By Ed Frankl
Switzerland's annual rate of inflation was unchanged in the first month of 2026, reinforcing expectations that the Swiss National Bank will keep rates on hold at its next meeting.
Consumer prices were 0.1% higher in January than in the same month of last year, matching the rate of December, Switzerland's statistics office said Friday.
Inflation remains toward the bottom end of the SNB's target for annual inflation of 0%-2%, though it last fell below zero in May. The Swiss franc appreciated against the U.S. dollar in January, which makes Switzerland's imports cheaper but exports less attractive to foreign buyers. The Swiss franc was barely changed on the inflation data.
While the bank hasn't ruled out taking rates into negative territory, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel has repeatedly said the hurdle to doing that is higher than lowering them when rates are above zero. Switzerland had negative interest rates for more than seven years until 2022.
The SNB in December lowered its expectations for inflation to average 0.3% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027. Investors expect the central bank to hold rates when it next meets in March, and throughout 2026. It held its key rate at 0% for a second straight meeting in December, after six consecutive quarterly cuts.
Even if inflation falls below zero for a few months, the SNB will likely stand pat this year, given policymakers are more concerned with medium-term inflation than monthly readings, Pantheon Macroeconomics Europe Economist Ankita Amajuri said in a note to clients.
"We expect inflation to pick up gradually in the final quarter of the year and to reach the midpoint of the SNB's target range in 2027. Further appreciation of the franc, however, could deepen imported deflation and poses downside risks to our headline forecast in the coming months," she added.
Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-13-26 0411ET
