By Anthony Harrup
--Soybeans for January delivery settled down 1.5%, at $10.76 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday as concerns remain that Chinese purchases aren't meeting earlier expectations.
--Corn for March delivery fell 1.3%, to $4.40 3/4 a bushel.
--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.8%, to $5.29 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Sour on Soybeans: Grains futures closed broadly lower, led by soybeans, which remain under pressure from concerns that Chinese purchases, while increasing, aren't meeting prior expectations. "Purchases from China have not lived up to the expectations from late October," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said in a note. Still, China has been buying U.S. soybeans and is expected to buy more, "which will be supportive for the market on pull-backs," he added.
Speaking of China: The USDA reports flash export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year, as well as 104,328 tons of soybean cake and meal to Mexico--93,895 tons for the current marketing year and 10,433 tons for 2026/27. Private exporters also reported sales of 250,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Bumper Crop: The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its estimate for Argentina's wheat crop by 3.2 million metric tons to a record 27.7 million tons, citing the highest ever planted acreage and "unthinkable yields." If the estimate is realized, 2025/26 production will be up by 37% from the previous year, the exchange said. The harvest is about 58% complete. In addition to the record wheat crop, the Argentine government this week lowered export taxes on grains.
INSIGHT
Funds Decide: The pullback in soybean futures is as much about technicals and positioning as it is about China, Arlan Suderman of StoneX said in a note. Delayed commitment of traders data now available up to Nov. 10 show a swing to a net long managed money position of 203,476 contracts from a net short of 24,742 contracts on Sept. 23.
The flip came in October after President Trump said he would talk soybeans with Chinese President Xi, but the slow start to the agreed purchases led to profit-taking in mid-November, Suderman said. "China has stepped up its purchases, and we estimate that it has already purchased more than 7 million metric tons in the cash market out of the 12 million it committed to buying. Yet, that's not likely to be the market focus until prices reach the chart objectives of the funds."
Right Kind of Rain: The weather outlook for South America looks "nearly ideal" for crops in both Brazil and Argentina, AgResource said. The firm notes "the right mixture of near-to-above normal rainfall in Brazil and no extreme heat," while the Argentine forecast has shower and storm potential starting Dec. 19, with more regular rainfall to follow. AgResource said it "expects that private South American crop estimates will improve if this wet weather pattern can be sustained through the first half of January."
AHEAD
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report covering the week ended Nov. 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its monthly Agricultural Prices report at 3 p.m. ET Monday.
--The CFTC will release its Commitment of Traders report covering the week ended Nov. 18 at 3:30 p.m. ET Tuesday.
--General Mills will release its second quarter 2026 earnings at 7 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-12-25 1524ET
