Stock markets slide; traders bet on ECB rate hike in July

(Alliance News) - European stock markets opened Thursday's session in negative territory, reflecting a macro-financial context characterized by increased risk aversion and a significant revision of monetary policy expectations.

Market sentiment remains weighed down by energy commodity trends and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rising oil prices, amid a lack of concrete signs of de-escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, are fueling fears of new global inflationary pressures, with particularly significant impacts for a net energy-importing economy like the Eurozone.

In the currency market, the euro continues its weakening trend, falling toward the USD1.15 area and touching its lowest levels since late November.

In this scenario, money markets are rapidly recalibrating expectations for European Central Bank rates. A rate hike by July is currently fully priced in, with an estimated 85% probability of a second hike by December. This represents a significant shift from late February, when traders assigned approximately a 40% probability to a rate cut by the end of the year.

Consequently, the Mib is posting a loss of 0.3% at 44,647.54.

Among other European indices, the CAC 40 is down 0.4%, the DAX 40 is shedding 0.2%, while the FTSE 100 is retreating by 0.3%.

The Mid-Cap is marking a 1.3% decline at 55,387.18, the Small-Cap is trading 0.9% lower at 34,316.24, and Italy Growth is yielding 0.1% at 8,451.69.

On Piazza Affari, among the blue chips, Leonardo stands out as one of the few gainers, rising 7.2%. The company approved its 2025 results and 2026 guidance. The group closed the fiscal year with a net profit of EUR1.3 billion, up 15% from EUR1.15 billion the previous year. The board also proposed a dividend of EUR0.63 per share, a 21% increase over the previous year's EUR0.52 per share.

The board of Assicurazioni Generali - up 0.3% - announced on Thursday that it had approved accounts showing a net profit of EUR4.17 billion, up 12% from EUR3.72 billion in the previous fiscal year. The board of directors will propose a dividend of EUR1.64 per share, an increase of nearly 15% from the EUR1.28 paid last year, and a EUR500 million buyback plan, confirming the group's commitment to strengthening shareholder returns.

BPER Banca - in the green by 0.2% - announced on Wednesday that it had approved the 2025 results previously communicated on February 4. The year closed with a consolidated net profit of EUR1.88 billion, up from EUR1.44 billion in 2024. The ordinary consolidated net profit at year-end stood at EUR2.10 billion, before EUR288.6 million recorded in the fourth quarter as one-off integration costs and EUR181.8 million for PPA impact.

Enel is shedding 0.6%. Notably, Deutsche Bank increased its target price on the stock to EUR10.00 from the previous EUR8.50 per share.

Saipem, meanwhile, is retreating 2.1%, heading for its third bearish session if confirmed at the close.

On the cadet segment, WIIT is taking a 7.4% step back. On Wednesday, it approved the 2025 fiscal year accounts, closing with an adjusted net profit of EUR16.5 million, a 12% increase compared to the EUR14.8 million recorded in 2024. The consolidated figure stood at EUR10.4 million, up from EUR9.3 million last year. The board also proposed a gross dividend of EUR0.30 per outstanding share, in line with last year.

Webuild is yielding 4.8%, despite an excellent set of 2025 accounts, which saw adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders rise to EUR280 million from EUR247 million in 2024. The board proposed an ordinary dividend of EUR0.081 and a coupon of EUR0.26 per savings share, unchanged from last year.

The board of ERG - in the red by 5.1% - approved the 2025 accounts late Wednesday, closing with a net profit of EUR65 million, down from EUR187 million in the previous year. The proposed dividend is EUR1.0 per share, unchanged from last year.

Italmobiliare - down 0.4% - announced on Wednesday that it has launched a new buyback plan for a maximum of 300,000 shares for a consideration of EUR10 million.

Strength for Salvatore Ferragamo, which is up 7.2% after a 0.3% loss on Wednesday evening.

On the Small-Cap, Seri Industrial is advancing 4.3%, following a 3.2% decline in the previous session.

Geox Spa - in the green by 0.7% - announced Wednesday that it closed the 2025 fiscal year with a loss of EUR16.2 million, an improvement over the EUR30.3 million loss recorded in 2024, despite the group incurring non-recurring costs of EUR12.1 million during the year related to restructuring the operating model to improve efficiency and sustainability.

Esprinet - in a volatility auction - announced Wednesday that it closed 2025 with a net profit of EUR20.2 million, down from EUR21.5 million recorded in 2024. Pre-tax profit rose to EUR31.6 million from EUR28.9 million in the previous year, while net profit per ordinary share stood at EUR0.41 compared to EUR0.44 in 2024.

Landi Renzo is shedding 4.4%, following yesterday evening's 3.7% loss.

Among SMEs, Farmacosmo is advancing 4.7% to EUR0.51 per share, following a 1.5% gain the previous day.

Datrix - up 1.8% - announced Thursday that it will be a partner of Wired Health Beyond, an event dedicated to healthcare innovation scheduled for March 18 at BASE in Milan. Participation marks the group's official entry into the Healthcare market, where the company intends to offer artificial intelligence solutions aimed at hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, and healthcare organizations.

Maps - not yet traded - announced Wednesday that it has been awarded a new digital healthcare project in the Abruzzo Region, with a total value of approximately EUR1.9 million, half of which has already been ordered.

In New York overnight, the Dow Jones fell 0.6%, while the S&P 500 closed down 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.

Among Asian markets, the Hang Seng retreated 0.7%, the Nikkei closed down 1.0%, while the Shanghai Composite ended the run shedding 0.1%.

On the currency front, the euro is changing hands at USD1.1584 from USD1.1643 on Tuesday, while the pound trades at USD1.3384 from USD1.3452 yesterday evening.

Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD97.62 per barrel from USD92.62 per barrel on Wednesday, while gold is worth USD5,180.96 per ounce from USD5,167.50 per ounce yesterday evening.

Thursday's macroeconomic calendar includes Italian quarterly unemployment data at 1000 CET, while a BTP auction with three-year, seven-year, and 15-year maturities will be held at 1110 CET.

At 1330 CET, initial jobless claims will be released from the US, while at 2130 CET - as every Thursday - the Federal Reserve's weekly balance sheet will be published.

Among companies, numerous results are expected, including Banca Mediolanum, Credito Emiliano, Safilo Group, Caltagirone, and Banco di Desio e della Brianza.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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