops. U.S. farmers are also expected to plant more soybeans, in part in reaction to soybeans finishing 2025 with a better performance than corn or wheat. "Analysts are currently calling bean plantings up anywhere from 4 to 6 million acres," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note.

Light Work: Grain futures stayed mixed throughout Wednesday. Outside of speculation around 2026 supply-and-demand fundamentals, prices continue to be moved by geopolitical flashpoints. "Black Sea fighting continues to rage on but that risk is mostly offset by Taiwan and U.S.-China relations, at least in the grain market's eyes," said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. "Little other fundamental news is available."


INSIGHT


Photo Finish: The average rate of ethanol production in the last week of December returned to historically high levels, the EIA said. The average for the week ended Dec. 26 landed at a rate of 1.12 million barrels a day, up 25,000 barrels a day from the prior week and bringing average production closer to a record-high of 1.131 million barrels a day set earlier in the month. Stronger ethanol output comes as analysts and traders watch for more regulatory news from the EPA or DOE regarding renewable fuels.

Take a Breather: The cost for fertilizers eased in the last week of 2025, but remain well above where they were at this time last year, said research firm DTN. Prices for seven of the fertilizer ingredients the firm follows dropped from the previous week, it said. Posting the biggest decrease were prices for diammonium phosphate, which slid 6%, to $866 a ton. Fertilizer is a major input cost for farmers, and those prices creeped back up in 2025, potentially signaling another unprofitable year for farmers in 2026.


AHEAD


--The USDA and CME will be closed in observance of New Year's Day on Thursday, reopening on Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-31-25 1517ET