Tensions in Iran Sink Futures; Spotlight on Oil

(Alliance News) - Futures are pointing to a sharply lower open for European stock markets following the outbreak of war in Iran, after an attack by the US and Israel triggered a violent response from the Islamic republic.

On Monday, Israel bombed Lebanon, expanding the conflict in the region after the massive Israeli-American attack against Iran, launched by US President Donald Trump to overthrow the regime in Tehran.

Israeli forces bombed targets throughout Lebanon, including Beirut, after Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim armed movement backed by Tehran, fired rockets at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Large-scale attacks were also underway in the heart of Tehran, according to Israeli forces, while the US military expanded its targets across Iran on Sunday.

The FTSE Mib is indicated down 805.0 points or 1.7% after

London's FTSE 100 is seen down 72.4 points or 0.7%, Paris' CAC 40 is expected to fall by 165.5 points or 1.9%, and Frankfurt's DAX 40 is projected to drop 567.8 points or 2.3%.

On Friday evening in Milan, the Mid-Cap closed down 0.4% at 59,976.64, the Small-Cap rose 0.6% to 36,502.64, while Italy Growth gained 0.2% to 8,728.25.

At Friday's close, Saipem showed notable strength, ending up 2.6% at EUR3.57 per share. UBS raised Saipem's target price to EUR3.80 from EUR3.40 with a 'buy' recommendation.

Parent company Eni climbed 1.5% to EUR19.65. Notably, UBS raised the target price to EUR21.00 from EUR18.00, while Barclays raised theirs to EUR22.50 from EUR20.00.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena announced Friday the approval of its 2026-2030 industrial plan, titled "From deep roots to new frontiers, a leading competitive force in banking," which follows the successful public tender offer and exchange on Mediobanca, with a participation rate of 86.3%. The plan foresees the merger by incorporation of Mediobanca into MPS, with expected full-synergy savings of EUR700 million.

Banca Monte dei Paschi fell 6.8% while Mediobanca shares retreated by 6.2%.

FinecoBank, on the other hand, dropped 1.8% to EUR19.99 per share. UBS Research confirmed its 'buy' rating with a target price of EUR23.80, compared to a market price as of February 26 of EUR20.49, ahead of the March 4 Capital Markets Day, seen as a potential positive catalyst.

Analyst Adele Palama highlights that new strategic and financial targets for 2026-2029 on key variables could drive estimates in the coming years.

In the mid-cap segment, ERG showed strength, closing up 4.2% at EUR24.94 per share. A2A – down 0.4% on the Mib – responded to press rumors about possible deals with ERG, clarifying that such considerations fall within the group's normal strategic analysis activity.

Iren, meanwhile, gained 2.9% to EUR2.84 per share, marking its third consecutive positive session.

Alerion closed up 2.5% at EUR18.90 per share, following a 1.2% gain the previous day.

MAIRE – down 0.4% – continues its buyback program. Most recently, it announced it had acquired 448,496 of its own ordinary shares between February 20 and 26, for a total value of EUR6.9 million.

Sanlorenzo, on the other hand, ended down 2.9% at EUR33.35 per share, after a 1.0% gain on Thursday evening.

In the Small-Cap segment, Eurotech showed strength, rising 1.7% to EUR1.07 per share, continuing its upward trend. Over the last five sessions, the stock has posted a gain of more than 27%.

The board of doValue – up 8.1% – on Thursday approved preliminary results for 2025. The net loss stood at EUR8.2 million, compared to a profit of EUR1.9 million in 2024. Adjusted net profit, which excludes non-recurring items, more than tripled to EUR25.3 million from EUR6.7 million. In light of these results, the dividend proposal to be submitted to the next board meeting is expected to be in line with the group's dividend policy.

Olidata rose 4.8% to EUR1.90. On Thursday, the company denied press reports regarding possible interest in acquiring the Salernitana football club. In a statement, the board stressed that "neither the company nor any other company in the Olidata group is involved in negotiations regarding a possible purchase of the football club."

The Italian Sea Group closed down 5.4%, at the bottom of the list with a price around EUR2.08 per share.

Among SMEs, Pozzi Milano – up 3.1% – announced Thursday it closed 2025 with revenues of EUR26.0 million, highlighting a significant consolidation of the group's performance. The figure "confirms the ability to generate significant volumes in the second part of the year, in line with the natural seasonality of the business and reference sector," the company stated.

Mare Group – up 0.9% – reported Friday that, since the start of 2026, in the Infrastructure & Building sector, the La SIA division has acquired new orders totaling EUR4.3 million, up 38% from the same period in 2025. The new orders, mainly linked to strategic national infrastructure and major institutional clients, include high-tech and specialist contracts ranging from engineering design to structural inspections.

Dedem – up 3.8% – announced it closed 2025 with consolidated net profit of EUR1.8 million, down 18% from EUR2.2 million in 2024. The board proposes to allocate the profit to the legal reserve for EUR85,297.93, to cover losses for EUR1.4 million, and to cover the negative reserve for EUR132,022.87.

Finanza.tech, on the other hand, fell 6.8% to EUR0.27, after a flat session the previous day.

In Asia, the Nikkei is down 1.4% at 58,057.24, the Shanghai Composite is up 0.5% at 4,182.59, and the Hang Seng is down 2.2% at 26,046.45.

In New York, the Dow Jones closed Friday down 1.1% at 48,977.92, the Nasdaq lost 0.9% at 22,668.21, and the S&P 500 finished down 0.4% at 6,878.88.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD1.1726 from USD1.1814 at Friday's European stock close, while the pound is at USD1.3372 from USD1.3449.

Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD78.70 a barrel from USD72.69 a barrel Friday evening, while gold is valued at USD5,385.17 an ounce from USD5,255.19 an ounce.

Among the main events on Monday's economic calendar, between 0915 CET and 1030 CET, manufacturing PMIs for Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be released.

At 1445 CET, the same data will be released for the US, followed at 1500 CET by the ISM figure.

Among companies on Piazza Affari, results are expected from Anima Holding, ICOP, and Lottomatica Group.

By Giuseppe Fabio Ciccomascolo, Alliance News senior reporter

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